What is going to be the thing that is going to turn this market around?

A strong GDP report or good earnings and a product announcement from AAPL

How about loose monetary policy from a Fed announcement; what about a call for “tax breaks” from the President in his State of the Union speech?

Bernanke getting reappointed?

We got all that and more last week and this market still has no bid to it. I’m not sure how much more “good news” we can handle.

The SPY was down 1.12% but it felt a lot uglier than that, at the end of the day I was amazed to see that we were down only 53 Dow points. AAPL broke the 108 level around 11:00 am and the market just couldn’t catch a bid after that. I don’t see any real level on AAPL to watch right now other than Fridays low (190.25) but I will continue to monitor him as a market tell.

All last week I kept reading and hearing how deeply oversold we were and that these were not the levels to sell breaks of support. I think AAPL may have proved otherwise.

With that said lower highs and lower lows in 7 out of the 8 last sessions so a little bit of a breather tomorrow would not be unexpected. I would welcome it because I think will set up some nice short spots for later in the week.

My strategy for tomorrow will be much the same as it has been recently. Look for important moving averages and see how the stock/etf acts when it gets there. I usually let a few pass to see if we get a bounce or if we are crashing right through them. When I play the bounce I wait for the level to be breached and buy going back up through the number. That way you are not catching the falling knife and you have a defined stop. And I don’t buy the pullback, second time through the number I am out and deciding if I want to get short.

The following levels are some of the things I will be watching; too see if we are going to get some kind of bounce or if this selloff is going to continue.

GLD flirted with the 105 level on Friday (105.27 was the low) if you are long gold you really want this level to hold, the next clear support I see is 101.90 the 150 day MA and then 100.

IWM 60 held Friday, 59.97 was the low, and we need this level to hold. Next time around it probably won’t hold up and the next support level I see is around 58.58 the 150 day MA.

The 20 day MA looks like it wants to roll below the 50 day on the transports (IYT) we need the $70 level to hold, the next support is 150 day MA 68.72.

KOL is coming into the 150 day MA (31.31) and could be worth a bounce play there.

Same with MOO 40.17 (150 day MA)

OIH 114.53 (150 day MA)

QQQQ 41.89 (150 day MA)

SLV 200 day MA 15.47

SMH 200 day MA 24.19

SPY 150 day MA 105.18

USO is trading below the 200 day MA (36.53) it tried to break through it on Friday morning but failed. This good for gas price but probably bad for the global growth story.

Basic materials UYM had a really poor bounce off of the 150 day MA next stop is the 200 day MA 24.91

XLE 200 day MA 53.03

XLF 200 day 13.55

If this sell off continues my feeling is we are headed for DJIA 9700ish right around the November lows.

If you have read this blog for a while you know that I think there are important “physiological” stocks and levels. I f they act good or bad hold or break then the market has a much better chance of following along. The Mac Daddy right now, no pun intended, is AAPL. He rallies the market does he rolls so do the indexs. It won’t last forever but right now he is in charge. The 10 point AAPL in AAPL yesterday afternoon spared us the selloff we had today. Coincidentally AAPL went down 9 points today and the market had a pretty good selloff. If you are actively trading keep him on your screens at all times, I do. With that said the levels in AAPL are 203.33 (the 50 day) and 197 (a break of last Fridays low).


What saved the market from getting really ugly today, in my opinion, oddly was GS. I don’t know if it was because Obama didn’t come out with Blankfeins’ head on a pike last night or he didn’t announce the arrest of everyone at 85 Broad St; but GS actually outperformed today on better than average volume and broke a down trend line stretching all the way back to October 14th. GS is also an important physiological name and needs to be closely monitored.

In the macro sense I am still concerned that we are headed for more weakness and the 150 day MA in the SPY (105.07). SPY 108, AAPL 197 and XLF 14 need to hold, or we will likely head lower.

The $ dollar index is now trading solidly above the 200 day MA closing at 79.12 and appears to be headed to the 81.25/.50 level a resistance area from last June

105 represented an important support level in the GLD and it snapped back from it nicely today, I suspect that the next time around it won’t fare so well and the next important support level is 100.

I continue to try and buy stocks and etf’s as they dip down through and then back up through important MA’. On the flip side I am out and probably short if they breakdown through them again. It is a tough environment right now so be nimble and don’t press.

