I though Friday’s action was helpful, the market shook off the ugly retail sales numbers, closed near the highs and above the 20 day MA for the first time in over a month. There was strength in the commodities UNG, KOL and JJC all outperformed. Even retailers did ok they were down only .44% after that awful number. The market had a good excuse to sell off with that retail sales number and it didn’t. I thought that was positive.


With that said we are still in inside the triangle on the SPY weekly chart and the 200 day/104 range on the daily chart and until we break out, things are going to be pretty choppy. But I think we have a good shot of breaking out of these ranges and getting better clarity on the direction of the market this week.
The economic calendar is light early in the week but on Wednesday we get housing starts, PPI and industrial production. On Thursday the CPI and jobless claims are out and Friday is quadruple witching so hopefully there is enough in there to break this market out.

Also keep an eye on the dollar index as well. Over the last 4 sessions it has had a small pull back. The DXY closed right on the 20 day MA (86.93). If it has a strong bounce here and moves back towards the highs we will likely see more weakness in equities but more dollar weakness could bring us higher oil and equities, so watch this spot.

I don’t have much for tomorrow because the charts are such a mess, but I am not expecting much out of tomorrow any way so take it easy and let the market sort itself out.

bj 39 long

cmp 78 long

xom 62 long