Merry New Year

From all of us on The Right Edge Merry New Year!

For the most part it was a pretty quiet day in the markets. GS did manage to break through the down trendline20 & 150 day ma’s so it looks like it may be headed up to the 50 day ma around 170.


I often stress the importance of volume in trades. It lends conviction to the idea and allows you to size up. On Monday I posted in my trade ideas A 30.50. Today the trade worked nicely. Even on a quite weak volume day this one stood out like a sore thumb because of its good volume on a quiet day. This was a perfect example of what I am looking for. Good volume and relative strength, and a nice smooth base. I hope you caught it.

Speaking of good volume the Volatility Index etf (VXX) had its biggest one day bar of volume maybe ever. I am not quite sure what this means but it really jumps out at you on the screen, you can’t miss it. It could be short covering or it could be someone looking ahead to the New Year with volatility pretty low.

A couple of interesting technical situations are close in the gold market. GDX is having a tough time catching a bid in this stronger dollar environment. The 20 day MA is about to roll below the 50 day MA for the first time since the beginning of August. There is some support at the 150 day ma (43.68) and then again down at the 200 day 41.80. GLD bounced off of the 105 support level back on 12/22 and may test it again soon. If it doesn’t hold 105 there should be pretty good support down at the 150 day MA (99.75) this roughly coincides with $1000 an ounce for gold, and is at this point major support.

The Dollar index held the 150 day MA (77.61) which is now support with minor resistance at 78.45 (high on 12/22) and then up at the 200 day MA (79.16)

The FXI (think the Chinese DJIA) is setting up to test the 150 day Ma again. It held last time and traded some decent volume at that level. This time the 20 day MA is solidly below the 50 day MA so it will be important for it to hold here. Next support is down at the 200 day 39.15.

Looking ahead to next week on Monday we have ISM mfg index Tuesday pending home sales Wednesday FOMC minutes and on Friday the employment situation.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but look for good volume and relative strength otherwise pass and put your party hat on.

acor 26

amgn 58

anss 44

dlb 48

ffiv 53.1

hrs 48

mrx 27.5

rah 61

slab 49.1

stx 18.5

tsco 54.6

vmc 54

Not much for tomorrow or the rest of the year. Baring some unforeseen disaster we should close on or around the highs and then who knows what the new decade brings.

GS is still acting funky and all I can say is if you want to take a position look for some volume in it to confirm the move. Away from that I have little else for tomorrow. I will be doing little blogging or trading until next week so Happy New Year and may the trend always be your friend.

The following ideas may be actionable be really be picky and look for good volume and relative strength.

alxn 49
amgn 58
vmc 54
apc 65

GS tried to take out the down trend line and 20 day MA this morning before rolling over and closing near the lows. Usually this would make me concerned but he didn’t take out any major support levels and the volume was so light that I’m not sure that it matters.

Crude oil and the airlines reacted to the terrorism headlines from over the weekend and tech names specifically AAPL, AMZN, IBM and GOOG continue to act like champs.

Case Shiller at 9:00 tomorrow and Consumer confidence at 10:00 so be very selective in you’re trading for the rest of the week and look for good volume before taking any of these trades. Breakouts have not really been working well in this low volume environment.

noc 57
a 30.5
bwld 43
ffiv 53
hrs 47.56
netl 48
nmm 15
syna 30
urs 46

The SPY finally broke out of its range on Thursday and put in a new 2009 closing high. It came on light holiday volume and I expect more of the same this week.

AAPL turned around and is at all time highs so now people will be looking at GS and the other major financials. Traders are trying to figure out if GS is the canary in the coal mine or if he is going to join the party. The down trend line and the 20 day MA coincide at 165 and support lies down at 160. A lot of eyes will be on those levels so keep those alerts on your system. The market hasn’t seemed to care about GS and his underperformance but that will likely change soon.

The following ideas may be actionable this week but really look for volume and relative strength in this holiday environment.

a 30.5
acor 26
gymb 44
slb 66
stec 16.25
syna 30
urs 46
vmc 54

Merry Christmas

From everyone here on the right edge A MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL AND TO AND A GOOD NIGHT.

