The Right Edge

2010-07-25T16:51:00.000-04:00

I’m sorry I haven’t been doing much posting lately, but I have been doing some other work and it has been taking up all of my time. Besides the market has been stuck in a range and the action has been pretty choppy. Until it gets resolved we are stuck with this choppy action.

Last week I wrote that we have a minor range in the SPY of $110/106. Both of those levels were tested and the question is where we go from here. My belief is higher, because we have finally closed above the 50 day MA (108.66) but the SPY has got a lot of work to do to get above the 200 day(111.54) & 150 day(112.40) MA’s.

We are deep in the heart of earnings season and the numbers have been well received for the most part but be aware of when companies are going to report especially if you are going to swing anything. The economic calendar is light tomorrow (new home sales at 10:00) so I don’t think it is really going to be a factor. What I will be watching is the dollar index ($DXY) to see if it continues to hold up above the 150 day MA (82.06) or if it rolls over and begins a test of the 200 day MA (80.50). If that happens we may get a nice bid to the market. The other market tells for me will be USO & SMH. There aren’t any clean levels on them but they both have been consolidating in a range since May and look like they may want to try and break out this week. I will be watching the $36 level on USO and the $29 level on SMH. Hopefully the action in these two ETF’s will give us a sense of where the broader market may be headed. Can they break out of this range or do they fail at the top of the range. Only time will tell.

The following ideas maybe actionable early this week, but watch for failed breakouts and break downs this has been a very choppy range bound market.

acm 25 long

aro 31 long

lstr 42 long

cmi 78 long

cmp 78 long

epd 29 long

fslr 140 long

sid 17 long

uhs 34.02 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wmt 53ish reversal short on 150+200 day MA

cf 85.32 reversal short on 200 day MA

2010-07-19T20:05:00.001-04:00

The inability of the SPY to break out above the $110 level last week and then Friday’s brutal selloff really took some life out of the market. It is very choppy out there right and I have only a hand full of alerts for tomorrow. Sorry they are either there or they are not.

It looks like there is range forming in the SPY $110/$106, it is minor but keep an eye on it.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow, but don’t press.

aapl 231.74 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

deck 42.42 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

prgo 52.63 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

pxd 55.94 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

rost 51.2 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

rah 54 short

2010-07-14T19:41:00.002-04:00

The SPY continues to be very choppy around the 50 day MA, but it is hold the gap up and that is good. Consolidating the move for a couple of days before moving higher is nice healthy action. With that said I saw a couple of things today make me think a gap fill back down to the 20 day MA/108 on the SPY is not out of the question.

1. There was a nice move up in LQD on very heavy volume. (LQD is the ETF for the investment grade bond index and represents an appetite for less risk.)

2. SMH put in an ugly red candle right at resistance and it is going to take some work to get through that.

I wrote earlier in the week about using C & GS as tells for where this market may be headed. C triggered and has basically done nothing while GS is still hanging around the top of the range. It may be easier to watch the $15 level on XLF; it is a clean level and coincides with the 150 day MA. JPM reports Thursday and should help resolve this level.

I only have a few alerts for tonight so don’t press until we get some clarity from the earnings. Also keep in mind that alert levels have been acting like targets and we have been getting weak break outs at some of these spots. So don’t be afraid to try a trade to the alert level or a resistance short on a failed breakout, especially if it is extended away from a base or EMA.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

ato 29 long

cog 34 long

lstr 42 long

mon 55 long

pot 95 long

bcr 80 long

amsc 30 long

2010-07-11T22:29:00.000-04:00

Much has been made of the rally in the markets last week and I am not going to ignore it but you can’t ignore the lack of volume and the fact that earnings season kicks off tomorrow afternoon. It felt like one big short squeeze to me. We are definitely off the lows and out of the real danger zone but the SPY stopped right at the 20 day MA and AAPL is still below the 20 day MA so I wouldn’t exactly consider this a rip roaring bull market just yet.

AA kicks off earnings season tomorrow afternoon and with that in mind I am not expecting much from this market until we get some clarity on the earnings front. As you look to left on almost any daily chart you are going to see a lot of congestion. This market has a great amount of work to do if it want s to go higher.

There are three market tells I want you to watch in the next day or two that may give a sense of where the market is headed. AAPL, GS and C are pretty high profile names and may tell the tale of the market.

AAPL arguably is the leader of the market and should be on your radar screens at all times even if you are not trading it. He is still below the 20 day MA (261.39) and just above the 50 day MA (256.49). Simply put, watch what happens at these levels is it breaking out, being rejected chopping around? This may give you a good sense of what the broader market is going to do.

GS is just below the 50 day MA (139.81) and the top of a range roughly $140. Watch the reaction at that $140 level.

The last one I want you to watch is C. There is not a clean level on this one, but above 4.10 C looks like it wants to break out of a range that goes back to the middle of May.

This obviously isn’t perfect but I think these stocks may give us a sense of where the market is headed and they should be closely monitored until these levels are resolved.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but I am expecting very little tomorrow so don’t push it.

brk.b 80 long

cf 75 long

ipi 23.38 reversal/short sale on 50 day MA

pru 58.18 reversal/short sale on 50 day MA

pxd 63.59 reversal/short sale on 50 day MA

qcom 35.63 reversal/short sale on 50 day MA

scco 31.49 reversal/short sale on 200 day MA

slb 60.41 reversal/short sale on 50 day MA

spg 85.49 reversal/short sale on 50 day MA

swn 39.98 reversal/short sale on 50 day MA

trw 30.45 reversal/short sale on 50 day MA

wlt 71.2 reversal/short sale on 50 day MA

2010-07-08T21:57:00.001-04:00

The rally in the last three has been good and like I said couldn’t have come at a better time. Another failed rally would have been very dispiriting to the bulls. For the sale of my 401k and kids college fund I am happy to see the rally, but I don’t think we are out of the woods yet and I am concerned that if we can’t clear the moving averages and congestion above that in the next couple of weeks we are going to have yet another lower high and a failed breakout. Only time will tell. With that in mind I am going to be looking to short these rallies at MA’s and prior support levels.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but take it easy on a Friday in July.

aci 22.44 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

acm 23.9 reversal/support short on 20 day MA

apol 45.94 reversal/support short on 20 day MA

asia 25.17 reversal/support short on 200 day MA

atw 28.31 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

bbt 28.66 reversal/support short on 20&200 day MA

bmc 36.91 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

ccj 23.54 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

cern 81.75ish reversal/support short on 50&200 day MA

dow 26.58 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

drq 50.82 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

dvn 65.25ish reversal/support short on 20&50 day MA

flr 46.83 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

ge 36.65 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

gs 140.19 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

gww 104.39 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

ir 35.31 reversal/support short on 200 day MA

lstr 41.87 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

mee 32.13 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

met 40.8 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

mfe 32.78 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

mon 52.71 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

oii 50.81 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

oxy 82ish reversal/support short on multiple MA's

slb 60.66 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

sohu 44.07 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

spg 85.59 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

swn 40.04 reversal/support short on 50 day MA

sid 16 long

2010-07-07T20:56:00.000-04:00

We finally got the oversold bounce so many bulls were looking for and it could not have come at a better time. I think another failed rally would have been very damaging to the bull camp. It was a nice broad based rally, I have 271 stocks on my WL 262 of them were up. The only fly in the ointment was the light volume but that has not seemed to matter lately, besides its summer.

The canary in the coal mine for this rally was the weakness in the dollar. I wrote the other day the dollar index was testing support at 84 and when it finally broke down through it this afternoon the market really took off. You can see it here in these two charts.

The charts are still pretty messy so there are no good bullish break out charts yet just some resistance shorts. I think the best case scenario for the bulls would be a day or two of consolidation and then a move higher. That would also set up some nice spots for us as well.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but they are mostly resistance shorts. Let one or two pass, if they are not working then aside and don’t try a resistance short the second time around. Remember on a resistance short you want the stock extended away from any kind of base or the 5 minute EMA with a stop above the reversal candle.

do 67.22 reversal/resistance short on the 50 day MA

eog 105.79 reversal/resistance short on the 20 day MA

fast 52.04 reversal/resistance short on the 20&50 day MA

fcx 66.93 reversal/resistance short on the 50 day MA

ip 24ish reversal/resistance short on the 20&50 day MA

pnra 71.05 reversal/support buy on 200 day ma

prgo 51.7 reversal/support buy on 150 day ma

2010-07-06T20:26:00.000-04:00

My opinion of the market has not changed since yesterday. The bears are still firmly in control of the market. A selloff in the dollar index and a rally in commodities and riskier sectors like the emerging markets were not enough to prevent this afternoon’s selloff. These strong opens that fade throughout the day have got to start becoming disheartening to the bulls.

Today’s high in the SPY 104.37 is only .01 away from the low put in when we established the last range back on 5/25 (SPY$104.38). Prior support has now become resistance. This market is respecting technicals so know your levels.

Until we can breakout and close above SPY $104 or breakdown below Thursday lows (SPY $101ish) things will remain pretty choppy. So don’t press and try to stay cool.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

alb 38.42 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

deck 41.57 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

fast 47.3 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

mcd 64.39 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

netl 25.55 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

pnra 70.97 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

pxd 54.77 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

tii 17.29 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

trw 25.48 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

vrsn 25.03 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wfmi 33.26 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wynn 71.44 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

adp 39 short

bke 31 short

whr 82 short

2010-07-05T16:08:00.000-04:00

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”

Happy Birthday America.

SPY $104 was major support and truthfully I expected more panic to set in when we broke it. But the market is in such an oversold condition that the selloffs have been pretty sloppy. Never the less we have broken through major support, the next support levels that I see are down around SPY $100 and then $95. In short the recent lows, Thursday, need to hold or we are likely headed lower.

The only real contra indicator I have seen is the weakness in the Dollar index. The DXY is back below the 20 & 50 day MA , for the first time since April and is testing support down around $84. In the recent past dollar weakness has meant higher equities.

Last week provided some excellent examples of my style of trading and I would like to share them with you.

On Thursday CSX had a text book breakdown at $48. If you look on the daily chart you will see where CSX tested the $48 level back on May 21st, 25th, June 8th and then again on July 1st. CSX opened Friday up above $49 and proceed to sell off all morning. It based nice above $48 testing it three times before finally breaking through around lunch time. Once breaking down through it never gave you a reason to be stopped out. An argument can be made that there was a better entry up around $48.50 on the second test of that level but either way it was a pain free trade.

The other examples are reversal/support buys on an important moving average. The first example is EOG which had a nice bounce off of the 200 day MA ($96) on Thursday. Note the vertical move into the MA on no news and moderate volume. EOG then puts in a low below $96 ($95.78) providing us with a built in stop, and reverses nicely. If executed properly you would have risked about .25 to make $3. Not a bad risk reward.

The other example was in HMIN on Thursday as well. It had a nice bounce off of the 50 day MA ($37). Again notice the vertical move into the support level on no news and moderate volume. In this case the spot to buy the stock was right on the number (37 was the low of the day) but the bars of volume at the level were your tell that this was the spot to get in. This one was more difficult to catch but if nothing else it goes to show the importance of these levels.

There is going to be a lot of people on vacation this week and we have a light economic calendar so I am not expecting too much action early in the week, but keep an eye on Thursday’s lows. If we start to break down below them things could get interesting.