I will be watching:

AAPL 203.33/ 197

SPY 108

XLF 14

GLD 105

$Index 81.25/78.34

It was typical Fed day choppy and aggravating before the announcement with some fireworks after. The SPY chopped round the 109 level all day and after the announcement actually tested a level going all the way back to Thanksgiving 108.29. The AAPL $499 price tag for the tablet came out right around the same time as the Fed announcement and helped keep the Nasdaq from breaking and probably helped the whole market from taking another leg down.


There is still plenty of news to affect the market this week including The State of The Union, durable goods, jobless claims and GDP as well as plenty of earnings so do don’t press until the dust clears.

I continue to be very selective and look to play stocks off of important moving averages. Buying at the first touch for a quick bounce and shorting them if they fail. I know it is a bit of a broken record but the charts are pretty messy right now.

There are a few levels that I consider to be important and will be watching.

QQQQ 44

XLF 13.99

SPY 108.29

When the SPY broke down after the announcement today the XLF and QQQQ did not confirm the move down and that was a signal that we probably were going to rally.

Keep an eye on these levels for confirmation.

I got the feeling that if the market stayed open any longer or if the FOMC announcement, State of The Union etc weren’t on the horizon things could have gotten pretty ugly today.


AAPL opened positive proceeded to trade up almost 10 points from the opening before rolling over and coming back into the opening range. GS & JPM both violated Friday’s lows and closed more or less on the lows of the day. I actually expected things to get a little more ugly considering those two stocks violated such important levels.

Yesterday I said that the only level that matters right now is SPY 109. It survived the initial test this morning and closed hovering tight above it at 109.31. This only reinforces the importance of this level in my mind.

DIA, IWM, MDY, QQQQ & SPY all have more or less the same daily chart. They started to roll over early last week had two really ugly red bars last Thursday & Friday consolidated with an inside bar yesterday and threatened that Friday low today. I feel that it is really important those lows hold. A test of those levels made early tomorrow will probably be bought ahead of the Fed announcement but a second test especially after the announcement with some volume behind it could be trouble. I am not going to stand in there and buy em on any test of these levels, but watch out for a bounce the first time around in case you are looking to get short.

I expect that tomorrow will be like most Fed day quiet and choppy before the announcement with the potential for some fireworks after. I will be trading very selectively if at all in the morning and early afternoon looking for levels to be established. I had some success today shorting resistance at moving averages and I suspect that will be a theme going forward. The stock has broken down through the MA tries to retake it fails and then rolls on that failed momentum and hopefully a market selloff.

Take it easy tomorrow before the announcement watch to see if we the index’s are holding and then see if it is safe to buy dips to important support levels or if you should be getting short.

A really quiet and lackluster day in the markets that was probably good and certainly not unexpected given all of the earnings and external news this week. Let’s just hope that this is not what passes for a bounce.


AAPL reported this afternoon and the numbers looked pretty good. While I was watching the stock had a 10 point swing in a matter of minutes. We will see what tomorrow brings. In the short term I would watch the 20 day MA above (209.68) and Fridays low below (197.16).

As for the SPY’s I think the only level that matters right now is 109. That would get us through Fridays low and through the 109.02 level stretching back to the end of November.

The 200 day MA (78.45) is keeping a lid on the dollar index for now so we are going to have to keep monitoring to see if it can poke through and what the effects on the market are. If things remain as they have that would be lower.

Again my approach to the markets tomorrow will be a wait and see. How is the market going to digest AAPL, TXN & AMGN? I think the Friday lows are every trading platform and people want to see if they hold when tested. If so buy dips to important support zones and moving averages and if they don’t batten down the hatches.

Take it easy for the next day or so there are a lot of things going on, let’s put them behind us.

It was pretty ugly Friday the SPY was down 2.18% on extremely heavy volume. Gold miners and fixed income outperformed while financials, semis, real estate and basic materials got hit especially hard. Fear has returned to the market, the VXX is trading above its 20 day MA and it has broken a down trend stretching back to last April.


The spots I was watching AAPL 203 and SPY 110 held in the morning and provided a modest opportunity to but some dips down on moving averages but once AAPL gave it up around 2:30 it was time to get out and get short.

Most of the etf’s I look at are in the same situation, below the 20 & 50 day MA but well above the 150 & 200 day MA’s. The notable exceptions are the financials, XLF closed right on the 150 day MA and crude the USO closed right in its 200 day MA.

Back on January 6th I wrote about TLT for the 1st time. I made the observation that back in June the TLT broke 89 on the downside and snapped right back but the SPY went down for the rest of the month. It was about a 10% correction from top to bottom 96.11 to 87.