Another choppy day but there is still a bid under this market. Those of us that were short HIG can attest to that. The risk trade still looks in place with IWM,IYR,MDY,QQQQ,RSP,SMH, and XLK all making new 2009 highs. Also treasuries of all maturities continue to get hit.

There is potentially something interesting brewing in GS. The underperformance in GS has been on the radar screen of every trader. I can’t tell you on how many blogs I have seen this written about and how many times it has been mentioned on TV. There is a down trend line in GS going back to the 2009 high on 10/14.He tried to break through on 11/12, yesterday and then again this morning before failing.

GS is now sandwiched between the down trend line/20 day MA (165.63) and the 150 day MA (164.56).GS traded in a tight $1.80 range today on light volume, something has got to give.

A break above 167 on good volume looks like a break of the trend line with a possible move up to the 50 day MA 172.97. A significant breakdown, say a close below the 150 day MA could bring it down to support around 160. Positive action in GS could help take the SPY’s back up through the 2009 high 112.38.

The dollar index is up 13 of the last 15 sessions and may be due for a breather. That could help provide the catalyst to help take the market higher.

The following ideas could be actionable tomorrow, but with the usual caveats. Look for decent volume relative strength and use reasonable stops. These spots represent what I think a significant spots in the charts and could also be used as a place to fade the move in case the breakout/down fails. Look at HIG and CLF from today as examples.

pss 23.16
mtl 20
acor 26
ceph 60
cli 35.1
ctsh 46
qcom 46
shld 80
vly 14

A nice strong day in the market, volume was light but there was definitely a bid under the market. The dollar and equities were both strong, but I don’t know how much you can take out of a week like this. Simply put it is the end of a good year after a disaster and nobody wants to let the music stop now.

The soft areas today were gold and oil and this can be attributed to dollar strength. GLD has some support at 105 and then down at the 100 level.

The risk trade seems to be back on iym, iyr, iyt, mdy, jnk, rsp all look like they want to break out and qqqq and smh put in a new 2009 high today.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but as the week goes on be much more selective and really look for volume and relative strength/weakness.

rht 30
pss 23.16
mtl 20
hgsi 30
hig 23 short

SPY bounced off of the 50 day MA area Friday and the Dollar index is right at its 150 day MA as well as a previous support level around 78. It will be important to see if the bounce off the 50 day in the SPY holds and the dollar index backs away from the 150 day MA and prior support. If that happens we could get a nice rally in the indices into the end of the year. I think you could have a trade buying spy with a stop below 109 and shorting UUP with a stop above Friday’s high 23.20.

I think that it is important to note that the SPY move down to the 50 day was not confirmed by DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQQ, SMH, IYT or RSP. To me that says there is still bid under this market.

The fly in the ointment are the big cap financials. C, BAC, JPM, GS, WFC have all been acting terrible lately and are either right on (BAC, JPM, WFC) or beneath (C, GS) their 150 day MA. These are important levels and we are going to need strength from these guys if we are going to have a meaningful rally so keep an eye on them. A rally from AAPL back up through the 20 day (196.96) and 50 day (197.03) would also go a long way toward helping us back to the highs.

The other place people are looking is gold. The GDX traded around the 50 day for 7 sessions before failing. Its next real support looks to be down around the 150 day MA (43.44). GLD just finished day two of trading around the 50 day. If it fails the next support is down at the old September resistance level of 105.

The following ideas may be actionable early next week but be really cautious and look for decent volume and relative strength/weakness. The holiday shortened weak is not going to be the time to get aggressive. Also note that strict breakout trading has not been working great lately and that I have been having some success shorting failed breakouts with a stop above the high.

crm 68
fast 40
hans 37
infy 55
spg 78
sy 43
ttm 16

The dollar index was strong today and ran right up to its 150 MA and backed off. It will be interesting to see if this acts as lid. 78 will be a good spot to watch tomorrow. It roughly coincides with today’s high, the 150 day MA and a prior support level going back to the end of the summer.