The following ideas could be actionable early this week.

cmi 59.67 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ctsh 46.96 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

fast 47.22 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

fnsr 12.96 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

netl 25.52 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

pxd 54.66 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sbux 23.43 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

tii 17.28 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

trw 25.44 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

uhs 34.69 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

vrsn 25.02 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wfmi 33.23 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wll 73.12 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wynn 71.41 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

dhr 36 short

esrx 45 short

intu 34 short

ir 33 short

rah 54 short

rax 17 short

shld 62 short

sohu 40 short

iwm 59 short

iyr 46 short

kre 22 short

hsp 58 long

2010-06-29T21:23:00.003-04:00

In recent days I have written here about the how TLT $100 looked like a breakout and a flight to safety. Last night TL closed right at $100 and gapped above it this morning leading to a tremendous selloff in equities. The major indexes were down over 3% and the materials/commodities complex got crushed.

SPY $104 acted as a magnet for the market and the question now is, do we hold here or take another leg down? The rally to resistance (SPY 112/113) on light volume and then the sell off on heavier volume had to be discouraging even to the most bullish of bulls. On a longer term view (SPY weekly chart) you can make the argument that going back to the week of MAY 23rd 2008 we have made 4 consecutive lower highs on the SPY weekly chart and that we are in the process of breaking down through a bearish triangle. In short we really need to hold here.

Unfortunately the choppy and lackluster market we have been experiencing lately has left us very few clean spots to take advantage of. So what I think/hope is going to happen is that we get a good panic gap down which will give us a shot to buy some solid support. The market is oversold and at some major support, not necessarily a bad thing.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow, but remember the rules for buying reversal/support. No catching falling knives. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news. Allow the stock to break the level snap back and buy it on the way back up through the level using the low of the candle as a stop. Also, only try this the first time around. The second test is subject to failure.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but there are enough ideas here to let a few pass and see if we are snapping back or taking another leg down. If stock after stock goes crashing through support like it wasn’t even there then step back. This is an important spot in the market and we may see a dog fight here.

aap 48.32 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

alb 38.32 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

amx 47.63 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

au 41.97 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

chd 62.81 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

clx 61.59 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

cree 58.77 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

de 54.24 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

eog 95.73 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

esrx 45.89 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

intu 33.2 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

rmd 58.76 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sanm 12.85 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

spg 78.23 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

tii 17.23 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

trw 25.32 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wfmi 34.07 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

whr 84.87 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wsm 23.52 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

mur 49 short

2010-06-28T18:33:00.000-04:00

It was a sleepy summer market today with light volume and not much volatility. Utilities, fixed income and consumer staples out performed, with materials, metals & mining and oil drillers underperforming. Unfortunately there was not much to take away from today’s performance that is just the way it is some days.

Last week I wrote about TLT and how it looks like a breakout at the $100 level. $100 was tested again today and in fact TLT closed at that 99.98 this afternoon. I will be monitoring this level closely in the coming days to see if we start to trade above it and perhaps get a selloff in equities or if TLT has a failed breakout and we get a rally in stocks. Only time will tell. The more we test this level the more important it becomes so keep an eye on it. Also don’t forget about SPY 104, at this point it is major support and needs to hold. Short term resistance for SPY is now the 20 day MA (109.14) and then up around the 150 day and 200 day MA’s (112.87 & 112.83) I know that these are wide ranges but the market is a big choppy mess right now. Flash crash not only hurt investor psychology but it made the charts a mess.

I don’t have many new alerts for tomorrow and until we break out of this range in the SPY the market is going to be choppy. We have a shot at shaking things up with some of the employment data coming out later this week so be patient.

Remember to keep all breakout and breakdown alert levels on your platform until they trigger, they do not expire.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

cmg 140.9 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

dhr 37.61 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

luv 11.34 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

mcd 65.94 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

pnra 74.79 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

esi 86 short

2010-06-23T21:16:00.000-04:00

It was another choppy quiet Fed day today. Not even an abysmal new housing starts number could shake things up. I know that this can get pretty boring but unfortunately that is the way the market is sometimes and we have to take the good with the bad.

Until we break out of this 50 day MA (114ish) to 104 level on the SPY the market is going to remain pretty choppy. The good news is this can’t last forever. While the market is stuck in this range take what you get and don’t over stay your welcome.

There are two charts that I want to focus on tonight.

1. The TLT (iShare Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond). It is the etf for the long bond.

This etf represents the flight to safety trade, look where it was at the height of the financial crisis in the fall of 2009. This chart looks like it wants to break out to me. Through 100 this looks like a breakout buy to me.

2. The next is XHB (SPDR S&P homebuilders). “The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index.” Its holdings include AMN, DHI and LEN among others. Sales of new homes dropped over 30% and fell to a 300,000 unit annual rate, the lowest since they started keeping the records in 1963. Yet the XHB closed up 1.12% on the day and looks like it may have bounced off of major support at 15.

What does the future hold for the market? A breakout of the flight to safety trade and lower equities or a bounce off of major support after a horrible number? I’m not exactly sure but the durable goods number is out tomorrow and the GDP comes on Friday.

Keep an eye on all the levels mentioned here tonight they are going to be important.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

ads 64.95/63.90 reversal/support buy on 150 or 200 day

ann 17.3 reversal/supprt buy on 200 day MA

vly 13.51 reversal/supprt buy on 200 day MA

wmt 50 short

ipi 21 short

hoc 28 long

2010-06-22T21:43:00.002-04:00

Tomorrow is Fed day and in full disclosure I am usually gone for the day by 11:30, I may come back in at 2:30 but it is rare. There is too much noise and too many things out of my control for my kind of trading.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

ads 64.92/63.85 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

ann 17.27 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ipi 29 short

wsm 24.51 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

But don’t press it’s fed day and anything or nothing can happen.

2010-06-21T20:25:00.000-04:00

Today’s action had to be disappointing for the bulls. There was a nice gap up the market this morning and good strength in the commodity space but ultimately it wasn’t enough and the market gave it all back closing on the lows. To say that the market is sloppy and lackluster is being charitable. The SPY actually dipped below the 200 day MA (111.29) before snapping back late in the day.

I’m afraid that until we pull away from the 200 day MA on the SPY with some conviction and authority the market is going to be in a bit of a no man’s land. The good news is that we have the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, durable goods & jobless claims on Thursday then we close out the week with the GDP and consumer sentiment on Friday so hopefully something in there can shake this market loose.

In the mean time this choppy action is setting up some nice clean spots for us to watch. Remember that breakout/down alerts do not expire, until they are triggered so keep them on your platform. Also don’t forget that these levels can also be a place to fade the move.

Don’t be a hero in this market if a stock setups with a nice a base and some volume take the trade otherwise preserve your capital and wait.

Some of these spots are a little far away so they may not trigger soon but keep them on your platform anyway.

agu 54 long

cli 34 long

crk 34 long

hoc 28 long

schn 46 long

mos 46 long

rimm 63 long

rkt 56 long

ibm 132 long

2010-06-17T21:45:00.002-04:00

We had a choppy sideways mess today and it isn’t fun but it is part of the healing process.

Some of the commodities fared better today (UNG, GDX, SLV, GLD) but some fared worse (SLX, JJC, SLX, KOL). All things considered the day was a wash and I wouldn’t put too much stock in it. To continue the mixed signals AAPL looks like it wants to go to new highs and GS is hanging on by a thread. Tomorrow is quadruple witch and I know many traders that take most if not the whole day off because it is a big pain in the neck.

The good news is that the SPY tested the 200 day MA bounced and managed to close the day closer to the highs. So the rebound is intact for now. The bad news is that this “recovery” has come on light volume. It is a choppy lackluster market that needs to do some healing.

The breakout/breakdown alerts I post here do not expire and you should keep them on your platform for the future. They may not be the breakout or breakdown I thought but they are important levels. Always be flexible when you are trading and understand that those alerts can be a great place to fade the move and do a reversal trade.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but I don’t expect much.

dd 38 long

de 60 long

gww 108 long

rost 58 long

vit 23 long

2010-06-16T21:44:00.000-04:00

It was kind of a lack luster choppy day on light volume that was not good for the break out trading that I favor. The IBM 130 alert worked for a bit, but nice clean set ups like CLX 65, CSX 54, LVS 27, SBUX 28 VALE 28 and VMC 48 either out right failed or worse teased you by chopping around the number. Such is the life of a trader. Regardless know your levels and respect them even if they don’t return the favor some times.
However there were two nice lessons in this mess today. IBM provided a nice example of a break out long. It had a nice base below the alert (130) and then a good burst of volume up through the level.

And VALE provided us a nice example of a failed breakout. A stock that is extended away from any kind of base going into the alert level on light volume and no real news.

Despite the choppy lackluster action and light volume the SPY is still above the 200 day MA and is most likely headed for a test of the 50 day MA (114.46). The CPI, jobless claims and current account are out before the open but I don’t believe they are going to have any real effect on the open. They are then followed up by leading indicators & the Philly Fed at 10 and the Nat Gas #’s at 10:30. Just be aware.

The levels I put up on this blog are spots I think are significant. Sometimes they are (IBM&VALE) sometimes they are not (CLX, CSX, LVS, SBUX) such is trading. I mention this to reiterate the point that just because I have some thing marked as a break out long or break down short doesn’t mean that it can’t reverse there. Know that these levels could be important and be ready to flip if the market dictates, and always use reasonable stops.

With that said the following ideas could be actionable tomorrow:

crk 34 long

dd 38 long

gymb 46 long

mlm 94 long

mos 46 long

pnra 85 long

vit 23 long

vno 80 long

rimm 63 long

rkt 56 long
I also want to add the following as levels to watch for the future (they are only 1 touch spots right now)

atw 28 long

au 44 long

esrx 54 long

gdx 52 long

paas 26 long

2010-06-15T20:52:00.000-04:00

We had a nice strong rally today, but not so strong as to ruin the list of alert levels I posted yesterday. With a little strength and decent volume tomorrow and/or Thursday we could get some good action from that list.

Solars, oil drillers and semi’s were among the strongest groups today, with fixed income and the dollar index underperforming. The market was well bid all day but picked up steam in the afternoon closing at the highs and above the 200 day MA for the first time in almost a month. It was excellent action for the bulls and probably makes the 50 day MA (114.60) on the SPY the next stop. The only real negative I saw was light volume.

There are a number of break out longs on the list tonight enough to let one or two pass to see if they work. Remember that you are looking for a nice base below the level and then a move through preferably on a burst of volume.

MCD & INFY today were pretty good examples of this.

Also don’t forget that a gap above the level voids the alert, they are subject to higher rates of failure.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

clx 65 long

crk 34 long

csx 54 long

dd 38 long

hog 28 long

ibm 130 long

lvs 27 long

pnra 85 long

rimm 63 long

rkt 56 long

sbux 28 long

vale 28 long

vmc 48 long

aapl 260 long

2010-06-14T18:07:00.002-04:00

The 200 day MA on the SPY was being watched by every trader on the street. So the fact that we failed there today didn’t really surprise me, when a level is so closely watched it can often be sloppy. Also the light volume and downgrade of Greece did not help. The selloff just reconfirmed the importance of that level and set us up to punch through on the next test with good volume.

Today’s rally to the 200 day MA on the SPY and subsequent sell off set up a bunch of nice clean alerts levels for us to watch. These are mostly one touch spots and really need time to consolidate to work effectively but we should monitor them none the less.

