The SPY traded in a very tight .56 range today on lower than average volume. Not much from a day that hosted the ADP employment report, ISM non-mfg index, petroleum numbers and the FOMC minutes. Granted the Employment Situation number is out Friday morning but the indexes were pretty sleepy.


Under the hood weakness in tech was offset by strength in commodities. Materials (UYM), Metals (XME), Gold Miners (GDX) and Oil Services (OIH, DIG) outperformed nicely.

Weakness in the dollar continues to help these names and most of the commodity ETF’s have either broken out of the 2009 highs or a very close to doing so.

I don’t pretend to be a fixed income guy; I know that bonds exist and that the government can’t print enough of them, but I do watch the government bond etf’s everyday. TLT is the ETF for the 20+ year Treasury bond. “The investment seeks results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index.” TLT closed today at 89.11 down 1.42% on better than average volume. If it were a stock I would say that it looks like a clear short through 89 on decent volume. But it’s not a stock it is a government bond etf, and it can do funky things. And there are a bunch of bond auctions tomorrow. The reason I mention this is because the last time TLT was at this level and broke was the week of 6/12/09. TLT broke 89 and the SPY went down for the rest of the month. If you look at a weekly chart of the SPY you can’t miss it. The month of June is about the only red on the screen from March until now. Could be something could be nothing, but I will be watching it.

One last thing, in the last 5 sessions there have been massive bars of volume in the VIX etf (VXX), is somebody covering a short placing a big bet, not sure.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but I wouldn’t chase anything at these levels. I keep looking for shorts but I can’t find them and that makes me suspicious. As always look for good volume relative strength and keep reasonable stops.

adsk 26

axp 42

cat 60

driv 28