The GDX (gold miner’s etf) had been consolidating around its 50 day MA for the last week and broke down today on heavy volume. Look for this level to act as resistance with support down around 41 and the 200 day MA. GLD also broke below the 50 and has some support down around 105.

While today’s action was not good I think the action in the financials made things feel worse than they were. Small caps (IWM), Real Estate (IYR), Semis (SMH) & Transports (IYT) are still above the 20 & 50 Day MA’s. The homebuilders (XHB) even appear to have broken down trend line stretching back to the middle of September.

The RIMM earnings should help AAPL out some, but the action in the major financials is troubling. I still believe the index’s will close the year at or close to the highs but it will be hard to have any kind of real rally with stocks like GS, BAC & JPM not participating. All three closed on the lows at or below the 150 day MA.

Option ex is tomorrow, with GDP, existing home sales, personal income, new home sales, durable goods and jobless claims all coming next week before Christmas so I am not expecting too much action after the initial excitement.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but be very selective and look for volume and relative strength or weakness. Also look at these spots as an opportunity to possibly fade the move.

expd 35
fast 40
genz 48 short
stx 17.5
sun 24.9 short
whr 80
Hig 23 could easily be a support buy look for real weakness and volume if trying short

We are still pinned between the highs and the moving averages. I still believe we will likely end the year at or near the recent highs. Weakness in financials is being countered by some strength in the small caps (iwm), transports (iyt) and even real estate (iyr).

It will be interesting to see how the market and other financials react to the Citigroup capital raise. This has been talked about for weeks so certainly it is no surprise. The spin miesters will be out saying what a healthy sign this is etc. We’ll see. I was not happy with the way the financials have been acting ahead of this may be this clears the air.

BAC, JPM & GS all have a similar chart, sandwiched between the 20 day MA above and the 150 day MA below. I am not suggesting that these three stocks hold the fate of the market in their hands, but the market is going to have a hard time mounting a strong breakout rally without them.

To be a real believer in a rally I would like to see AAPL along for the ride. The 50 & 20 day MA lie just above in AAPL so it is going to have to recapture those levels to get going. The next support for AAPL is down at last week’s lows around 188.70.

There was not much reaction to the FOMC announcement this afternoon and that may be signal for what to expect going forward. Jobless claims, leading indicators, philly fed and nat gas #’s all tomorrow, opex Friday and a holiday shortened week next week.

Be patient and look for some decent volume and relative action before taking any of the following trades. Again use reasonable stops and look at these spots as a place to possibly fade the move.

a 30.1
azo 159
csx 50.17
mrx 26.05
nsc 53.25
pru 52
vmed 17.1

I am not sure how much you can take away from this week’s markets with the Fed, Opex and Christmas and year end looming, but the dollar continues to be the focal point of the market. Strength in the dollar continues to weigh on equities, but not seriously. The SPY, QQQQ, IWM, MDY, DIA continue to be stuck between the highs and their 20 day MA. For now it is a low volume standoff.

I don’t have much for tomorrow except to say that the action in some of the more high profile stocks was less than impressive.

1. The 50 day MA continues to act like a lid in AAPL.
2. AMZN closed below its 20 day MA.
3. GS closed below its 150 day MA.
4. C closed below its 200 day MA
5. POT closed right on its 20 day MA

Like I wrote earlier I don’t know how much you can put into the day before the Fed announcement etc, but the weakness in these names and financials in general really stood out.

Fed days are the worst and I usually take off in the morning and don’t trade until well after the announcement. Tomorrow will be no exception. Watch the following alerts tomorrow but don’t take them unless you really see some strong volume and relative strength.

esrx 89.25
idxx 53
jnk 39
lava 2.6
pss 23.17
vmed 17

I took today off to attend to some personal items, Christmas shopping etc, because I knew that this would be a quiet choppy day ahead of the Fed, big economic numbers and OPEX. For the most part it seems I was not disappointed. The Dubai and XOM news was well received and it looks like every dip was bought.

