Gold miners finally had their breakout today up over 3% on the day, ag’s (MOO) and financials (UYG) also fared well, solars and fixed income under performed. We had some action and volatility in the morning, a downgrade of Spain around lunchtime but things settled down in the afternoon, and not even the FED announcement moved the market much.


I felt the most significant thing today was that the high of the day in the SPY was 119.68 just .02 shy of the 20 day MA. SPY closed at 119.60, below the 20 day MA for the first time since the middle of February. We have to monitor the 20 day MA now to see if it acts as a lid. The more time we trade below it the higher the likely hood that we roll over and test the 50 day MA currently (116.37).

There are still a number of important sectors trading above the 20 day MA, small caps(IWM) 71.25, real estate (IYR) 51.73, transports (IYT) 82.53, regional banks(KRE) 27.85, mid caps(MDY) 149.00, home builders (XLB) 18.02, industrials (XLI) 32.15, consumer discretionary (XLY) 34.36 and retail (XRT) 43.23. Keep an eye on some of these levels, if they start to give it up the higher the chance the SPY rolls. Another spot you can use as a market tell is GOOG 520. I don’t suggest you trade this one, but it did have a nice bounce off of this important support level today and needs to hold there.

Despite my caution dip buyers still ruled the market today. For example look at the bounces off important levels in GOOG (support), CLX (50 day), RAX(200 day) & DIG (20 day) just to name a few. Be aware of the moving averages in anything you are trading. Until it stops working try buying the first touch on important moving averages. Just remember no catching falling knives. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news. Allow the stock to break the level and buy it on the way back using the low of the candle as a stop. Also only try this the first time around. The second test of the MA is subject to failure.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

life 54 long

au 41.50ish long

bg 56 short

cni 60 short cover before 50 day at 58.49

exxi 19 short

scco 30 short

sina 35 short

agu 57.21 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

anss 44.25 reversal/support buy on 20&50 day MA

ati 51.3 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bbt 31.34 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bmc 38.64 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cli 35.03 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cnq 73.56 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

expd 38.48 reversal/support buy on 20 day MA

idcc 27.73 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ilmn 36.05 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

luv 13.03 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

nwbi 12.01/11.91 reversal/support buy on 20&50 day MA

nyt 9.86 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

sy 42.7 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

teva 56.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

vit 22.18 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

vrsn 26.23 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wll 80.09 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wmt 53.25 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA