Monday, May 31, 2010

All gave some, some gave all. Honor them all. Thanks for your service.









The charts on my watch list are as messy as I have ever seen then. It is so bad that I have no clean alert levels to share with you. I’m sure they are out there but I don’t have them tonight.

With that said I believe that this week could be important for the market. As I go through my watch list I see stock after stock, chart after chart in well defined down trends. I think it can be encapsulated in the weekly SPY chart.









What I want to see is if the SPY can break this down trend line and the 200 day MA on the daily chart (110.69) or if it is going to act as a lid and continue to weigh us down. I know that is not much to go off of, but I trade on high probability setups and I will sit on the sidelines until I find them.

Keep your eye on the 200 day MA (110.69) in the SPY above and 104 below that is now the range.










I am encouraged that AAPL & GS are back above the 20 day MA and that USO is holding above the $32 level. What I am concerned about is that the SPY is going to rally off of this level make a lower high and roll over again, but that is a problem for another day.

I wish I had more for you but I don’t. Enjoy the weather and let the players come back from vacation. We will have some clarity soon.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

The SPY gapped up this morning into resistance and ultimately couldn’t hang on. Trade was sloppy for most of the day but we did get a pretty good sell off in the last 30 minutes. No real technical damage was done however and important stocks and etfs like AAPL & GS are still trading above support levels so I wouldn’t put too much into today’s action.


The recent volatility has left the charts as messy as I have ever seen then and we are going to need some time for clean spots to develop. So I am going to take the next few days off let some of the dust settle and pick things up after the holiday weekend.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but take it easy this is not the environment to press. Also watch out for reversals on the short and long alerts.

bj 40 minor long

ceco 26.24 reversal/support on 200 day

ctxs 41.85 reversal/support on 200 day

wcrx 22 short

wmt 50 short

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

There were a lot of reversal hammers, bounces off of moving averages, failed breakdowns and bounces off of prior resistance today. I a little reluctant to say it because I may be early but it looks like we may be putting in the start of a tradable bottom. Let’s hope the headlines cooperate.


Things were looking pretty ugly this morning and we actually ticked just below the February low on SPY before starting to rally. Vertical moves into important support/resistance can often be a good place to fade the move. You want to the stock to put in a new high/low fail buy/sell on the way back through the previous alert and then use that new high/low as your stop, textbook action today.

Today’s action was constructive but now the charts are really a mess and I have less for tomorrow than I did for today, that is that way it goes. If this bounce is for real then we should know soon enough and some new spots will develop.

Trading the break of up or down trend lines is not really my cup of tea; the levels are too vague for me. But I know that many people do and are successful at it. The most recent selloff and potential bottoming may be giving an opportunity to buy the break of some pretty well defined down trends.

The fertilizer space (AGU, BG, CF, MON, MOS, POT) has these well defined down trends and may give the patient trader a shot to buy the break out.














































The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but I am not expecting much.

ctxs 41.82 reversal/support buy on 200 day Ma
gpn 40 short
grmn 32 short

Monday, May 24, 2010

There was no follow through today from Friday’s bounce and it makes those lows that much more important. In the days to come keep an eye on the SPY 105 level and Fridays low in whatever you are trading. It is import that those levels hold. The range for the SPY now is the 50 day MA (110.53) above and 105 below.

The action today was really quiet and choppy with a bias to the downside. Gold, silver and copper lead with financials, oil services and real estate trailing.

Financials acted pretty poorly today and it helped bring GS down into important support. He really needs to hold the recent lows (135.75) and may end being the canary in the coal for the market. Keep an eye on him, a break down through this level on heavy volume would be bad for him and probably the market a bounce off of this support would help us all.

The Case Shiller home price index is out at 9:00 and consumer confidence at 10:00, but they probably will have little effect on the markets. Unless we get some bad news headline I think the next day or two are probably going to be like today and that would not be all bad. It gives the market a chance to catch its breath and set up some new alerts for us.

As a result I have very little for tomorrow. The following idea may be actionable tomorrow but don’t press

vrtx 34 short

abx 39.18 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA
ccl 34.19 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA
chd 63.34 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA
hrs 43.67 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

infy 53.2 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

nem 50.1 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

netl 25.53 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

veco 36.06 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

vno 70.5 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

gld 113.25 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

Sunday, May 23, 2010

SPY 105 was the level that a lot of people were watching; it was the low of the flash crash and the level where the market bounced in February. We held it Friday morning and SPY 105 is now the line in the sand. My opinion is the market bounced because we were in a deeply oversold condition and that there was a lot of options expiration short covering going on not because of any change in market fundamentals. Never the less 105 is now the bottom end of the range and it needs to hold.