AAPL managed to take back its 50 day MA and GS bounced off of its 150 day MA. GLD and USO put in green bars for the first time in a week. Small Caps (IWM) and Mid Caps (MDY) outperformed the markets the larger index’s nicely today. Transports hit a 52 week high and the Volatility Index etf (VXX) hit a 52 week low. Even the Junk bond ETF (JNK) hit a 52 week high today.

I am a great consumer of market commentary. I want to know what other people think. One of the best is Dr Brett Steenbarger of the Traderfeed blog. If you don’t read his work I highly recommend it, I read his blog every day. In a post on September 21st 2009 Dr. Brett wrote the following “Another way to assess the risk appetite of equity investors is to examine the relative performance of the unweighted S&P 500 Index (RSP) vs. its capitalization-weighted standard (SPY). If traders are bullish on the economy and risk seeking, they will tend to prefer the smallest components of the S&P 500 Index, and RSP should outperform SPY. Conversely, if traders are bearish on the economy and risk averse, they will tend to stick to the safest of the blue chips and SPY should outperform RSP.”

Today the RSP broke out of a range on the biggest bar of volume since September.

An appetite for risk returned to the market today and it looks like macro players are betting on a pop in the market.

I am not sure why you would want to get all bulled up before PPI, TIC Data, Industrial production, Housing market index, CPI, housing starts, petroleum numbers and a FOMC announcement in the next 48 hours but that is what I see. The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but I am probably going to be out until 2:15 on Wednesday. Again look for strong volume, relative strength and keep tight stops on these break out longs.

gra 25
utx 70
a 30
ads 65
ccj 32
cmg 90
expd 34
hmin 38
hsp 49
omi 43
rev 20
rs 45
swn 45.15

The market had a choppy low volume session Friday, the SPY bounced right off the 20 day MA almost to the penny, same QQQQ and IWM.

On Friday the 50 day MA for AAPL was 196.10. That level was first breached at around 10:18 the breakdown was quickly bought and the stock rebounded slightly. The buyers put stops in at the low of that bar around 195.50. When that level failed around 11:06 AAPL quickly sold off and put in the lows for the day. Not coincidentally the market followed APPL on both of these moves. I think we need to really pay attention to this level in AAPL now. GS & JPM had similar action back in October and they have not acted the same since. I single these stocks out because I think they have important psychological value to the market and have showed real leadership on the way up since the March lows.

The dollar index had a strong rally on Friday closing above its 50 day MA and a down trend line that stretches back to the market bottom in March. There should be some minor resistance around the 77.50 level. But the next major resistance level is the 150 day MA up at 77.91.

This strength has done great damage to gold and oil. If those resistance levels stop the dollar’s advance there may be an opportunity to buy this pull back in gold and oil.

The GDX is still being supported by its 50 day MA (48.47). It really needs to hold in here, a close below the 50 day on heavy volume and it is probably headed for the 150 day MA down at 43.14.

GLD has been down seven days in a row, look for a bounce off the 50 day MA around 108.

The USO is down 8 days in a row and has shot to bounce off of its 200 day MA at 35.10, with the Oil Holders etf (OIH) close to its 150 day MA at 110.12.

There are no significant economic announcements Monday but on Tuesday we have PPI, Empire State MFG, TIC Data, Industrial Production, and the housing Market Index. Wednesday hosts CPI, housing starts, petroleum numbers and a Fed announcement. So I don’t have great expectations for tomorrow.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow. Volume will be light and volatility probably higher so treat these spots as subject. Look for opportunities to fade the move and when buying pullbacks never catch the falling knife.

gymb 42
grmn 29.2 short
swm 68
jnk 38.81
rsp 39

All things considered a really quiet day in the markets. Even a poorly received bond auction couldn’t upset the apple cart. Between Christmas, Hanukah a busy economic calendar and quadruple expiration coming up I expect more of the same right through the middle of next week.