TLT broke 89 on January 8th the day before the SPY put in it’s high 115.13: I know we ticked at 115.14 on 1/14, but its close enough. A correction of similar magnitude now, would get us down around 104.20 which as it turns out roughly coincides with the 150 day MA on the SPY 104.56. I think that may be where we are headed.

There are e tremendous amount of earnings coming out this week including AAPL, AMGN, TXN, JNJ, X, VZ, BA, CAT, QCOM, T, AMZN, and MSFT. Also don’t forget the FOMC announcement Wednesday at 2:15 and GDP on Friday morning.

My plan for tomorrow is going to be similar to Friday, watch how we open and see how stocks react when they get to important moving averages. If more names are bouncing than not I will try some support buys but if you see stock after stock breaking down through these moving averages then move to the sidelines are look for those that haven’t broken down yet and try them short through those MA’s. Again I know that’s vague but there is a lot of news and external events this week plus we are oversold in the short term.

It was ugly today but not a full scale disatrophy it just felt so bad because things have been so good. I’m not going to go into Obama’s bank plan to save the world, but let’s just say it didn’t help.


THE spy was down a little over 2% today materials, energy, real estate & financials were hit especially hard. On the other hand regional banks and fixed income outperformed nicely. The regional bank index (kre) is looking interesting here and really has a shot to break out through the 25 level.

The QQQQ, RSP, IWM, MDY are still above 50 day MA so there still is some strength out there away from the commodities and big caps.

Needless to say more caution is going to be needed going forward because a shiver was sent through the market this week. The question is was this just a pull back/breather during earnings and ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday or are we taking a leg lower. Some new important levels have emerged to give us a sense of where we are headed. As I write this the dollar index is weak and is trading around today’s lows 78.13.

I will be watching:

Dollar Index 78.61/77.57 (200/20 day MA)

SPY 113.36/110 (20 day MA 113.36 previous resistance new support 110.)

AAPL 209.76/203.34 (209.76 20 day MA 203.34 50 day MA)

GS bounced off the 200 day today in the midst of the earnings call and Obama saving the world but there is too much going on in him right now to be useful. I will keep an eye on today’s low 156.77.

My plan for tomorrow is to see how we open, watch how the commodity names react around 50 day MA’s that have not been violated yet and then proceed. If they start giving it up I will be looking to get short and if they hold I will be looking to buy those levels. I know that’s vague but this is as dicey as it has been in quite a while. I am also going to be looking to make long and short sales at previously broken MA’s above.

The dollar index was strong today and is now well within striking distance of the 200 day MA (78.64). I have got to believe that this is going to get a lot of attention not only from traders but from the talking heads as well. It’s probably a sale their on the first try.


Yesterday I wrote “the iwm, mdy, qqqq, rsp & spy look like they want to break out and take another leg up.” They all held onto their 20 day MA’s today but were definitely showing so weakness. AAPL once again told the tale of the market. Right out the gate he tried to put in new all time highs (215.60) but didn’t have what it took and rolled down toward the20 day. Not enough to breakout but buy the dip around the moving average, the trend continues.

GS reports tomorrow before the open and should help set the tone for the markets and let us see if this trend continues. A few of the key levels to watch in the market are the following.

AAPL 215.60/209

SPY 115.15/113

QQQQ 46.64/44.79

GS 178/159 I know this is a huge range but he’s is capable of testing one of those levels tomorrow. 179 is the recent highs and 159 is the 200 day MA.

The following idea maybe actionable tomorrow so again be extra cautious because there are a number a significant earnings and economic reports out. As always look for good volume, relative strength/weakness and use reasonable stops.

amgn 58

intu 32

lstr 40

ntes 36   short

sbux 24

apa 109

nwbi 11.5

amsc 39.43  short

ir long no clear #

pvtb long no clear #

rimm 63   short

rmd long no clear #

A very nice rally in the markets today, there was some real strength on decent volume and the iwm, mdy, qqqq, rsp & spy look like they want to break out and take another leg up. Healthcare (XLV) broke out on huge volume today because of the potential Massachusetts Senate victory by the Republican Scott Brown. But the rest of the market will likely be driven by all of the corporate earnings and economic reports that will be coming out over the next week.