The following ideas need some time to consolidate but keep them on your platform. They may be breakout longs or spots for resistance shorts on failed breakouts we’ll find out when we get there.

clx 65

crk 34

csx 54

dd 38

fslr 110

har 34

ibm 130

infy 62

ioc 57

lvs 27

mcd 70

mlm 94

pnra 85

rah 61

rgld 52

spwra 14
The following ideas could be actionable tomorrow:

bj 39 long

intu 37 long

rax 18 long

vit 22 long

uso 35 long

2010-06-13T16:52:00.000-04:00

I though Friday’s action was helpful, the market shook off the ugly retail sales numbers, closed near the highs and above the 20 day MA for the first time in over a month. There was strength in the commodities UNG, KOL and JJC all outperformed. Even retailers did ok they were down only .44% after that awful number. The market had a good excuse to sell off with that retail sales number and it didn’t. I thought that was positive.

With that said we are still in inside the triangle on the SPY weekly chart and the 200 day/104 range on the daily chart and until we break out, things are going to be pretty choppy. But I think we have a good shot of breaking out of these ranges and getting better clarity on the direction of the market this week.
The economic calendar is light early in the week but on Wednesday we get housing starts, PPI and industrial production. On Thursday the CPI and jobless claims are out and Friday is quadruple witching so hopefully there is enough in there to break this market out.

Also keep an eye on the dollar index as well. Over the last 4 sessions it has had a small pull back. The DXY closed right on the 20 day MA (86.93). If it has a strong bounce here and moves back towards the highs we will likely see more weakness in equities but more dollar weakness could bring us higher oil and equities, so watch this spot.

I don’t have much for tomorrow because the charts are such a mess, but I am not expecting much out of tomorrow any way so take it easy and let the market sort itself out.

bj 39 long

cmp 78 long

xom 62 long

2010-06-11T09:27:00.000-04:00

Yesterday’s almost 3% rally in SPY’s was essential to keep the bulls hopes alive but all it did for me was to reconfirm this triangle.

I am actually not going to post any picks today because things are just too choppy and I am not seeing anything new that I feel strongly about. Remember that breakout long and breakdown short alerts do not expire until they are triggered so keep them on your platform. Reversal/support buys or sells on MA’s are good for the day maybe two because the MA’s are constantly changing. So delete those.

The theme of the market yesterday on TV was, can we keep this rally going and string together a couple of positive days? That is an excellent question and I don’t think this morning’s disappointing retails sales number is going to help in that effort.

I cannot stress enough how important the SPY 104 level is becoming. It really needs to hold and so far it is and that is good. In fact if we got down there today it would probably be a decent place to try a reversal/support buy.

I would like to add two other thoughts.

1. The 20 day MA (109.51) on the SPY is coming into play and will something to watch in the next few sessions. Does it act like a lid or can we close above it and start to work higher?

2. The USO closed above the 20 day MA yesterday for the 2nd day in a row. Higher gas prices are backhanded victory I realize but it can be a measure of global demand and growth so let’s see if USO can stay above the 20 day MA (33.48) in today’s weakness.

Take it easy today and don’t press. This range will resolve itself soon enough and we will have decent opportunity.

2010-06-09T21:34:00.000-04:00

Today started out promising for the bulls we had a small gap up, a rally and no headline disasters, but ultimately it wasn’t enough and we closed at the lows. It has to be pretty discouraging to the bulls that they can’t string together two decent days in a row.

Until the SPY resolves this triangle we are in for the choppy action we have been seeing recently.

My belief is that we are going lower, probably SPY 100. However there are so many eyes on this SPY 104 level that it could be pretty choppy when we get there. I just think that the bulls can be disappointed so many times until they decide to give up and look lower. Until this triangle is resolved either up or down take it easy and don’t press.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow. Some of the short alerts are a little far away and may act as support if the market bounces again so be nimble until we get some clarity.

bvn 38 long

dhr 74.16 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

fslr 100 short

ge 15 short

grmn 31 short

ipi 21 short

mfe 31 short

shld 77 short

x 40 short

2010-06-08T20:34:00.001-04:00

Too much will be made of today’s 123 point rally in the DJIA. I thought it was more significant that the SPY came in and tested support twice and finished at the highs of the day. The SPY is still in the 200 day/104 range so not much has changed but today’s rally was encouraging. A .84% one day rally in the SPY does not a bottom make so continue to watch the 104 level.

On the plus side DO & RIG (drillers which have been weighing down the market) look like they may have put in some capitulation volume today. However on the negative side AAPL closed below the 50 day MA, and the 200 day MA in AMZN provided no support but acted like a lid when tested on the up side.

I still think we have a real shot at testing SPY 100 so be nimble and don’t over stay your welcome in any trade. Until we break this range SPY 200 day MA/104 range the pickings will be a little thin.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow, be aware of the petroleum #’s at 10:30 and the beige book at 2:00.

ads 64.26 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

alb 37.64 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

bpi 19.15 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

cree 56.59 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

de 53.12 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

dhr 74.09 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

luv 11.09 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

sanm 12.19 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

x 40 short

bvn 38 long

2010-06-07T21:18:00.000-04:00

Simply put this market is as ugly as can be. Today’s selloff now has every major etf trading below its 200 day MA. The SPY is still above the most recent support level (104) but it looks like it wants to take another leg down.

There are thousands of barrels of crude pouring into the Gulf of Mexico everyday and we are in “summer driving season” yet crude oil cannot catch a bid.

Look at this chart of the USO and consider what it is saying about global demand and growth.

MA’s acted as targets today and provided little if any bounce. Sellers are in charge of this market right now but there doesn’t seem to be panic out there, yet.

The SPY 104 support level is huge. There are a lot of eyes on that level and it needs to hold. A gap down to or below it on the open tomorrow might be defended by the bulls, but I think if we have two more days like today it is going to give way.

AAPL was saved by its 50 day MA (250.65) today but that is likely to give way with another test.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but like I said MA’s provided little if any bounce today so if possible let a couple pass to see what kind of action you get. If you are seeing bounces then give it a shot. If the stocks are crashing through those MA’s like they weren’t even there then stay away or look to get short.

ba 59.62 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

bbt 28.56 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

chd 63.97 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ctrp 34.24 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ctxs 42.15 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

de 53.06 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

dhr 74.01 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

expd 35.48 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

lh 73.06 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

luv 11.08 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

mcd 65.23 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

mtb 72.34 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

sanm 12.14 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

vno 68.86 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

whr 86.56 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

gpn 40 short

pcln 176 short

esrx 105 long or possible resistance short on failed breakout

2010-06-06T18:41:00.000-04:00

Fear about Europe, a rumor of a huge trading loss at one of the big European banks and a putrid jobs report all conspired to give us a pretty ugly day on Friday. All of the major indexes were down over 3%. The NASDAQ composite closed below its 200 day MA and the small cap ETF IWM closed at the lows of the day right above its 200 day MA (63.25)

Natural Gas (UNG), government bonds (TLT) and gold (PHYS, GLD) were among the strongest groups, with real estate (URE), basic materials (UYM) and financials (UYM) among the hardest hit.

As ugly as Friday was it really only got us back to the middle of the range on the SPY. The 200 day MA (110.87) above and 104 below is the range. My belief is that we are going lower down around 100 on the SPY but until we break this range things are going to be pretty choppy. The 200 day MA on the SPY daily chart is acting like a lid for the market and until we can close above it in a convincing manner the bears are in control. Know where the 200 day MA is every day and monitor it.

The other trend that is still intact is the well defined down trend on the SPY weekly chart. We continue to ride that trend line down and that isn’t going to end until this market can rally above the 200 day MA.

I think it also important to point out that the dollar index DXY is back to levels it has not seen since the height of the financial crisis; in fact we are a little over $1 away from the levels the dollar was at when the market put in its lows in March of 2009.

The economic calendar is pretty light this week so news headlines and rumors could hold extra sway in the markets. Be nimble.

The alert levels I post here for each stock are significant spots on the chart for that stock. (top/bottom of a range, moving average etc.) I may have it tagged as a long or a short but the stock could easily reverse at that level and do the opposite of what I thought might happen. Quick versatile thinking is critical in trading and when you see alert after alert trigger and fail it may be time to take the other side. Short alert levels can turn out to be great support buy spots. It doesn’t always work that easily but it is important to know your levels and have the flexibility to flip sides if the market warrants it.

Also remember the rules for buying support/reversals. No catching falling knives. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news. Allow the stock to break the level snap back and buy it on the way back up through the level using the low of the candle as a stop. Also, only try this the first time around. The second test is subject to failure. With that said the following ideas may be actionable tomorrow.

adsk 26.76 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

bbt 28.55 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

bke 31.72 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ceco 26.36 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

chd 63.91 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ctxs 42.12 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

expd 35.91 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

hrs 44.25 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

mcd 65.18 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

mtb 72.26 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

nsc 51.9 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

dv 56 short

fdo 38 short

jec 40 short

2010-06-02T21:23:00.000-04:00

It was a solid day in the market with the SPY up 2.57%. It is no coincidence that we had such a nice rally and the energy patch led the way. The drillers having been laying on this market like an oil slick, haha. DIG, OIH, UNG & KOL all strongly outperformed today. It’s still pretty ugly in the energy patch most of the names are still in well defined down trends but today’s action may be the beginning of a bottom. For example APC, ATPG, ATW, BHI, DO, DRQ, MUR, OII, PXP, SLB, SWN, OIH, XLE all look like they may have put in a reversal hammer today.

I don’t want to get too far out on a limb because the SPY is still trapped inside the 200 day MA/$104 range but we now have 4 higher lows on the SPY and it looks like we may be able to punch through. You need to keep an eye on SPY 110.77(200 day MA), everyone else is.

The charts are still pretty messy and good clean spots are hard to come by. I am hoping that getting the economic calendar overhang off the markets in the next two days gives us some good trading, but watch those news headlines.

I know there aren’t many but the following ideas may be actionable tomorrow and Friday please be aware of the economic reports coming out. As we get clarity on the direction of the market more levels will develop.

fdo 39.16 reversal/support buy on 150 day ma

hog 27.86 reversal/support buy on 50 day Ma

ilmn 43 long this is a minor spot

CNI 59 but this also minor because it is below the 50 day MA

2010-06-01T20:26:00.003-04:00

The market has no life to it right now the 200 day MA on the SPY is acting as lid and until we can trade above there rallies are being sold. The oil spill and geo politics are hanging all over this market. Until we get some clarity on these issues I am afraid that we are going to have the choppy trading we have been seeing lately.

It feels like more of a buyers strike than forced or aggressive selling, but until we can get above the 200 day MA it appears the bears are in control.

I still consider AAPL & GS to be important stocks for the psychology of the market; continue to watch them closely as market tells. USO falls into this category as well. Considering how much focus there is on the oil spill USO may give us an early sense of direction. But the SPY range is still the 200 day MA above and 104 below watch those levels.

I have a few ideas for tomorrow but the charts are still a mess and these are minor. I expect more choppy and sloppy trading, especially ahead of the economic data coming out on Thursday and Friday.

bbt 28.51 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ceco 26.3 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ctxs 41.97 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

fdo 39.09 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

hog 27.84 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

hrs 44.04 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

mcd 65.01 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

mhk 49.9 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

mtb 75.12 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ufs 53.25 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wab 40.79 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

mfe 31 short

2010-05-31T22:30:00.000-04:00

All gave some, some gave all. Honor them all. Thanks for your service.

The charts on my watch list are as messy as I have ever seen then. It is so bad that I have no clean alert levels to share with you. I’m sure they are out there but I don’t have them tonight.

With that said I believe that this week could be important for the market. As I go through my watch list I see stock after stock, chart after chart in well defined down trends. I think it can be encapsulated in the weekly SPY chart.