I would urge you to continue to watch the dollar AAPL, GS, JPM, OIH and USO to get a sense of where we are headed.

AAPL tested both its 20(above) & 50 (below) day MA today, something’s gotta give.

GS bounced off its 150 day MA yesterday on better than average volume and is close to breaking a down trend line starting back on 10/14. The 20 day MA also lies above at 169.97 and could provide a nice target.

The 150 day MA for JPM is 40.14 and roughly coincides with prior resistance going back to August 3rd.

OIH is also flirting with its 150 day MA and prior resistance at the 110 level.

Crude is sensitive to the dollar so when you watch the 35 level in USO (200 day MA) watch the dollar simultaneously. Theoretically they should have an inverse correlation.

All of these levels will be on my radar screen and I am going to try and use them to buy the pull back, tight stops are always part of my plan.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but remember that this is a lackluster market and that these alerts may act as targets or opportunities to fade the move. Look for good volume and relative strength /weakness.

chd 61
cree 52.5
flr 40 short
fls 94 short
jcg 45
life 51.35ish
qcom 46
sy 42.57
trw 24.5
ttm 16

The dollar index is now above its 20 & 50 day MA, and is also close to breaking a down trend line on the weekly going back to the March 9th low. If things continue as they have this dollar strength could be trouble for equities and commodities. Look at what just a modest bounce in the dollar has done to oil (USO & OIH) and gold (GLD & GDX). I know it’s a broken record, but watch the dollar.

With that in mind the market showed amazing resiliency today. If there was a day for things to get ugly this could have easily been one. Dollar strength, ugly crude, AAPL below the 50 day, GS flirting with the 150 day, Citi group capital raise, AMZN not participating in any rally, SPY closing in on the 50 day. I’m not talking 1987 but it could have become uncomfortable for the bulls. The QQQQ closed above its 20 day and the SPY closed just short of it. If these two can close above the 20 day this week on some kind of volume, I think we can easily close the year at or above the 2009 highs.

My optimism comes from my belief that no one wants to let this year close on a sour note not because of any belief in Obamanomics or that we have somehow turned the corner in this economy.

Momentum spots worked today if you were patient and allowed for a wider stop. AMSC is a good example of this. The following may be actionable tomorrow:

alb 35.5
cenx 11
eqix 103.5
rig 78.7
hs 17.4
wcrx 26.35
mnkd 7.80ish
vmed 17.1
trw 24.20ish
dg 24.15

km

How many times can I say the following, the focus of the market is the dollar and strength right now is bad for equities and especially for commodities? Technical damage in the major indexes continues to be contained, but cracks are starting to show. The DIA, QQQQ & SPY all closed below the 20 day MA. This by itself is not a disaster but the next obvious support is the 50 day MA and those need to hold.

Yesterday I wrote about AAPL, AMZN, GS & JPM. Not much has changed in those names, but GS is getting worrisome, it closed below the 150 day MA. You can now add the USO & OIH to that list. I realize that their problems are tied to dollar strength, but if this trend continues it could spell more trouble for the market.

With that said selling support is really not working on the short side. The best short opportunities are coming from selling failed breakouts. There continue to be bids underlying this market.

I am watching the following spots over the next few days. Like I said selling support is a tough game right now and the breakouts have been failing and then setting up good short opportunities. Keep all that in mind when looking at this list:

acm 24 short
alb 35.5
amsc 36
bac 14.88
bhi 37.67
eqix 103.5
gg 38.33
gold 76.6
ir 34
jpm 40.09
oih 109.85
omi 38.4 short
rgld 49.25
swn 41 short
urs 41 short

It was mostly a quiet day with low volume in the SPY and major indexes. The action was pretty choppy but there was opportunity shorting failed breakouts. TRW (24) is an excellent example of this.

Once gain the dollar was the focus of the market and strength in the dollar index lead to weakness in commodities. Oil & gold are taking this dollar strength very hard. If you are thinking about attempting any kind of support buy in these sectors you must watch the dollar.