To illustrate the point BAC, BK, COH, MS, USB, GS, KEY, PNC, LUV, TSM, AXP, BNI, COF & GOOG all report before Friday morning along with a Housing Starts and a PPI report tomorrow morning. So I am reluctant to look to far ahead right now.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but be very selective. I have been noting that some stocks are having a tough time breaking out and that the levels are acting more as targets than breakout points. Keep this in mind as you trade and as always look for good volume, relative strength/weakness and use reasonable stops.

abfs 27

amgn 58

cmp 70

ctxs 44

dvn 70ish

intu 32

lh 77

lstr 40

mbt 42.5

sbux 24

tho 32

spy 115.15

This market is still extremely bullish. The market started off positive this morning but quickly started to give up the gains and it looked as if we were going to take out yesterday’s lows around 10:30 this morning. It was around that time that stocks and etf’s too numerous to mention here bounced off of 20 & 50 day MA’s as well as support zone created by prior breakouts. All things considered it was a strong tape and once again shorting was darn near impossible. The day can be summed up in the AAPL chart. It took out yesterday’s lows around 10:00 and looked like it was headed down to the 50 day MA at 201.48 but stopped at 204.10 rallied and closed at the highs of the day.


Real estate (URE) Financials (UYG) silver (SLV) and Gold (GLD, GDX) outperformed while the VIX index (VXX), Bonds (TLT) & Crude (USO) underperformed.

The market seemed to say that it was safe to go back in the water today, but don’t forget that we have retails sales & jobless claims tomorrow pre open plus earnings from INTC & JPM on the horizon.

I will be watching the TLT 89 level again to see if the market has any reaction to it and the lows from today and yesterday to see if dips are still being bought.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but as always look for volume, relative strength/weakness and use reasonable stops.

axp 42.5/40.25

pnc 58

wynn 69/70

bbt 28

cli 36

ge 17

luv 11.8

swks 15.25

tex 24

The following are short selections be careful with them because short have been extremely difficult, but if the market turns south these may be actionable

gfa 30

lnce (no clean #)

(lnce is thin so use reduced size)

AAPL finally broke the 208 level today and it was the first day in quite a while that it felt safe to be short. With that said this market is still amazing resilient and selling breaks of support is still a very tough game. The only way to really have taken advantage of the weakness was to sell strength and failed breakouts, and that is generally not my style.


The market may only be taking a breather here because the technical damage was contained. AAPL is still above the 20 day M.A., GS is still above its 150 day M.A. and GOOG sold off but held its 50 day M.A. Important ETF’s such as IWM, IYT, MDY, QQQQ, RSP & SPY are also still above their 20 day MA. These are just a few examples of some high profile stocks and ETF’s I will be watching as market tells.

I have been watching the VIX index etf recently and it put in its first green bar in 7 sessions today on massive volume. So it looks like we may be in for some more volatility ahead.

I only have a few ideas for tomorrow because I want to see if today was a one day wonder, or if we have more weakness ahead.

These ideas are all longs so don’t chase look for good volume, relative strength and use reasonable stops.

amx 50

axp 42.5

pru 55

Earnings kicked off tonight with AA, and at least to this point the market does not seem to like it. I saw one report that AA was down over 5% in the aftermarket. Is this the beginning of the long awaited pullback, we’ll see.


I wrote about TLT 89 and AAPL 208 last week as potential market tells and I still think they are important. TLT broke 89 Friday. It Fridays low today but closed below 89 and AAPL flirted with 208 today getting as low as 208.45.

I will continue to watch these two levels and see how the market reacts especially to AAPL 208. If we go crashing through the 208 level on heavy volume things could get a little interesting out there. However if AAPL gets down to 208 on light volume and bounces or chops around the number we are probably back in buy the dips mode.

The dollar index is back below the 20 & 150 day MA and that has helped put a bid back in GDX & GLD, which are both back above their 20 & 50 day MA’s.

The market has a lot of earnings to digest coming up as well as retail sales Thursday and the CPI and Industrial Production on Friday. So be patient and don’t chase anything.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow, again look for good volume relative strength and keep reasonable stops.

amx 50

cli 36

drq 59

fls 109

lstr 40

mhk 50

trw 26

It was a choppy session on lower than average volume. Homebuilders, financials, real estate lead the way with the B.R.I.C. etf's and some of the commodities trailing.

TLT tested the 89 level twice today and snapped back nicely each time. It was good to see that the level was respected and reinforces in my mind that this is a significant level. There was even a headline out from the government around 3pm that warned banks to guard against the risk of raising interest rates and TLT still couldn’t break the 89 level.

I will continue to watch the 89 level on TLT and 208 on AAPLas market tells. If these can hold then we are probably due for another leg up. If they fail then we are going to have to be more cautious going forward.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but the market feels extended here and I wouldn't chase them. Be sure to look for good volume, relative strength and use reasonable stops.

axp 42.25

cat 60

ge 16.5

pcu 36.5

The SPY traded in a very tight .56 range today on lower than average volume. Not much from a day that hosted the ADP employment report, ISM non-mfg index, petroleum numbers and the FOMC minutes. Granted the Employment Situation number is out Friday morning but the indexes were pretty sleepy.


Under the hood weakness in tech was offset by strength in commodities. Materials (UYM), Metals (XME), Gold Miners (GDX) and Oil Services (OIH, DIG) outperformed nicely.

Weakness in the dollar continues to help these names and most of the commodity ETF’s have either broken out of the 2009 highs or a very close to doing so.

I don’t pretend to be a fixed income guy; I know that bonds exist and that the government can’t print enough of them, but I do watch the government bond etf’s everyday. TLT is the ETF for the 20+ year Treasury bond. “The investment seeks results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index.” TLT closed today at 89.11 down 1.42% on better than average volume. If it were a stock I would say that it looks like a clear short through 89 on decent volume. But it’s not a stock it is a government bond etf, and it can do funky things. And there are a bunch of bond auctions tomorrow. The reason I mention this is because the last time TLT was at this level and broke was the week of 6/12/09. TLT broke 89 and the SPY went down for the rest of the month. If you look at a weekly chart of the SPY you can’t miss it. The month of June is about the only red on the screen from March until now. Could be something could be nothing, but I will be watching it.

One last thing, in the last 5 sessions there have been massive bars of volume in the VIX etf (VXX), is somebody covering a short placing a big bet, not sure.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but I wouldn’t chase anything at these levels. I keep looking for shorts but I can’t find them and that makes me suspicious. As always look for good volume relative strength and keep reasonable stops.

adsk 26

axp 42

cat 60

driv 28

The dollar held it together and so did the market. I felt it was a deceptively strong market. The index’s closed flat but there was some real strength in the commodity and major financial space once again. Lead by GS BAC, JPM, MS, WFC and even C have started to trade higher on better volume. With the exception of C they all closed above the 50 day MA. The only exception was the regional bank index (KRE) which was the weakest ETF on my platform.


After the strength we have seen in the index’s I am actually routing for some sideways consolidation action so we can get some good set ups in the next few days.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but I am not expecting much. Look for volume and relative strength, watch out for choppiness.

adsk 26

amgn 58

crk 44

joyg 57

met 37.25

ntes 42.5

pru 53

rs 46

It was a strong day today with the markets shaking off Thursday’s weakness. A weak dollar helped the commodity sectors outperform. Materials and energy lead the way in the commodity space. Real estate was the only real drag on the market, but the IYR managed to stay above its 20 day MA so there was no real technical damage.


The major financials finally came alive and participated in the rally on a pickup in volume. GS, BAC, MS & JPM all broke out of a downtrend and either flirted with or closed above the 50 day MA. All things considered it was a strong day and a nice way to start off the New Year.

Today’s rally came on the back of a weak dollar, but the dollar index is sitting right on the 150 and 20 day MA. They are acting as a bit of a safety net and it may take some work for the index to get down through them.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but the market had a nice move today so don’t chase them too much and as always look for good volume relative strength and a nice smooth entry setup.

acor 26

adsk 26

amgn 58

biib 54

bke 30

driv 28

nmm 15

New week, new year, new decade good luck.


The late sell off on New Year’s Eve has created some buzz out here in the blogosphere that the long awaited pause, pullback, rollover, double dip or whatever has begun. That remains to be seen. All of the major indexes and most of the important sectors are still at or above their 20 & 50 day MA’s.

For the last few months traders have been well served buying pullbacks to major support areas and moving averages. As long as that trend continues the market should continue to have a bid under it and we can continue higher. I am going to take a wait and see approach early in the week to see if this trend continues and as a result I don’t have a lot for tomorrow.

GS broke out of it’s down trend line but couldn’t make it up through the 50 day MA (170.33) If he can take this out with some volume and trend higher it probably bodes well for the market in the short term. Failure here doesn’t necessarily spell doom for the market because the averages closed on the highs of the year without GS. AAPL also has support at 208 and then down around 199.

GLD has support at 105 and then 100 and the GDX has a support level down around 42 and the 200 day MA.

RIMM also has some support at 65 the 20 day MA.

These are just a few of the spots I am watching to see if the market can hold and bounce or if we are going to start to roll over.