On Tuesday I wrote “we may have put a reversal hammer in on the dollar index followed by a green candle.” Since then the dollar index has trended higher and equities have gone lower. Nothing really dramatic mind you but if this trend continues the 20 day MA could cross over the 50 day on the upside in the dollar index, and conversely in the SPY. This is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Internally underperformance of key sectors continues, financials (xlf), energy (uso, oih, dig, ung) and semis are really lagging. It also appears that there significant levels are building in AAPL 208 and transports (IYT) 73.50.

Conventional wisdom is that the market has had a great year and that no one is going to let it fall apart now and ruin the year. I agree with that for the most part and don’t expect a lot of fireworks but we need to keep an eye on these levels.

My only other observation is on the VIX , SPY and t bills. The VXX (vix etf) is trading at 52 week lows on big volume while the SPY is trading near the highs on an expiration Friday on the lightest volume in almost 2 months. Meanwhile the T-bill yield turned negative for the first time since the Lehman collapse. Not quite sure what to make of that.

Thanksgiving is obviously out there but this coming week does have some potential market moving economic events.

Monday 10:00 existing home sales

Tuesday 8:30 GDP 9:00 Case Shiller 10:00 Consumer Confidence 2:00 FOMC Minutes

Wednesday 8:30 Durable Goods, Personal Income & Jobless Claims 9:55 Consumer Sentiment 10:00 New Home Sales 10:30 Petroleum #’s

Also don’t discount the chance that the White House does an 11th hour news drop. Sorry I am a suspicious type.

The following ideas could be actionable early next week but I would caution you to look for volume and relative strength or weakness because I am not sure that it will be the week for big momentum moves.

agu 58
cern 75 short
cmp 66ish
ges 36 short
omi 38.75 short