What I want to see is if the SPY can break this down trend line and the 200 day MA on the daily chart (110.69) or if it is going to act as a lid and continue to weigh us down. I know that is not much to go off of, but I trade on high probability setups and I will sit on the sidelines until I find them.

Keep your eye on the 200 day MA (110.69) in the SPY above and 104 below that is now the range.

I am encouraged that AAPL & GS are back above the 20 day MA and that USO is holding above the $32 level. What I am concerned about is that the SPY is going to rally off of this level make a lower high and roll over again, but that is a problem for another day.

I wish I had more for you but I don’t. Enjoy the weather and let the players come back from vacation. We will have some clarity soon.

2010-05-26T22:21:00.003-04:00

The SPY gapped up this morning into resistance and ultimately couldn’t hang on. Trade was sloppy for most of the day but we did get a pretty good sell off in the last 30 minutes. No real technical damage was done however and important stocks and etfs like AAPL & GS are still trading above support levels so I wouldn’t put too much into today’s action.

The recent volatility has left the charts as messy as I have ever seen then and we are going to need some time for clean spots to develop. So I am going to take the next few days off let some of the dust settle and pick things up after the holiday weekend.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but take it easy this is not the environment to press. Also watch out for reversals on the short and long alerts.

bj 40 minor long

ceco 26.24 reversal/support on 200 day

ctxs 41.85 reversal/support on 200 day

wcrx 22 short

wmt 50 short

2010-05-25T22:01:00.000-04:00

There were a lot of reversal hammers, bounces off of moving averages, failed breakdowns and bounces off of prior resistance today. I a little reluctant to say it because I may be early but it looks like we may be putting in the start of a tradable bottom. Let’s hope the headlines cooperate.

Things were looking pretty ugly this morning and we actually ticked just below the February low on SPY before starting to rally. Vertical moves into important support/resistance can often be a good place to fade the move. You want to the stock to put in a new high/low fail buy/sell on the way back through the previous alert and then use that new high/low as your stop, textbook action today.

Today’s action was constructive but now the charts are really a mess and I have less for tomorrow than I did for today, that is that way it goes. If this bounce is for real then we should know soon enough and some new spots will develop.

Trading the break of up or down trend lines is not really my cup of tea; the levels are too vague for me. But I know that many people do and are successful at it. The most recent selloff and potential bottoming may be giving an opportunity to buy the break of some pretty well defined down trends.

The fertilizer space (AGU, BG, CF, MON, MOS, POT) has these well defined down trends and may give the patient trader a shot to buy the break out.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but I am not expecting much.

ctxs 41.82 reversal/support buy on 200 day Ma
gpn 40 short
grmn 32 short

2010-05-24T21:16:00.000-04:00

There was no follow through today from Friday’s bounce and it makes those lows that much more important. In the days to come keep an eye on the SPY 105 level and Fridays low in whatever you are trading. It is import that those levels hold. The range for the SPY now is the 50 day MA (110.53) above and 105 below.

The action today was really quiet and choppy with a bias to the downside. Gold, silver and copper lead with financials, oil services and real estate trailing.

Financials acted pretty poorly today and it helped bring GS down into important support. He really needs to hold the recent lows (135.75) and may end being the canary in the coal for the market. Keep an eye on him, a break down through this level on heavy volume would be bad for him and probably the market a bounce off of this support would help us all.

The Case Shiller home price index is out at 9:00 and consumer confidence at 10:00, but they probably will have little effect on the markets. Unless we get some bad news headline I think the next day or two are probably going to be like today and that would not be all bad. It gives the market a chance to catch its breath and set up some new alerts for us.

As a result I have very little for tomorrow. The following idea may be actionable tomorrow but don’t press

vrtx 34 short

abx 39.18 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA
ccl 34.19 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA
chd 63.34 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA
hrs 43.67 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

infy 53.2 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

nem 50.1 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

netl 25.53 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

veco 36.06 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

vno 70.5 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

gld 113.25 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

2010-05-23T21:16:00.000-04:00

SPY 105 was the level that a lot of people were watching; it was the low of the flash crash and the level where the market bounced in February. We held it Friday morning and SPY 105 is now the line in the sand. My opinion is the market bounced because we were in a deeply oversold condition and that there was a lot of options expiration short covering going on not because of any change in market fundamentals. Never the less 105 is now the bottom end of the range and it needs to hold.

The alert levels I post here for each stock are significant spots on the chart for that stock. (top/bottom of a range, moving average etc.) I may have it tagged as a long or a short but the stock could easily reverse at that level and do the opposite of what I thought might happen. Quick versatile thinking is critical in trading and when you see alert after alert trigger and fail it may be time to take the other side that is what happened Friday. My short alert levels turned out to be great support buy spots. It doesn’t always work that easily but it is important to know your levels and have the flexibility to flip sides if the market warrants it. Here are two examples. I had NITE 14 short and CRK 28 short look what happened.

Fridays bounce off of the 105 level left a number of stocks with very nice clean support levels. The stocks need time to digest Fridays move but if we go back down and test that support the following levels could be important. Again these stocks need time to consolidate any test of the following levels tomorrow is likely to be sloppy and prone to failure. Keeps these alerts on your platform but they need time.

dow 25

dvn 60

enr 55

flr 44

ges 34

hig 23

jec 40

jpm 37

kmb 60

mon 53

mos 44

mur 50

oii 49

pcln 176

pot 99

prgo 54

pxp 21

rimm 59

teva 29

wlt 65

x 45

These could be support buy spots or short alerts we won’t know until we get there.

I think tomorrow will be probably be quiet and choppy as the market tries to figure what the new range is but who knows what kind of news may come out overnight.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but don’t press and keep an eye on that SPY 105 level.

avp 26 short

bucy 46 short

fslr 105 short

sina 34 short

wfsl 17.5 short

abx 39.15 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

adsk 26.53 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ccl 34.16 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ceco 26.9 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

chd 63.27 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

foe 8.25 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

hrs 43.6 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

infy 53.14 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ir 34.28 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

nem 50.06 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

netl 25.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ups 60.56 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

var 47.27 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

2010-05-20T18:18:00.002-04:00

The SPY gapped down below the 200 day MA this morning tried a small rally in the afternoon but ultimately the bears took over and we closed them right on the lows. Not good action. Real estate, financials and materials took the worst of it.

On the weekend after the flash crash I said to my Dad that I thought the “error” took us where we going, just faster. It looks like I may be right. SPY 105 was the low of the flash crash day and roughly corresponds with the February low; I think that is where we are headed next. The good news is that looks like pretty good support and we have a shot at holding there.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but I urge you to use the utmost caution in these markets. We are in a market driven by macro economics, geopolitics, news and rumors, be careful. No catching knives and don’t get stubborn. On the reversal/support buys make sure to buy on the way back up through the level and use a stop on the low.

aa 11 short

crk 28 short

dlb 60 short

fslr 105 short

nem 52 short

nite 14 short

abx 40 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

adsk 27.4 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

alb 38.41 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

amg 70.46 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

anss 41.44 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ati 44.6 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

cat 57.19 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ccl 34.13 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

cern 79.29 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

foe 8.25 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

gdx 46.06 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

gold 75.18 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hrs 43.52 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hsp 48.93 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hum 42.86 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

infy 53.06 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

luv 11.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

paas 23.41 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

rgld 46.98 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

spg 78.27 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-05-19T21:52:00.002-04:00

Another interesting day today, the news out of Europe was hanging all over the market this morning and eventually it was enough to take the SPY down to test the 200 day MA (110.41). SPY bounced exactly where it should have I was expecting more of a bounce, but I will take what I can get.

The flash crash really screwed up the picture on the charts and the real support level for SPY may be down around 109.50/110, but this is the market we are living in. Either way I think it is important that today’s lows hold. If we break those I think SPY 108 is the next stop, but it is hard to tell.

On the bright side GS, USO and XLB look like they have put in a reversal hammer on todays, and AAPL bounced on the 50 day MA. I am sure there are more but those are just a few that jumped out at me.

Tomorrow brings us jobless claims (8:30), leading indicators (10:00), philly fed (10:00) and nat gas (10:30) also don’t forget that this week is option expiration. I doubt they will have any effect on the market, but be aware. I have been saying this all week, and been wrong, but I think tomorrow is going to be quiet and choppy so watch those lows and don’t press unless there is a clear trend.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

gva 34 long

acm 26 short

anf 36 short

ann 36 short

ccj 24 short

cog 32 short

dgx 54 short

dow 26 short

fcx 65 short

fslr 105 short

ioc 50.5 short

mee 30 short

xom 62 short

exxi 13.13 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hrs 46.17 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sanm 13.17 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-05-18T21:02:00.002-04:00

The SPY went from the top of the range today (115ish) right to the bottom (112ish). Another strong test of the 112 level and I think we can expect SPY to see the 200 day MA (110.36).

Financials, real estate and solars saw the brunt of the selling today, bonds, the dollar and silver outperformed.

The dollar has been looking good compared to the Euro lately. To give you some perspective the dollar index is trading close to where it was in the middle of March 2009 right around the bottom of the market.

In truth I did not expect the kind of sell off we had today. I was expecting a quieter choppy consolidation day. It goes to show that there still sellers a plenty out there.

I still think we are going to get one or two more days of choppy consolidation before we go down and test that 200 day MA, but I am preparing for anything. Either way keep an eye on the SPY 112/111.75 level and the recent lows in anything you are trading. They need to hold. 115.33/115 is the top of the range and it’s probably a sale if we make it back up there tomorrow.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but be nimble out there. If stock after stock is breaking down and the SPY is below 112, stay away from support buys. If stocks don’t break down where they should or break down and snap back then look at those failed breakdowns as a chance for a support buy. Remember no catching knives; buy on the way back up through the level with a stop on the low.

bvn 38 long

asia 21 short

dgx 54 short

do 69.5 short

gg 44 short

mur 54 short

ndaq 19 short

pru 59 short

amg 72.05 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

amln 16.23 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

anf 37.14 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

axp 38.65 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

fdx 81.62 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

vit 19.86 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-05-17T20:39:00.002-04:00

It was kind of quiet and choppy this morning until around 11:15 when the market tested Fridays low and the 150 day MA (112.66). For a few minutes there it started to feel pretty ugly, like we going to take another leg down and test the 200 day MA (110.29). But like buying support in a stock we went into that support level vertically on no news and light volume. Buying the SPY on the way back up through the 150 day MA turned out to be a good trade and the market closed the day close to the highs.

Despite the carnage in the commodities (Copper -5.27%, Coal -4.11% & Materials -3.05%) I thought the market acted just the way you would want today. It bounced off of a major moving average on good volume and the last trade was above Fridays close. GS even held the 139 level which I felt was big for him. Dip buyers were out in force this afternoon.

The PPI and housing starts are out at 8:30 tomorrow but I doubt they are going to have any impact on the market.

Today’s selloff and rally have left the charts even messier than before. So the ideas I have tonight are minor, don’t press. I am not expecting much tomorrow, I think thin whippy markets are ahead of us for a few sessions. But keep an eye on today’s lows it will be important for them to hold if they are tested again.

amg 75 short

dgx 54 short

dvn 64 short

fcx 65 short

hgsi 24 short

pcln 196 short

pru 59 short

rax 16 short

schn 48 short

crm 80.75 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

fast 51.18 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

fdx 81.54 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ffiv 65.93 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

life 49.66 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

prgo 58 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

stx 16.89 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

teva 55.74 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

tex 22.06 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

vmw 56.99 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

2010-05-16T22:33:00.002-04:00

After the flash crash the SPY consolidated in a range between 115 and the 50 day MA. We broke that 115 support level early Friday and traded down almost 2%. The SPY held the 150 day MA (112.62) but at this point I think a test of the 200 day MA (110.21) is almost a lock.