The alert levels I post here for each stock are significant spots on the chart for that stock. (top/bottom of a range, moving average etc.) I may have it tagged as a long or a short but the stock could easily reverse at that level and do the opposite of what I thought might happen. Quick versatile thinking is critical in trading and when you see alert after alert trigger and fail it may be time to take the other side that is what happened Friday. My short alert levels turned out to be great support buy spots. It doesn’t always work that easily but it is important to know your levels and have the flexibility to flip sides if the market warrants it. Here are two examples. I had NITE 14 short and CRK 28 short look what happened.



























Fridays bounce off of the 105 level left a number of stocks with very nice clean support levels. The stocks need time to digest Fridays move but if we go back down and test that support the following levels could be important. Again these stocks need time to consolidate any test of the following levels tomorrow is likely to be sloppy and prone to failure. Keeps these alerts on your platform but they need time.

dow 25

dvn 60

enr 55

flr 44

ges 34

hig 23

jec 40

jpm 37

kmb 60

mon 53

mos 44

mur 50

oii 49

pcln 176

pot 99

prgo 54

pxp 21

rimm 59

teva 29

wlt 65

x 45

These could be support buy spots or short alerts we won’t know until we get there.

I think tomorrow will be probably be quiet and choppy as the market tries to figure what the new range is but who knows what kind of news may come out overnight.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but don’t press and keep an eye on that SPY 105 level.

avp 26 short

bucy 46 short

fslr 105 short

sina 34 short

wfsl 17.5 short

abx 39.15 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

adsk 26.53 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ccl 34.16 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ceco 26.9 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

chd 63.27 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

foe 8.25 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

hrs 43.6 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

infy 53.14 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ir 34.28 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

nem 50.06 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

netl 25.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ups 60.56 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

var 47.27 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

Thursday, May 20, 2010

The SPY gapped down below the 200 day MA this morning tried a small rally in the afternoon but ultimately the bears took over and we closed them right on the lows. Not good action. Real estate, financials and materials took the worst of it.


On the weekend after the flash crash I said to my Dad that I thought the “error” took us where we going, just faster. It looks like I may be right. SPY 105 was the low of the flash crash day and roughly corresponds with the February low; I think that is where we are headed next. The good news is that looks like pretty good support and we have a shot at holding there.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but I urge you to use the utmost caution in these markets. We are in a market driven by macro economics, geopolitics, news and rumors, be careful. No catching knives and don’t get stubborn. On the reversal/support buys make sure to buy on the way back up through the level and use a stop on the low.

aa 11 short

crk 28 short

dlb 60 short

fslr 105 short

nem 52 short

nite 14 short



abx 40 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

adsk 27.4 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

alb 38.41 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

amg 70.46 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

anss 41.44 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ati 44.6 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

cat 57.19 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ccl 34.13 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

cern 79.29 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

foe 8.25 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

gdx 46.06 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

gold 75.18 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hrs 43.52 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hsp 48.93 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hum 42.86 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

infy 53.06 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

luv 11.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

paas 23.41 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

rgld 46.98 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

spg 78.27 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Another interesting day today, the news out of Europe was hanging all over the market this morning and eventually it was enough to take the SPY down to test the 200 day MA (110.41). SPY bounced exactly where it should have I was expecting more of a bounce, but I will take what I can get.


The flash crash really screwed up the picture on the charts and the real support level for SPY may be down around 109.50/110, but this is the market we are living in. Either way I think it is important that today’s lows hold. If we break those I think SPY 108 is the next stop, but it is hard to tell.

On the bright side GS, USO and XLB look like they have put in a reversal hammer on todays, and AAPL bounced on the 50 day MA. I am sure there are more but those are just a few that jumped out at me.

Tomorrow brings us jobless claims (8:30), leading indicators (10:00), philly fed (10:00) and nat gas (10:30) also don’t forget that this week is option expiration. I doubt they will have any effect on the market, but be aware. I have been saying this all week, and been wrong, but I think tomorrow is going to be quiet and choppy so watch those lows and don’t press unless there is a clear trend.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

gva 34 long

acm 26 short

anf 36 short

ann 36 short

ccj 24 short

cog 32 short

dgx 54 short

dow 26 short

fcx 65 short

fslr 105 short

ioc 50.5 short

mee 30 short

xom 62 short

exxi 13.13 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hrs 46.17 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sanm 13.17 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

The SPY went from the top of the range today (115ish) right to the bottom (112ish). Another strong test of the 112 level and I think we can expect SPY to see the 200 day MA (110.36).


