Tuesday, November 17, 2009

I was encouraged about the market action I saw yesterday, a run at new highs on an uptick in volume with lagging sectors participating. Here is a quote from yesterday “Small caps (IWM), Transports, (IYT) and Real Estate (IYR) all out performed today on better than average volume which was encouraging.”

I realized this evening that the big pick up in volume came in the afternoon on the downside after Meredith Whitney started talking. If my calculations are correct roughly 20% of the day’s volume in the SPY came in 4 bars on the downside late in the afternoon (that does not include the last 10 minute bar).

I am not one much for Japanese Candlestick theory but it also looks like we may have put in a reversal hammer on the dollar index yesterday followed by a green bar today. Feel free to correct me here I am not really sure about this stuff.

On to more conventional issues, volume today was awful, the lightest since the Columbus Day holiday. Despite the lackluster action in the broader market commodities specifically ags (think POT) and metals (think XME and its components) acted great. XME looks like it wants to break out over 50 and POT has broken out of a consolidation going back to the middle of June.

It maybe time that we start to consider what a somewhat stronger dollar does to the markets going forward.

The following ideas maybe actionable for tomorrow:
aapl 208/208.71
amed 38 short
bcr 82
bdx 74
cenx 10
ceco 26
itg 19 short
pbr 52

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