Confidence levels in the market are pretty shaky right now you can see it in the selloff in equities and the rise in gold. We got a trillion dollar European bailout to save the markets last week; how are they going to top that?

The charts are pretty messy right now and I don’t have a lot of clean spots that I like. The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow or early this week but take it easy the markets are likely to be thin, whippy and subject to rumors.

chrw 59 short

dgx 54 short

mos 47 short

vrtx 37 short

axp 38.53 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

bbt 32.78 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bcr 80.9 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

bhi 44.07 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

bj 36.72 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

dv 58.16 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

fdx 81.45 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hrs 45.96 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

infy 55.31 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

mmm 81.06 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

stx 16.87 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

teva 55.72 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

urs 45.92/.76 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

2010-05-13T22:25:00.002-04:00

This kind of market action is a big pain in the neck. Choppy back and forth is not my kind of market. Stay tight and trade smart. Right now it is all about SPY 115 and the 50 day MA. Until we get that range resolved we are going sideways.

I wish I had something more profound to say but market psychology has been so damaged by the “flash crash” that no one knows what to do.

Be patient wait for this range to resolve itself and we will have levels to trade.

2010-05-11T22:38:00.000-04:00

In rough seas sailors look for any port in a storm, in this storm your port is established moving averages and previous support or resistance levels. Go through your charts and see how many stocks, etf’s and index’s tested important MA’s and support/resistance levels in the last two days. Know where they are it can only help you.

There is your range SPY 117.43 (50 day MA) by 114.91, not as clean as I would like but given the recent volatility I will take what I can get. This range should get broken soon. Until this range resolves itself be patient.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but, they are minor. In this environment it is best to let one or two alerts pass and see what the reaction is. Are stocks breaking out or failing, breaking down or bouncing back? Either way the following levels could be important.

atw 32 long

esrx 105 long

expd 42 long

mtb 90 long

dgx 54 short

genz 51 short

mon 57 short

qcom 37 short

ma 220 short

2010-05-10T21:13:00.002-04:00

Real estate, materials and financials lead the day in the most boring 4% gain in Wall Street history. After today’s action the charts are a mess but we may be forming a range to keep an eye on.

On Wednesday when we broke down through the 50 day MA on the SPY I was looking at 115 as my next support level. It coincides with the breakout out in early March and the market top back in January. The HOD in the SPY was 116.65 and LOD was 114.91 so it looks like we are forming a range in the SPY between 117 & 115. It may take a day or two to resolve this but keep an eye on those levels. Gun to my head I say we go lower because we are still below the 50 day MA(117.35) and GS which sort of telegraphed this move really under performed today, but take it easy until the market sorts itself out. We will get spots to trade.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but they are mostly pretty minor and I am not expecting much until we resolve this range in the SPY so don’t get to aggressive and watch out for choppy action.

bj 38 long

chd 70 long

cmtl 33 long

csx 56 long

dft 24 long

esrx 105 long

slv 18.5 long

gild 38 short

scco 30 short

schn 55 short

har 37.24 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

2010-05-09T22:47:00.002-04:00

First I would like to apologize for not having posted since Tuesday. I was having some technical difficulties. On to Thursday.

Error or not that was one of the craziest things I had ever been a part of, what struck me was the speed at which things happened, in a word, scary. If you are a regular reader of this blog you know that I have been cautious/bearish since the SPY rolled below the 20 day MA back on April 27th. All weekend people have been asking me what do think about Thursday, my response has been that “error” took us where we were going just faster.

Friday morning stocks started to trade lower almost immediately and went vertically right to the 200 day MA on the SPY, bounced and then flat lined. I think that was about the best possible scenario. You shook out the weak hands, bounced on an important MA and now we have levels to shoot against. Make a note of Thursdays and Fridays lows in whatever you are trading it is important that they hold. The S&P stopped right on the 200 day MA almost to the penny this is now the number to watch 1095.74. SPY 109.76 is the 200 day MA 109.41 was the low on Friday.

The charts are a mess now and finding spots to trade is difficult. I have been looking for two things, stocks with untouched moving averages and stocks where Fridays low was a clean number and coincided with some kind of support from Thursday. I have found a number of these situations, but I will be trading very cautiously for the next few sessions to see if Thursday and Fridays lows hold or if we are going to take another leg down.

There are enough alerts on the list tonight that you can afford to let a couple pass and see what the action is like. Does the stock bounce; does it go right through like the level wasn’t even there, does it chop around and do very little? This is what we are going to have to determine. I think the next couple of sessions are going to be pretty choppy so don’t press unless a clear trend is evident. The short alert levels may also be used as a place to buy on a failed break down.

acl 145 short

agu 55 short

apc 57 short

apol 54 short

bg 50 short

bmc 35 short

ccj 23 short

cenx 11 short

cli 32 short

cog 31 short

crk 30 short

crm 76 short

dgx 54 short

esi 99 short

gva 29 short

gww 104 short

hoc 24 short

ibm 120 short

met 40 short

pru 57 short

rax 16 short

rost 51 short

scco 26 short

sina 32 short

spwra 14 short

abx 41.2 reversal/support buy on 20 day MA

alb 37.89 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

amzn 116.24 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

anf 36.68 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ccl 34.73 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ctxs 41.23 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

dv 57.84 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

har 37.15 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hum 42.26 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

netl 25.04 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

swks 13.61 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

teva 55.56 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

urbn 32.56 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

var 48.65 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-05-04T21:15:00.002-04:00

Strength in the dollar led to weakness in equities today. QQQQ and SPY both went right to their 50 day MA’s today and had a modest bounce. SPY bounced on the 50 day to the penny and QQQQ came within .05, know your levels. AAPL is even flirting with its 20 day MA (254.26). The question is, do today’s lows and MA’s hold giving us something to shoot against or are we headed lower? I think we are headed to 115 in the SPY but I am not sure we are going to make it there tomorrow. Some of these commodity names have been decimated and folks are going to look to come in and scoop some on the cheap against the SPY 50 day. That is why you will see so many support buys on the list tonight.

There was some good action on break of support shorts and shorts through the second or third test of a MA, especially if you got out there early. NYT, FNSR and NETL are good examples of stocks that were testing a moving average a couple of times and broken down in the weakness. Remember the more a level gets tested the weaker it becomes.

There was some important action in commodity etf’s which I would like to highlight.

KOL (coal etf) and JJC (copper) and SLX (steel) are basically untradeable, but are looked on as a good indicator of global growth; all broke down below their 150 day MA today and are closing in on the 200 day MA.

OIH the oil holders etf (think RIG, SLB, HAL, BHI &DO) bounced off of its 200 day MA today (118.97). Considering all of the news in the sector this week I took that as a good sign. Keep an eye on this level, these stocks helped to start this sell off we should know what they are doing.

With so many sectors coming into important support levels I think we are probably going to get a bounce or sideways action tomorrow, as the last couple of days are digested. The best case scenario tomorrow is we open with some weakness or flat action, consolidate for a bit maybe test the lows, once, bounce and then move higher. I still think we are headed to SPY 115, so don’t get greedy. If you see today’s lows and import MA’s holding, then nibble but if stocks are giving up those levels like they aren’t even there, step aside.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow, but use reasonable stops, don’t get greedy and remember the rules for buying support/reversals. No catching falling knives. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news. Allow the stock to break the level snap back and buy it on the way back through the level using the low of the candle as a stop. Also, only try this the first time around. The second test is subject to failure.

cmtl 31 short

kmb 60.5 short

sgy 16 short

xom 66 short

a 34.21 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bhi 45.46 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

bmc 37.68 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

cat 63.19 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cern 82.28 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

clf 50.33 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

cli 33.03 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

clx 61.31 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

cnq 74.15 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ctrp 35.09 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

dow 28.3 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ge 17.96 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ges 42.11 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

hmin 31.32 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ip 24.11 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

jbl 14.24 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

joyg 50.93 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

nem 51.78 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

oxy 84 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

podd 13.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

pru 59.56 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

rost 53.95 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

slab 46/45.40 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

stx 17.73 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sy 41.03 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

syna 28.17 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

tck 33.94 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ufs 67.04 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

unp 73.28 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

vmw 55.2 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wdc 38.17 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wfsl 19.17 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

x 51.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

eem 39.75 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

2010-05-03T21:24:00.002-04:00

An inside day today on average volume, the SPY traded around the 20 day MA all day and ultimately closed closer to the highs. Real estate (URE, IYR), financials (UYG, GS) and transports (IYT) lead the way, copper (JJC), steel (SLX) and gold miners (GDX) trailed. Strength in the dollar led to weakness in those commodity names and there were a couple of good support break shorts in AA and SCCO.

Support buys on moving averages are also still working the rally, go through your watch list and see how many bounced off of a MA today, so be aware of those levels. The caveat is that the more a level is tested the weaker it gets so it you are trading something that has tested a moving average a couple of times beware. Another strong down day in the market is going to cause some of these levels to break.

Tonight’s list is a mix of breakout longs, breakdown shorts and reversal/support buys. If you start to see the reversal/support buys work and the market is bouncing then proceed but if you see one after another fail take a pass and maybe look to short a break of the MA.

amgn 57 short

gpn 42.5 short

gymb 49 short

mos 50 short

sgy 16 short

sohu 48 short

csx 58 long

eog 115 long

mmm 90 long

amzn 134 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bmc 38.8 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bpi 23 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bucy 56.75 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

cenx 12.09 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

cli 33 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

joyg 54.22 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

netl 30.25 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

osk 37.9 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

podd 13.47 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sanm 17.4 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

sid 17.32 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

stx 17.71 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

wfsl 19.16 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

wlt 75.74 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

wmt 53.32 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

x 51.44 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-05-02T22:07:00.002-04:00

It was a weak and choppy down day Friday with GS/financials, real estate, and semis taking the worst of it. Gold, bonds and crude fared better but there is some ugliness starting to show up in the charts. Go through your watch list and see how many household/high profile names have broken down below the 20 or 50 day MA. I mention this because every time a level is tested the weaker it becomes, Friday was the 5th test of the 20 day MA on the SPY since the February low and the 2nd close below it. So let’s be cognizant of that and show some caution going forward. Take what the market gives you and trade good set ups.

This Greek bailout may provide some calm to the markets but there is personal income and outlays at 8:30 and ISM MFG index & construction spending at 10:00 that could rock the boat.

The following ideas may be actionable early this week. Look for good volume and smooth set ups in break out/break downs. Don’t catch falling knives on support/reversal buys and use reasonable stops.

uso 42ish long

acm 31 long

amgn 57 short

bax 47 short

ceco 29 short

ges 45.3 short

goog 520 short

gymb 49 short

jpm 42 short

nyt 9.9 short

scco 30 short

sgy 16 short

adp 42.44 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

atpg 16.52 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

2010-04-30T08:45:00.000-04:00

I just noticed an error from last nights post.

"jblu 13.05 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA" should be

luv 13.05 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

Sorry for any confusion.

km

2010-04-29T21:47:00.000-04:00

It was kind of an odd day today, the good news is the SPY gapped up above the 20 day MA, stayed there and traded decent volume; the bad news is that some important names in the commodity space got crushed today. Some of this was related to the oil spill in the gulf, but I was surprised that the market held up as well as it did.