Financials, real estate and solars saw the brunt of the selling today, bonds, the dollar and silver outperformed.

The dollar has been looking good compared to the Euro lately. To give you some perspective the dollar index is trading close to where it was in the middle of March 2009 right around the bottom of the market.

In truth I did not expect the kind of sell off we had today. I was expecting a quieter choppy consolidation day. It goes to show that there still sellers a plenty out there.

I still think we are going to get one or two more days of choppy consolidation before we go down and test that 200 day MA, but I am preparing for anything. Either way keep an eye on the SPY 112/111.75 level and the recent lows in anything you are trading. They need to hold. 115.33/115 is the top of the range and it’s probably a sale if we make it back up there tomorrow.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but be nimble out there. If stock after stock is breaking down and the SPY is below 112, stay away from support buys. If stocks don’t break down where they should or break down and snap back then look at those failed breakdowns as a chance for a support buy. Remember no catching knives; buy on the way back up through the level with a stop on the low.

bvn 38 long

asia 21 short

dgx 54 short

do 69.5 short

gg 44 short

mur 54 short

ndaq 19 short

pru 59 short

amg 72.05 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

amln 16.23 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

anf 37.14 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

axp 38.65 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

fdx 81.62 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

vit 19.86 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

Monday, May 17, 2010

It was kind of quiet and choppy this morning until around 11:15 when the market tested Fridays low and the 150 day MA (112.66). For a few minutes there it started to feel pretty ugly, like we going to take another leg down and test the 200 day MA (110.29). But like buying support in a stock we went into that support level vertically on no news and light volume. Buying the SPY on the way back up through the 150 day MA turned out to be a good trade and the market closed the day close to the highs.


Despite the carnage in the commodities (Copper -5.27%, Coal -4.11% & Materials -3.05%) I thought the market acted just the way you would want today. It bounced off of a major moving average on good volume and the last trade was above Fridays close. GS even held the 139 level which I felt was big for him. Dip buyers were out in force this afternoon.

The PPI and housing starts are out at 8:30 tomorrow but I doubt they are going to have any impact on the market.

Today’s selloff and rally have left the charts even messier than before. So the ideas I have tonight are minor, don’t press. I am not expecting much tomorrow, I think thin whippy markets are ahead of us for a few sessions. But keep an eye on today’s lows it will be important for them to hold if they are tested again.

amg 75 short

dgx 54 short

dvn 64 short

fcx 65 short

hgsi 24 short

pcln 196 short

pru 59 short

rax 16 short

schn 48 short

crm 80.75 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

fast 51.18 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

fdx 81.54 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ffiv 65.93 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

life 49.66 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

prgo 58 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

stx 16.89 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

teva 55.74 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

tex 22.06 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

vmw 56.99 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

Sunday, May 16, 2010

After the flash crash the SPY consolidated in a range between 115 and the 50 day MA. We broke that 115 support level early Friday and traded down almost 2%. The SPY held the 150 day MA (112.62) but at this point I think a test of the 200 day MA (110.21) is almost a lock.


Confidence levels in the market are pretty shaky right now you can see it in the selloff in equities and the rise in gold. We got a trillion dollar European bailout to save the markets last week; how are they going to top that?

The charts are pretty messy right now and I don’t have a lot of clean spots that I like. The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow or early this week but take it easy the markets are likely to be thin, whippy and subject to rumors.

chrw 59 short

dgx 54 short

mos 47 short

vrtx 37 short

axp 38.53 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

bbt 32.78 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bcr 80.9 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

bhi 44.07 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

bj 36.72 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

dv 58.16 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

fdx 81.45 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hrs 45.96 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

infy 55.31 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

mmm 81.06 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

stx 16.87 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

teva 55.72 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

urs 45.92/.76 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

Thursday, May 13, 2010

This kind of market action is a big pain in the neck. Choppy back and forth is not my kind of market. Stay tight and trade smart. Right now it is all about SPY 115 and the 50 day MA. Until we get that range resolved we are going sideways.


I wish I had something more profound to say but market psychology has been so damaged by the “flash crash” that no one knows what to do.

Be patient wait for this range to resolve itself and we will have levels to trade.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

In rough seas sailors look for any port in a storm, in this storm your port is established moving averages and previous support or resistance levels. Go through your charts and see how many stocks, etf’s and index’s tested important MA’s and support/resistance levels in the last two days. Know where they are it can only help you.















