A 1% rally in the SPY today materials, coal, steel metals and miners lead the way. A number of the commodity etfs have broken their down trend lines and appear to be headed back up to test the 20 & 50 day MA’s. You can make the argument that SPY broke it’s down trend line as well but I definitely would have liked to see better volume.


Fixed income etfs were among the worst performing etfs today due to a bond auction that Rick Santelli rated an F.

The SPY continues to respect the 150 day MA and bounced off it again today almost to the penny. This is a level that is going to have to be monitored until we either break down through it or start to pull away and trade convincingly above the down trend line.

The other spot I am watching closely is the 89 level on TLT. Two poor bond actions in a row is getting us close to the 89 level and I want to see if we break snap back and have equities come for sale like the last two times or if it sparks a rally.

Considering the concerns over sovereign debt out there, I am not sure how a poorly received US treasury auction can be, but I am not panicking just yet. The stock I watch, especially the material and commodity space, feel like they want to break out of their recent slump and move higher. However, I would like to see the SPY hold on 107.50 and for some volume to coming pouring to make me feel better about this move.

I may be crazy but I think the following levels are important on a macro basis and need to be watched.

$ Index 80.68/79.56 break of recent range

GDX 44.80 breaks out above the 50 day MA

VXX 33.05 50 day MA

AAPL 200/190.25

SPY 109/106.23

TLT 91/89