For example take a look at CAM, WLT, RIG, DO, HAL&PCX. It didn’t really affect the market today so I don’t know why it would tomorrow, but keep an eye on the energy sector. Also take note of how little important MA’s mean in a high volume news driven environment. No catching knives!!!!!!

I am sure a lot of money was made and lost in these names today but it’s really not my game. When I trade I want important defined levels for my entry a good sense of where my stop should be and profit targets. The only one of these names that I traded successfully today was WLT. All credit goes to the guys at High Chart Patterns. If you are not familiar with them become so, they have be invaluable to my trading. At around 10:00 they tweeted “HCPG http://chart.ly/aezpdt $WLT - WLT through 88, whenever that may be, is now a great short spot. Add alert. “And boy was it ever, all gain and no pain, thanks guys. The moral of the story is stick to important levels on the charts, don’t buy or sell something because it “looks good here”. 88 was below the 50 day MA and the break of a 3 day range.

The GDP &employment cost index are at 8:30 tomorrow, Chicago PMI at 9:45 and consumer sentiment is at 9:55 so ease into the day tomorrow. The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but watch out for low volume choppiness especially in the afternoon.

netl 35 long

slb 74 long

x 56 short

anss 44.39 reversal/support buy on 20&50 day MA

gymb 50.05 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

jblu 13.05 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

nyt 9.89 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

podd 13.42 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

pxp 30.22 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sgy 16.45 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

slab 48.37 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

stx 17.66 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sy 42.75 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

v 90.81 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

vit 22.3 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wmt 53.27 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-04-28T22:07:00.000-04:00

Gold miners finally had their breakout today up over 3% on the day, ag’s (MOO) and financials (UYG) also fared well, solars and fixed income under performed. We had some action and volatility in the morning, a downgrade of Spain around lunchtime but things settled down in the afternoon, and not even the FED announcement moved the market much.

I felt the most significant thing today was that the high of the day in the SPY was 119.68 just .02 shy of the 20 day MA. SPY closed at 119.60, below the 20 day MA for the first time since the middle of February. We have to monitor the 20 day MA now to see if it acts as a lid. The more time we trade below it the higher the likely hood that we roll over and test the 50 day MA currently (116.37).

There are still a number of important sectors trading above the 20 day MA, small caps(IWM) 71.25, real estate (IYR) 51.73, transports (IYT) 82.53, regional banks(KRE) 27.85, mid caps(MDY) 149.00, home builders (XLB) 18.02, industrials (XLI) 32.15, consumer discretionary (XLY) 34.36 and retail (XRT) 43.23. Keep an eye on some of these levels, if they start to give it up the higher the chance the SPY rolls. Another spot you can use as a market tell is GOOG 520. I don’t suggest you trade this one, but it did have a nice bounce off of this important support level today and needs to hold there.

Despite my caution dip buyers still ruled the market today. For example look at the bounces off important levels in GOOG (support), CLX (50 day), RAX(200 day) & DIG (20 day) just to name a few. Be aware of the moving averages in anything you are trading. Until it stops working try buying the first touch on important moving averages. Just remember no catching falling knives. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news. Allow the stock to break the level and buy it on the way back using the low of the candle as a stop. Also only try this the first time around. The second test of the MA is subject to failure.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

life 54 long

au 41.50ish long

bg 56 short

cni 60 short cover before 50 day at 58.49

exxi 19 short

scco 30 short

sina 35 short

agu 57.21 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

anss 44.25 reversal/support buy on 20&50 day MA

ati 51.3 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bbt 31.34 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bmc 38.64 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cli 35.03 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cnq 73.56 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

expd 38.48 reversal/support buy on 20 day MA

idcc 27.73 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ilmn 36.05 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

luv 13.03 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

nwbi 12.01/11.91 reversal/support buy on 20&50 day MA

nyt 9.86 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

sy 42.7 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

teva 56.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

vit 22.18 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

vrsn 26.23 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wll 80.09 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wmt 53.25 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-04-27T22:24:00.002-04:00

Obviously an ugly day in the markets, I have been expecting something like this to happen but in truth not today, not the day before a Fed meeting. Basic materials (UYM) real estate (URE) and financials (UYG) saw the worst of the selling, with gold (GLD,) fixed income (TLT, AGG, SHY) fairing best.

This selloff today was hard on large caps and we saw weak bounces off of important moving averages in names like AA, JPM, while other names closed right on the MA and made those support/resistance buys tough (BAC&AET for example). I am not expecting real ugliness tomorrow ahead of the announcement but be well aware of the MA’s and today’s lows in anything you are trading. Homebuilders (XHB), energy (XLE), industrials (XLI), technology (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY) and retail (XRT) all closed above the 20 day MA and you can make the argument that this is bullish or that there is more work to do on the down side in important sectors. I think there is more work to do. We could get a bounce in the SPY back up to the 20 day MA (119.60) but they are going to have to do some real work to keep SPY above that level and I that we are headed for a test of the 50 day MA (116.17).

This selloff comes at a tough time because tomorrow is Fed day which is usually marked by low volume and increased volatility after the announcement. I often take the day off because it can be such a pain but I will be in tomorrow. There should be some residual action in the morning as people square up positions, but don’t press too hard before the announcement; there should be plenty of opportunity later this week to take advantage of this sell off if it is for real.

The following ideas could be actionable tomorrow but be careful of light volumes and whippy action. Use reasonable stops and when buying pullbacks don’t catch a falling knife. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news. Allow the stock to break the level and buy it on the way back using the low of the candle as a stop. Also only try this the first time around. The second test of the MA is subject to failure.

a 37 long

abx 42 long

aem 62ish long

nem 54 long

amgn 57 short

bg 56 short

hum 43 short cover before the 200 day MA 41.59

agu 57.09 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

amg 78.21 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

apc 66.35 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

bbt 31.23 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

clf 65.14 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

clx 63.22/63 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cni 58.32/58 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cnq 73.43 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ilmn 36.05/36.02 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

jbl 15.38 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

luv 13.02 reversal/support buy on 50 MA

nwbi 12 reversal/support buy on 20&50 and previous resistance day MA

rax 18.07 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wmt 53.23 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-04-26T20:40:00.002-04:00

It was a pretty lackluster day all things considered, but there was some real weakness in financials especially the regional banks (KRE) which have had a really nice run. Consumer discretionary, retail and real estate all out performed but they were all up less than 1%.

The thing that stood out to me today was the weakness in GS and GOOG. As you know there are certain stocks that I consider to be psychologically important for the market, GS and GOOG fall into that category. GS broke down through the 155 level which was the low from the first two days after the news of the SEC charges broke. It was an important level; the next support lies down around 150, the February lows. GOOG had a weak bounce off of its 200 day MA and then closed below it for the 1st time in a year. This further evidence that some of the momentum is coming out of the market.

Case Shiller HPI is out at 9:00 and consumer confidence at 10:00 but I am not expecting them to have any measurable effect on the market. I think before the FOMC announcement you are going to have pretty much what you saw today. The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but don’t press. This choppy action is a pain in the short term but is giving the market a chance to rest and set up some levels for later in the week.

abx 42 long

aem 62ish long

gg 41 long

luv 14 long

sun 32 long

wlt 99.5 long

esrx 105 long

mfe 42 long

hgsi 27.37 long

ilmn 36.10/35.96 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

aet 29.8 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

agu 60.43 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

dgx 56.65 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hum 41.53 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

jpm 42.98 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-04-25T18:37:00.000-04:00

Corey Rosenbloom from the Afraid to Trade blog has put up another outstanding blog post this time on gold. It dovetails nicely with my earlier post. If you expect to be trading gold or any of the gold names this week I suggest you read Corey's post.

2010-04-25T14:19:00.003-04:00

Weakness in the dollar index, lead to a strong rally in the commodity complex Friday. DIG, UYM & OIH were all up over 3% followed closely by XME and XLE which were also up over 2%. There was some weakness in retailers and consumer staples but nothing to get excited about.

There was some decent action in the morning and then things quieted down in the afternoon with a slow grind up to new 2010 highs at the end of the day. This is still a strong tape and is showing no signs of giving it up.

GLD had a nice bounce off of the 20 day MA and looks like it may want to break out of range that goes back to December. Keep an eye on the $114 level. You may recall that Soros doubled his position in GLD and that story is sure to get a lot of play if GLD starts to breakout.

The earnings parade continues but there are no economic announcements Monday and a Fed announcement Wednesday so be picky in your trading early this week.

The following ideas may be actionable:

abx 42 long

aem 62ish long

wcrx 28 long

asia 30 long

fnsr 14.47 long

gg 41 long

luv 14 long

netl 34 long

nfx 57 long

nsc 61 long

hgsi 27.32 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ilmn 36.10/35.96 reversal/support buy on 200&150 day MA

2010-04-22T21:51:00.002-04:00

The market opened weak this morning bring the SPY down as low as 119.12 and effectively testing the 20 day MA before President Obama once again gave a speech saving the market and humanity. SPY closed the day at the highs just .50 shy of the 2010 highs, watch SPY 121.57.

Homebuilders (XHB), real estate (URE) and regional banks (KRE) lead the day all up 3% with pharma(PPH), healthcare (XLV) and silver (SLV) among the weakest groups.

The market is still well bid and is respecting technical’s go through your charts and see how many names bounced off of or stopped at important moving averages. In this environment I can’t stress enough how important these levels are.

For informational purposes small caps (IWM),real estate ( IYR), regional banks( KRE), mid caps (MDY), NASDAQ (QQQQ) ,retail(RTH), home builders ( XHB) and consumer discretionary( XLY), all put in new 2010 highs today.

I am not sure what to make of tomorrow. We have a FOMC announcement and GDP next week so I don’t know if we are going to get one last flurry of activity before things go quiet or if folks are just going to pack it in early and enjoy the weather. Either way I am still leaning to the bullish side until we break the 20 day MA on SPY with some authority.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but don’t press especially as the day goes on, I think things will be pretty quiet in the afternoon.

a 36.5 long

apa 109 long

atw 38 long

hmin 35.5 long

xlu 30.5 long

asia 30 long

biib 51.14 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ilmn 36 reversal/support buy on 150 &200 day MA

mee 40.52 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-04-21T20:53:00.000-04:00

I know a lot of traders were looking for AAPL to set the tone for today and as such were expecting a much better day than they got. Even with AAPL 5.58% gain NASDAQ closed with only a .17% gain and the S&P was down 0.10% a mixed performance overall. The old Wall Street saying “sell in May and go way” occurred to me during the day and you can expect to hear that TV by the end of the week.

I continue to be cautious because some of the bigger stocks that I consider to be market and economic bellwethers have not been acting well lately. For example WMT is trading right on its 50 Day MA, BAC & JPM have broken a nice up trend line going back to the February low and are right on the 20 day MA. POT is right on the 150 day MA, QCOM is down over 9% AH and is below the 200 day MA. GS has its legal issues and even a strong quarter couldn’t get it going, it is important that GS hold the 155 level. I write this not as a chicken little the sky is falling warning I just like to be aware of the macro environment and I consider these levels to be important. We could easily bounce off of these levels and be off to the races.

With that said the market is still chugging along. Selloffs are short and shallow and some import sectors continue to make new highs. Away from AAPL, small caps (IWM), regional banks (KRE), retail (RTH), home builders (XHB) and consumer discretionary (XLY) all put in new 2010 highs today. So I continue to trade from the long side and look to buy on pullbacks to MA’s.