There is your range SPY 117.43 (50 day MA) by 114.91, not as clean as I would like but given the recent volatility I will take what I can get. This range should get broken soon. Until this range resolves itself be patient.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but, they are minor. In this environment it is best to let one or two alerts pass and see what the reaction is. Are stocks breaking out or failing, breaking down or bouncing back? Either way the following levels could be important.

atw 32 long

esrx 105 long

expd 42 long

mtb 90 long

dgx 54 short

genz 51 short

mon 57 short

qcom 37 short

ma 220 short

Monday, May 10, 2010

Real estate, materials and financials lead the day in the most boring 4% gain in Wall Street history. After today’s action the charts are a mess but we may be forming a range to keep an eye on.


On Wednesday when we broke down through the 50 day MA on the SPY I was looking at 115 as my next support level. It coincides with the breakout out in early March and the market top back in January. The HOD in the SPY was 116.65 and LOD was 114.91 so it looks like we are forming a range in the SPY between 117 & 115. It may take a day or two to resolve this but keep an eye on those levels. Gun to my head I say we go lower because we are still below the 50 day MA(117.35) and GS which sort of telegraphed this move really under performed today, but take it easy until the market sorts itself out. We will get spots to trade.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but they are mostly pretty minor and I am not expecting much until we resolve this range in the SPY so don’t get to aggressive and watch out for choppy action.

bj 38 long

chd 70 long

cmtl 33 long

csx 56 long

dft 24 long

esrx 105 long

slv 18.5 long

gild 38 short

scco 30 short

schn 55 short

har 37.24 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

Sunday, May 9, 2010

First I would like to apologize for not having posted since Tuesday. I was having some technical difficulties. On to Thursday.


Error or not that was one of the craziest things I had ever been a part of, what struck me was the speed at which things happened, in a word, scary. If you are a regular reader of this blog you know that I have been cautious/bearish since the SPY rolled below the 20 day MA back on April 27th. All weekend people have been asking me what do think about Thursday, my response has been that “error” took us where we were going just faster.

Friday morning stocks started to trade lower almost immediately and went vertically right to the 200 day MA on the SPY, bounced and then flat lined. I think that was about the best possible scenario. You shook out the weak hands, bounced on an important MA and now we have levels to shoot against. Make a note of Thursdays and Fridays lows in whatever you are trading it is important that they hold. The S&P stopped right on the 200 day MA almost to the penny this is now the number to watch 1095.74. SPY 109.76 is the 200 day MA 109.41 was the low on Friday.

The charts are a mess now and finding spots to trade is difficult. I have been looking for two things, stocks with untouched moving averages and stocks where Fridays low was a clean number and coincided with some kind of support from Thursday. I have found a number of these situations, but I will be trading very cautiously for the next few sessions to see if Thursday and Fridays lows hold or if we are going to take another leg down.

There are enough alerts on the list tonight that you can afford to let a couple pass and see what the action is like. Does the stock bounce; does it go right through like the level wasn’t even there, does it chop around and do very little? This is what we are going to have to determine. I think the next couple of sessions are going to be pretty choppy so don’t press unless a clear trend is evident. The short alert levels may also be used as a place to buy on a failed break down.

acl 145 short

agu 55 short

apc 57 short

apol 54 short

bg 50 short

bmc 35 short

ccj 23 short

cenx 11 short

cli 32 short

cog 31 short

crk 30 short

crm 76 short

dgx 54 short

esi 99 short

gva 29 short

gww 104 short

hoc 24 short

ibm 120 short

met 40 short

pru 57 short

rax 16 short

rost 51 short

scco 26 short

sina 32 short

spwra 14 short

abx 41.2 reversal/support buy on 20 day MA

alb 37.89 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

amzn 116.24 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

anf 36.68 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ccl 34.73 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ctxs 41.23 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

dv 57.84 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

har 37.15 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hum 42.26 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

netl 25.04 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

swks 13.61 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

teva 55.56 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

urbn 32.56 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

var 48.65 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Strength in the dollar led to weakness in equities today. QQQQ and SPY both went right to their 50 day MA’s today and had a modest bounce. SPY bounced on the 50 day to the penny and QQQQ came within .05, know your levels. AAPL is even flirting with its 20 day MA (254.26). The question is, do today’s lows and MA’s hold giving us something to shoot against or are we headed lower? I think we are headed to 115 in the SPY but I am not sure we are going to make it there tomorrow. Some of these commodity names have been decimated and folks are going to look to come in and scoop some on the cheap against the SPY 50 day. That is why you will see so many support buys on the list tonight.


There was some good action on break of support shorts and shorts through the second or third test of a MA, especially if you got out there early. NYT, FNSR and NETL are good examples of stocks that were testing a moving average a couple of times and broken down in the weakness. Remember the more a level gets tested the weaker it becomes.

There was some important action in commodity etf’s which I would like to highlight.

KOL (coal etf) and JJC (copper) and SLX (steel) are basically untradeable, but are looked on as a good indicator of global growth; all broke down below their 150 day MA today and are closing in on the 200 day MA.

OIH the oil holders etf (think RIG, SLB, HAL, BHI &DO) bounced off of its 200 day MA today (118.97). Considering all of the news in the sector this week I took that as a good sign. Keep an eye on this level, these stocks helped to start this sell off we should know what they are doing.

With so many sectors coming into important support levels I think we are probably going to get a bounce or sideways action tomorrow, as the last couple of days are digested. The best case scenario tomorrow is we open with some weakness or flat action, consolidate for a bit maybe test the lows, once, bounce and then move higher. I still think we are headed to SPY 115, so don’t get greedy. If you see today’s lows and import MA’s holding, then nibble but if stocks are giving up those levels like they aren’t even there, step aside.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow, but use reasonable stops, don’t get greedy and remember the rules for buying support/reversals. No catching falling knives. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news. Allow the stock to break the level snap back and buy it on the way back through the level using the low of the candle as a stop. Also, only try this the first time around. The second test is subject to failure.

cmtl 31 short

kmb 60.5 short

sgy 16 short

xom 66 short

a 34.21 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bhi 45.46 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

bmc 37.68 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

cat 63.19 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cern 82.28 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

clf 50.33 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

cli 33.03 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

clx 61.31 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

cnq 74.15 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ctrp 35.09 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

dow 28.3 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ge 17.96 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ges 42.11 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

hmin 31.32 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ip 24.11 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

jbl 14.24 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

joyg 50.93 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

nem 51.78 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

oxy 84 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

podd 13.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

pru 59.56 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

rost 53.95 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

slab 46/45.40 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

stx 17.73 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sy 41.03 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

syna 28.17 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

tck 33.94 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ufs 67.04 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

unp 73.28 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

vmw 55.2 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wdc 38.17 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wfsl 19.17 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

x 51.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

eem 39.75 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

Monday, May 3, 2010

An inside day today on average volume, the SPY traded around the 20 day MA all day and ultimately closed closer to the highs. Real estate (URE, IYR), financials (UYG, GS) and transports (IYT) lead the way, copper (JJC), steel (SLX) and gold miners (GDX) trailed. Strength in the dollar led to weakness in those commodity names and there were a couple of good support break shorts in AA and SCCO.


Support buys on moving averages are also still working the rally, go through your watch list and see how many bounced off of a MA today, so be aware of those levels. The caveat is that the more a level is tested the weaker it gets so it you are trading something that has tested a moving average a couple of times beware. Another strong down day in the market is going to cause some of these levels to break.

Tonight’s list is a mix of breakout longs, breakdown shorts and reversal/support buys. If you start to see the reversal/support buys work and the market is bouncing then proceed but if you see one after another fail take a pass and maybe look to short a break of the MA.

amgn 57 short

gpn 42.5 short

gymb 49 short

mos 50 short

sgy 16 short

sohu 48 short

csx 58 long

eog 115 long

mmm 90 long

amzn 134 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bmc 38.8 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bpi 23 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bucy 56.75 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

cenx 12.09 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

cli 33 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

joyg 54.22 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

netl 30.25 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

osk 37.9 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

podd 13.47 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sanm 17.4 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

sid 17.32 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

stx 17.71 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

wfsl 19.16 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

wlt 75.74 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

wmt 53.32 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

x 51.44 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

Sunday, May 2, 2010

It was a weak and choppy down day Friday with GS/financials, real estate, and semis taking the worst of it. Gold, bonds and crude fared better but there is some ugliness starting to show up in the charts. Go through your watch list and see how many household/high profile names have broken down below the 20 or 50 day MA. I mention this because every time a level is tested the weaker it becomes, Friday was the 5th test of the 20 day MA on the SPY since the February low and the 2nd close below it. So let’s be cognizant of that and show some caution going forward. Take what the market gives you and trade good set ups.


This Greek bailout may provide some calm to the markets but there is personal income and outlays at 8:30 and ISM MFG index & construction spending at 10:00 that could rock the boat.

The following ideas may be actionable early this week. Look for good volume and smooth set ups in break out/break downs. Don’t catch falling knives on support/reversal buys and use reasonable stops.

uso 42ish long

acm 31 long

amgn 57 short

bax 47 short

ceco 29 short

ges 45.3 short

goog 520 short

gymb 49 short

jpm 42 short

nyt 9.9 short

scco 30 short

sgy 16 short

adp 42.44 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

atpg 16.52 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA