It was another choppy quiet Fed day today. Not even an abysmal new housing starts number could shake things up. I know that this can get pretty boring but unfortunately that is the way the market is sometimes and we have to take the good with the bad.


Until we break out of this 50 day MA (114ish) to 104 level on the SPY the market is going to remain pretty choppy. The good news is this can’t last forever. While the market is stuck in this range take what you get and don’t over stay your welcome.

There are two charts that I want to focus on tonight.

1. The TLT (iShare Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond). It is the etf for the long bond.

This etf represents the flight to safety trade, look where it was at the height of the financial crisis in the fall of 2009. This chart looks like it wants to break out to me. Through 100 this looks like a breakout buy to me.

2. The next is XHB (SPDR S&P homebuilders). “The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index.” Its holdings include AMN, DHI and LEN among others. Sales of new homes dropped over 30% and fell to a 300,000 unit annual rate, the lowest since they started keeping the records in 1963. Yet the XHB closed up 1.12% on the day and looks like it may have bounced off of major support at 15.

What does the future hold for the market?  A breakout of the flight to safety trade and lower equities or a bounce off of major support after a horrible number? I’m not exactly sure but the durable goods number is out tomorrow and the GDP comes on Friday.

Keep an eye on all the levels mentioned here tonight they are going to be important.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

ads 64.95/63.90 reversal/support buy on 150 or 200 day

ann 17.3 reversal/supprt buy on 200 day MA

vly 13.51 reversal/supprt buy on 200 day MA

wmt 50 short

ipi 21 short

hoc 28 long