Along with the parade of earnings this week we have PPI and jobless claims tomorrow at 8:30, Existing home sales at 10:00 and a speech by President Obama at 11:55, be aware.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow. As always know where the important moving averages are and use reasonable stops.

apol 66 long

esrx 105 long

rs 54 long

sbux 26 long

wfsl 21 long

ilmn 37 short cover before 150 day MA 36.13

biib 51.99 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

bucy 65.44 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ctrp 34.53 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

nem 50.5 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

sid 18.33 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

teva 61.44 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

2010-04-20T17:22:00.000-04:00

The market gapped open this morning and effectively traded in a .50 range for the rest of the day. It was a quiet day ahead of the AAPL numbers. As I write this it appears they like the AAPL numbers and it is trading around 259 up about $14 from the close. That has the QQQQ and the SPY trading close to the 2010 highs, let’s see what tomorrow brings. I want to see if AAPL has enough to bring the broader market to new 2010 highs with it.

Today’s gap up and sideways action provided little opportunity to buy on dips, but at the same time the breakouts that did trigger were mixed genz (failed) srcl (.12 gain). My point is, in this quiet choppy market be picky.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow. I am going to have a close eye on AAPL to see if he is driving the market tomorrow, but there is a good chance that he does his own thing and the market just trades on.

apol 66 long

cern 90 long

driv 32 long

stx 20 long

ads 68.5 long

apa 109 long

dlb 60 long

luv 14/13.95 long

rost 57 long

shld 111.5 long

slb 68 long

ilmn 37 short cover before the 150 day MA 36.13

aa 13.41 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ati 50/49.68 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bucy 65.1 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

enr 59.84 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

infy 59.04 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

tck 40.38 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wdc 37.39 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

2010-04-19T21:07:00.000-04:00

To me the market felt weaker than the index’s showed. Decliners led advancers and on my watch list only 84 of 275 stocks were green, with that said the NSDAQ composite is still above the 20 day MA and the S&P bounced off the 20 day MA, on cue ,with a nice little rally in the last hour to close the day green. 1184, the 20 day MA, is now an important spot for the S&P (SPY 118.46).

Some of the commodities had a tough time today, steel, coal and crude all trailed while financials, real estate and pharma were among the leaders.

Due to this GS situation and all of the earnings this week the market seems to be pretty tentative. Breakouts by and large did not work today (PNRA,SYNA) and buying support was mixed and took a while to work.

My plan for tomorrow is going to be much the same as it was today, wait for the dust to settle form the open and try and buy selectively on support levels and MA’s. I will also have a close eye on the recent lows in the important stocks and etf’s to make sure the recent lows hold if tested (GS 155, AAPL 243ish, SPY 118.46, QQQQ 48.72 and IWM 69.63).

There are enough alerts on MA’s for tomorrow that you can well afford to let one or two pass and make sure that support buys are working. Remember no catching falling knives. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news; let it penetrate the level and snap back up through it. Buy on the way back up and use the low as your stop. Only try this the first time around and if one after another are going through the level like they are not even there, stay away.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

apol 66 long

cern 90 long

driv 32 long

genz 54 long

srcl 56 long

stx 20 long

xec 65 long

bhi 47 short

aa 13.39 support/reversal but on 200 day

agu 60.05 support/reversal but on 150 day

apc 70.55 support/reversal but on 50 day

ati 50/49.47 support/reversal but on 50 day

ato 28.53 support/reversal but on 150 day

bucy 64.73 support/reversal but on 50 day

clf 61.88 support/reversal but on 50 day

cli 34.38 support/reversal but on 50 day

csiq 19.95 support/reversal but on 200 day

ctsh 50.07 support/reversal but on 50 day

ctxs 46.07 support/reversal but on 50 day

de 58.22 support/reversal but on 50 day

jbl 15.2 support/reversal but on 150 day

jcg 42 support/reversal but on 150 day

mbt 53.94 support/reversal but on 50 day

sid 18.15 support/reversal but on 50 day

wdc 37.32 support/reversal but on 200 day

wlt 85.99 support/reversal but on 50 day

2010-04-18T10:07:00.000-04:00

Well it had to happen at some point. An actual honest to God down day in the market, I almost forgot what it was like. In the history of Wall Street selloffs Friday’s action was nothing. The SPY was down 1.44% Friday and actually closed only .16 lower than Mondays open so the week was basically a push.

GS was down 12.33% on heavy volume and closed below all the important MA’s. The low for the day in GS was 155.55 so keep an eye on that spot. There is some import support down around the 150 level (the February lows) keep an eye on that as well.

Away from GS the sell off was hard on commodities, financials and real estate but most of those groups found support on the 20 day MA. Individual financials had a nice bounce off the 20 day MA BAC &BBT are excellent examples of this action, and it may set the tone for next week.

I’m not sure what Monday will bring, but I think a gap down into support would probably be the best case scenario. We shake out the weak hands build a base and then grind em higher. A gap up open will probably be sold so be cautious there.

I will be very selective Monday until we sort things out but my plan is to try and pick up stocks on moving averages and prior breakouts which are now support. Be patient with this, if you start to see a stocks bounce off of MA’s, especially in the same sector, than give it a try. If one after another goes right through the MA like it wasn’t even there stay away. Remember don’t catch falling knives. If you are trying to buy on a support level or MA wait for the stock to go down through the level, vertically on light volume and then buy it on the way back up through the level. Use the bottom of that candle as a stop. Also you only do this the first time around; second touches on the MA or the support level are prone to failure.

The following ideas may be actionable on Monday but use caution.

apol 66 long

cern 90 long

driv 32 long

pnra 84 long

srcl 56 long

stx 20 long

syna 30 long

xec 65 long

aa 13.38 support/reversal buy on 200 day MA

abx 38.1 support/reversal buy on 200 day MA

aem 58 support/reversal buy on 20 & 50 day MA

agu 59.97 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

ato 28.53 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

biib 51.93 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

gdx 44.69 support/reversal buy on 200 day MA

gww 99.57 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

hig 26.34/25.78 support/reversal buy on 50 &150 day MA

mee 40.19 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

pot 104.43 support/reversal buy on 200 day MA

spg 80.6 support/reversal buy on 50 day MA

sun 28.06 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

2010-04-15T21:48:00.002-04:00

We had another up day on modest volume and volatility. The solars, transports and industrials lead with real estate, steel and home builders trailing. The weakness and heavy volume in the real estate names really stood out to me on the charts tonight. IYR is closing in on its 20 day MA (50.92) keep it on your platform and see what happens if we get there. My guess is it gets bought the first time around, but use more caution if it goes crashing through there.

Tomorrow is Friday and the economic calendar is light right through to the PPI # next Thursday so take it easy don’t press, just trade quality set ups.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

mbt 59

srcl 56

stx 20

tii 20

mmm 85 this is a minor spot

hoc 25.53 reversal/support buy on 200 day

I have been watching the following gold stocks for a while, AEM, ABX & GG. They are stuck between moving averages below and a breakout level above. I am putting two levels on here, the break out level and the moving average reversal/support buy level. If you see one of them testing the support level and go crashing through it like it wasn’t even there then don’t try and buy the others on support, common sense I know but we all flake out sometimes.

AEM 62 breakout 59.49 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ABX 42 breakout 39.22 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

GG 41 breakout 39.01 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

2010-04-14T17:56:00.000-04:00

INTC and JPM came in with good numbers and helped to drive the market to new 2010 highs on decent volume for a change.

As you would expect semi’s and financials were among the strongest sectors, with pharmaceuticals, healthcare and fertilizers trailing.

It looks like UPS has good things to say after the close so expect more of the same tomorrow.

The market continues to be well bid and I will stay with the trend until it changes, but be nimble this action will not last. If you want to have an eye opener read this post from Dr. Brett Steenbarger on the CBOE Equity Put-Call ratio it will really give you something to think about.

In the mean time up we go. The following ideas may be actionable for tomorrow but as always look for good set ups close to a base and use reasonable stops. Also be on the lookout for failed breakouts. They have been coming in clusters with a following market and it has been about the only way to be short recently.

rax 20 long

ir 38 long

crk 36 long

aem 62 long

gg 41 long

abx 42 long

abfs 31 long

amx 52 long

cnq 80 long

spwra 18 short

gdx 46.43 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

gld 110.07 reversal/support buy on 20 day MA

kmb 60.4 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

2010-04-13T21:34:00.000-04:00

This is still an incredibly resilient and strong market, if you are not a believer take a look at GOOG and ISRG today. We opened lower on the AA earnings from yesterday and sold off to the middle of Friday’s range before reversing and closing near the highs. SPY stopped right at yesterday’s high and pulled back a bit on the bell. I entertained the thought of a possible double top, but I think INTC will take of that tomorrow.

Gold (GLD) and the gold miners (GDX) were under pressure for a second day today. Further weakness may bring them into important support levels. The 20 day MA for GLD is 109.93 and the 150 day MA for GDX is 46.41. Keep those levels in GLD & GDX on your platform there will be a lot of eyes on those spots.

For an example of how important these levels can be in commodity names look at USO and OIH today. USO 20 day MA (40.33) (LOD 40.28). OIH 20 day MA (123.86) LOD (123.50).

CPI and retail sales are before the open. Bernanke speaks at 10:00, the petroleum #’s are at 10:30, the Beige book is at 2:00 and JPM reports after the close so be ready for anything.

The charts are pretty messy right now so I have fewer ideas that usual. Remember that breakout/down levels don’t expire. So keep them on your platform until they trigger. Pull back spots to moving averages expire after a day or two.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

amgn 61 long

nyt 12 long

rax 20 long

ir 38 long

spwra 18 short

ipi 27.32 reversal/support buy on 200 day ma

wcrx 24.98 reversal/support buy on 150 day ma

wmt 54.44 reversal/support buy on 50 day ma

gdx 56.41 reversal/support buy on 150 day ma

gld 109.93 reversal/support buy on 20 day ma

2010-04-12T21:14:00.001-04:00

It was another quiet choppy session on below average volume with the S&P barely positive. Considering the major earnings and economic reports this week it should be expected. I suspect tomorrow will be similar.

Solars, home builders and semis outperformed while copper, gold miners and real estate underperformed.

The apparent resolution of the Greek problems put pressure on the dollar index and it is now back below the 20 & 50 day MA’s. The market didn’t seem to care today we will see if that lasts.

The following idea’s may be actionable tomorrow but be picky this market feels tired and stocks that have broken out have been sloppy and prone to failure. Look for good volume, be nimble and use reasonable stops.

abx 42 long

aem 62 long

amgn 61 long

cf 93 long

gg 41 long

nyt 12 long

rax 20 long

bvn 35.5 long

ge 19 long

ir 38 long

spwra 18 short

agu 66.68 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

hum 43.52 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-04-11T22:15:00.000-04:00

Choppiness was the order of the day Friday with a small hook up at the end. Retailers, metals & miners and consumer discretionary were the winners with soalrs, the dollar and crude trailing. I expect much the same on Monday with a light economic calendar and earnings kicking off after the close.

I saw a report tonight that said Soros has doubled the size of his position in GLD. It may explain why I like what I am seeing in the gold names and that three of them have made it onto the list for tomorrow.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but don’t press I think it is going to be pretty choppy.

aapl 242 long

abx 42 long

aem 62 long

amgn 61 long

bbt 34 long

gg 41 long

nyt 12 long

rax 20 long

scco 35 long

slab 51 long

vmw 55 long

cf 93 long

spwra 18 short

biib 56 short

clx 63 reversal/support buy on prior breakout

hum 43.47 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sanm 16.08 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

srcl 53.4 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

vrtx 39.13 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-04-08T17:01:00.002-04:00

It was a choppy low volume day with financials, homebuilders and retailers leading; while energy lagged.