GS & AAPL continue to concern me and you can add AMZN & JPM to the list. I point these names out because they are high profile companies and their stocks appear to be at important levels.

GS is trading just above its 150 day MA (162.52).

AAPL closed below its 50 day MA today for the first time since the market bottomed back in March and the volume was well above average. The next obvious support is down around 185.50.

AMZN put in an all time high three days ago and is trading just above its 20 day MA (133.22).

JPM is hovering above its 150 day MA (40.06).

I am going to be watching all these levels to see if we get a bounce or if the market starts to give it up. A bounce in these names should help carry us into the New Year. Failure could spell trouble but I still think we are going to hold it together.

The SPY,QQQQ,DIA,IWM,MDY are all sandwiched between the 20 day MA and the highs so the recent weakness has not caused any real technical damage, so far.

Aside from those levels the following ideas may be actionable tomorrow. Look for volume and relative strength/weakness. Also realize that breakouts/breakdowns have been difficult and that these may be levels to fade the move, especially on light volume.

apc 58 short
bucy 50 short
hmin 38
mgln 36 short
pxd 40 short
whr 80 short

The dollar is still front and center in this market. The rally in the dollar Friday crushed a strong rally kicked off by the jobs report. Commodities especially gold got hit hard on this and that sent a shiver through the equities market. Keep your eyes on the dollar index and the UUP. Everyone else is and it will drive the market especially commodities. There was a 2% rally in the UUP and GLD went down 4%, 76(resistance) &75.11 are the levels to watch on the dollar index tomorrow.

I would like to turn my attention to AAPL and GS. There were a lot of eyes on AAPL’s 50 day MA. She went through it like it wasn’t even there. There was no attempt at a defense of this level. GS did the same thing back on October 28th and the stock has not acted well since. It will change every day bit we are going to need to keep an eye on the 50 day in AAPL.

The other level I think is significant is the 150 day MA in GS (162.32). We are going to have to watch this and see what the reaction is. Right now my guess is we are going to have a bounce off of this level with a modest rally up to the 50 day. However failure at the 150 MA could take us down to the 200 day and that spells trouble for the market. This is well worth paying attention to.

AAPL is trickier because there is no obvious support down to about the 186 level. So we have to see if the 50 day breach is a blip or will the 20 & 50 day act like a lid as they did in GS.

Friday’s market was interesting the SPY, QQQQ,& DIA bounced right off their 20 day MA on huge volume, it reconfirmed my belief that we are not going to see any significant moves down in the market before the New Year.

Metals, materials & energy(GDX,GLD,UYM,XME,SLV,DBC,KOL,DIG) got crushed Friday on the strong dollar but Real Estate, Financials & Small Caps (URE,UYG,IWM,IYR)fared well. Despite the ugly action in the market around 11:30 the market was mixed.

The following ideas may be actionable next week. As we get further into the holiday season I feel like we need to exercise even more caution and only look for the very best setups with volume and relative strength or weakness to support the thesis. In this more volatile environment the following levels could easily be a place to fade the move.

apol 54.5 short
dv 52 short
jbl 12.75 short
aet 30
ccj 32
csx 50.25
esi 85 short
fast 39
life 51.33
nsc 53
pxp 26
trw 24

This is what I wrote yesterday. “We now have a nice clean number to watch on the SPY 112. This level will be on everyone’s radar screen. Last night’s level (111.75) only provided a modest reaction so it will be interesting to see if we get any action at this level.” After 4 ½ hours it became apparent that all we got was a failed breakout. The technical damage continues to be contained but I continue to believe that we need to more cautious going forward.

I read a lot of market commentary and blogs every day. The level of focus on AAPL & GS cannot be ignored. The whole street is watching the 50 day MA in AAPL (195.23) a mere .69 from tonight’s close.

GS is trickier because a lot of people are watching last week’s low 163.22, others the 150 day MA 162.10, with others waiting for the September lows of 157.

The sell off this afternoon was obviously disconcerting to bulls and cannot be ignored. I have actually had some success in support break shorts recently for the first time in weeks. Take a look at ACM&ESI.

With that said, I still believe that unless something really wacky happens we are going to close this market yearend somewhere between the 50 day MA on the SPY 107.84 and the current high 112.18.

Tomorrow @ 8:30Employment Sit could move the markets as Factory Orders at 10:00, but look ahead to next week.

Tuesday 12/15 PPI, Empire St MFG, TIC data & Industrial production.

Wednesday 12/16 CPI, Housing Starts, Petro #’s & FOMC Announcement.

Thursday 12/17 Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, Philly Fed & Nat Gas.
Friday Quad Witch.

And to make things easier GDP, Existing Home sales, Personal Income, New Home Sales, durable goods & Jobless Claims are due on the shortened holiday week.

I think this afternoons selloff put the fear of God into bulls and breakout buyers so I would almost treat any breakout level as an opportunity for a resistance sell.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow:
aet 30
amsc 35
flr 42 short
gs 163/162.1
aapl 195.23
apol 54.5 short
dv 52.4 short
ffiv 50
flr 42 short
jbl short
jec 34.6 short
life 51.33

oii 53.5 short
omi 38.4 short
pcu 36.5

We now have a nice clean number to watch on the SPY 112. This level will be on everyone’s radar screen. Last night’s level (111.75) only provided a modest reaction so it will be interesting to see if we get any action at this level. Commodities, real estate, gold and ag’s were the hot sectors today with the oil and energy patch lagging behind.

Away from gold and the dollar the other market story that is receiving a lot of attention is the action in AAPL & GS.

GS has been underperforming the market for some time and is closing in on its 150 day MA, now 161.86. Volume was lighter today so it we may have a chance at a support buy on this number if we get there tomorrow.

AAPL is closing in on its 50 day MA (now 195) on heavy volume, 25.5 mill today vs 18.1 ave. My guess is that we will have some kind of messy bounce around this level. But if it goes through on heavy volume like GS did back on 10/28 things could get interesting.

With that doom out of the way I saw some good action today in small caps (IWM), transports (IYT) on decent volume and real estate (IYR) and semis (SMH) on lighter volume.

You would like to see greater breadth and leadership from important stocks like AAPL & GS at these highs but I still think we can hold it together at least until the end of the calendar year.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but again I would caution everyone to be watch for relative strength/weakness,good volume and keep reasonble stops.

a 29.71
aet 30
amsc 35
ctsh 45.75
dgx 59
esi 87 short
gs 161.86
life 51.33
omi 38.4 short
pcu 36.5
sbux 22.1
sid
tsco 49.33
uym 33.12
x 46.05

There are a couple of levels that I will be watching closely over the next few days that I consider important.

1. SPY 111.75 & QQQQ 44.66: This will be breakout out of the recent range and a new high for 2009. If things continue as they have, very little will happen and we will just muddle higher. I will be watching to see if anything interesting happens.

2. AAPL 194.77 (valid only tomorrow :) The 50 day MA should provide support for AAPL. If we bounce off it hard and rally, new highs are probably in sight. If we go crashing through it on heavy volume things could get interesting.

3. GS 161.60 (valid only tomorrow) 161.60 is the 150 day MA for GS. Reaction here will also be critical. (hat tip to CW)FYI GS traded almost 13.5 million shares today; average volume is closer to 9.9. This was a huge pick up in volume in a down stock on a nice up day in the market.

4. Dollar index 75.13 (20 day MA above) 74.17 (52 week low). The dollar has been driving this market; I think it pays to pay attention.

All things considered it was a pretty good trading day today. We had a nice trend in place stocks respected alert spots and the volume was decent. I am less optimistic for tomorrow. Again please treat all alerts as subject and look for relative strength/weakness and good volume. If we enter a range bound market going into the end of the year these alert levels can also be looked as a place to fade the move.

acl 150
acm short
aet 30
asia 26.46
eqix 100.2
hrs 45.41
hsp 48.25
ipi 31.67
nsc 52.85
prgo 41