The market opened weak, below yesterdays low, but slowly rallied throughout the day closing at the highs, but below yesterdays high making three consecutive lower highs and lower lows.

Tomorrow’s economic calendar is light, so I expect similar choppy action for the next couple of sessions, because AA kicks off earning season Monday after the close.

In the mean time I want to keep an eye on this growing trend of lower highs and lower lows. The recent highs (119.36) and 20 day MA (117.07) for SPY will be on a lot of radar screens. My best guess is that the first test of the 20 day MA will be bought, especially if we come into it in vertically on light volume and no news. So be aware of this level and the important MA’s in anything you are trading.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but be on guard for choppy light volume action.

cmtl 33.2 long

gva 31.6 long

mtb 85 long

nfx 56 long

paas 25 long

rax 20 long

slb 67 long

gg 41 long

swk 60 long

amgn 61 long

cell 8 long

sanm 16.03 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

sina 37.79 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

swks 15.01 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wcrx 24.87 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-04-07T21:15:00.000-04:00

An interesting day in the market all things considered, we actually had a down day, some volume and volatility. I almost forgot what it was like. There was a good showing by the gold miners (GDX), solar’s (TAN), and gold (GLD) with real estate (URE) and energy names (DIG, OIH) trailing.

AAPL and GS also put a good show today, AAPL put in a new high (241.92) and GS was up 2.04% on above average volume and is closing in on 178.75. This is an important level for GS and will be a place to watch in the days to come.

This afternoon’s selloff came after SPY&QQQQ tried to make a new 2010 high and failed. It also followed a 10 year bond auction and comments by Bernanke. We have both a 30 year auction and Fed speak tomorrow so be aware.

Those of you that have read this blog for a while have seen me post about TLT and the $89 level. After today’s auction TLT went as high as 88.92 on better than average volume. I think that level in TLT merits our attention especially considering the sell off after today’s auction.

No real technical damage was done in today’s sell off, SPY is still well above its 20 day MA on the daily chart and the 150 day on the weekly chart, but it may have given the bulls something to think about.

Yesterday I wrote “as extended as we are failed breakouts are providing opportunities to flip and get short.” My best trades today came from a couple of failed breakouts and like buying the pullback to an important support level; the failed breakout can be a nice addition to your trading arsenal.

DLB 60, BGC 29 & MMM 84.50 all worked well as failed break outs.

Today’s pullback has set up a number of break out spots, that I have included. Leave them on your platform until they trigger they don’t expire. There are also a couple of shorts and some support/reversal buys. I am not sure what to expect from tomorrow so stay nimble and keep reasonable stops.

gva 31.6 long

abx 41 long

adsk 31 long

cmtl 33.2 long

dlb 60 long

gs 178.75 long

gva 31.6 long

mtb 85 long

nfx 56 long

nsc 58 long

paas 25 long

rax 20 long

slb 67 long

sndk 36.25 long

genz 51 short

gild 45 short

clx 62 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ice 105.2 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ipi 27.80/.28 reversal/support buy on 27.80 150 day MA 27.28 200 day MA

mos 55.98 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

wcrx 24.83 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-04-06T20:56:00.002-04:00

The market continued its low volume grind today but there was some good action being long financials, especially regional banks and short semis and ag names.

As evidenced by names like AA and BBT breakouts are still working, but as extended as we are failed breakouts are providing opportunities to flip and get short. GS for example tried to break out through its 20 day MA (173.82) failed and proceeded to roll over for $1. There are many more examples.

I continue to find many more breakout long alerts than anything else but, we are pretty extended here and this low volume and volatility can’t last. So stay nimble.

intu 35 long

dlb 60 long

rax 20 long

netl 31.5 long

swk 60 long

vlo 21 long

apc 75 long

cnq 80 long

hans 44 long

mtb 85 long

vmw 55 long

ice 105.09 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

pot 114.23 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

2010-04-05T21:00:00.002-04:00

A new 2010 high in the SPY today but it was not confirmed by new 2010 highs in AAPL, the NASDAQ composite, iyr, iyt, smh or xlf among others. The SPY was up less than 1% but it was a nice strong trend day none the less with real estate, commodities and materials leading the way.

Bonds of all maturities were down across the board.

TLT closed on the lows of the day and much was made on tv about higher interest rates. We will have to see if the FOMC minutes at 2:00 tomorrow have any effect on the market. Remember that the last time the TLT was down here was back in October 2007 the all time high in the market.

After such a nice strong trend day I wouldn’t be surprised to see some consolidation and choppiness tomorrow, but the following ideas may be actionable. Considering the strength in the market MON 70 short could be a place to look for a support/reversal buy and also watch for failed breakouts as a place to possibly put on a short.

aa 14.82 long

intu 35 long

mmm 84.5 long

amgn 61 long

bbt 33 long

dlb 60 long

rax 20 long

mon 70 short

pot 114.11 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

mos 55.87 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

mtb 77.52 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

2010-04-03T18:22:00.000-04:00

I wasn't expecting much on Thursday but as it turns out some important things happened and has given us some important market tells going forward.

The SPY gapped open to a fractionally new 2010 high, and we chopped around above Wednesdays range until about 2:00 when the market started to rollover.

IWM, IYT and IYR ,for example, bounced hard off their 20 day MA's. We came into those levels vertical on light volume and no news, just the way you want to buy a stock on a pullback/reversal you want to see the same thing in the broader market.

On the afraidtotrade.com blog Corey Rosenbloom wrote an outstanding post about the rounded arc forming on NASDAQ index. In that he wrote about the 2380 level as being significant. The low for the day on the NASDAQ was 2383.77.

These levels were on a lot of people’s radar screens and the market acted the way you would want when we got there. A quick touch or spike down through the number, the sellers get exhausted and then a snap back on decent volume. Thursday’s lows and those moving averages need to be watched closely. If we get back down there again things may not go so well next time.

One of the things that was less obvious was the TLT. Readers of this blog may remember my observations about the 89 level on TLT and the subsequent market selloff's. I almost missed it but TLT closed below 89 on the weekly chart for the first time since the week of 10/12/07 the same week as the all time high in the SPY.

I am not suggesting that the end is near I am just saying that this is something that merits some close attention. AAPL is at all time highs in front of the Ipad launch with the 3rd largest market cap in the country yet GS can barely bounce off of its 150 day MA. Is one of these stocks the canary in the coal mine?

I will continue to closely monitor the dollar index and the TLT. Is the selloff in the bond market going to continue, and if so what implications do those higher rates have. Or could we have something similar to 2007 a rally in the bond market and a big selloff in equities.

The FOMC minutes are due out at 2:00 Tuesday and could easily affect the markets.

I think a lot of kids are out of school next week and that could lead to lower volumes and choppiness so don’t press.

aa 14.82 long

abfs 30.45 long

gww 110 long

hrs 48 long

intu 35 long

sun 31 long

mon 70 short

cf 91.17 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

stx 17.06 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

swks 14.86 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wcrx 24.72 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-03-31T20:47:00.003-04:00

It was quiet and choppy for most of the day today, until a late afternoon selloff bought us down to the lows of the day. A weaker dollar lead to some buying in the commodities (OIH, USO & SLV) but the late day sell off really made it feel weak.

I was short going into this afternoon’s selloff because the SPY couldn’t breakout through that SPY 117.61 (150 DAY MA on the SPY weekly chart) level I have been watching. Truth be told, one tick above that level and I probably would have covered and gone long but we never got there. The more we fail there, the more important it becomes so keep an eye on it.

Not expecting much tomorrow but there are two things I will watching the 117.60ish level on the SPY and IWM 67.71(20 day MA). The small caps (IWM) are a good measure of risk appetite and have helped lead this market. As a matter of fact IWM has been through its 150 day MA on the weekly chart for 5 weeks, but now it is rolling over and is testing its 20 day MA on the downside. I will be watching to see if the small caps are going to continue to lead the market lower or if we get a bounce off of this level.

ISM and construction spending at 10:00, nat gas #’s at 10:30 and then the big employment # on Friday morning when we will be home. Take it easy tomorrow and don’t press.

I have a handful of ideas for tomorrow but I doubt it will be good day so be very picky.

anf 46 long

foe 9 long

gmcr 98.5 long

gs 169.9 long

wlt 94 long

jag 9 short

wcrx 24.7 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-03-30T20:33:00.002-04:00

It was a decent day for breakouts in the morning before the market quieted down and went into holiday mode. Volume in the SPY was well below average and will probably remain this way for the rest of the week. So don’t press.

I am continuing to watch the 150 day MA on the SPY weekly chart (117.61) like last Thursday we broke through that level early this morning and then rolled over unable to hold onto the gains. I will be keeping an eye on this level to see if it continues to provide a lid to the market.

Tomorrow morning we have the ADP employment report, Chicago PMI, Factory orders and the petroleum numbers all before 10:30 but I don’t think any of these will be market moving events. There are a lot of eyes on Friday’s job’s number but we are closed Friday so enjoy and worry about that on Monday.

As I wrote earlier this a holiday week and it is trading accordingly so trade accordingly and use the breakout levels as possible targets or a place to fade the move on a failed breakout/down.

aem 54 short

jag 9 short

mon 70 short

ntes 36 short

aem 54 short

fnsr 16 long

foe 9 long

oxy 85 long

pxd 55 long

adsk 30 long

gww 110 long

bmc 36.93 support/reversal buy on 200 day

wcrx 24.67 support/reversal buy on 150 day

2010-03-29T18:29:00.002-04:00

It was a quite lackluster day with light volume to go along with it. The SPY traded in a tight .84 range. A weaker dollar lead to buying in the commodity names and the bond market continues to be under pressure.

We are still pinned between the 20 day MA (115.47) and the recent highs (118.10) until that changes I expect more of this kind of action. Case-Shiller HPI tomorrow before the open and consumer confidence at 10:00, I doubt these will be market moving.

I often stress the importance of the major moving averages (20, 50,150,200). They can be excellent places to buy on a pull back or make sales. Two outstanding examples of this happened today. GS came vertically into the 20 day MA today on light volume and no news. He bounced right off of it and closed at the high of the day. The other was in GLD. GLD traded in a very tight range today pinned between the 20 and 50 day MA’s reversing at both of them. The MA’s are important and you should know where they especially in on quiet days like today.

I have included breakouts both long and short and one reversal/pullback.

adsk 30 long

vmw 55 long

wlt 94 long

vale 32 long

ma 252 long

sohu 56 long

amzn 137 long

nue 46.5 long

fnsr 16 long

foe 9 long

gww 110 long

nflx 75 long

sid 40 long

rht 27.9 reversal pullback buy on 200 day MA

mon 70 short

ntes 36 short

aem 54 short

2010-03-28T14:44:00.002-04:00

Considering the selloff Thursday I thought the market held up well Friday especially in light of the situation in Korea. The dollar was weaker and that lead to some buying in commodities. Copper (JJC), basic materials (UYM) and silver (SLV) were among the stronger sectors. Regional banks (KRE) brokers (IAI) and healthcare (XLV) were among the weakest.

The SPY is still pinned between the 2010 high (118.10) put in Thursday and the 20 day MA (115.20) I expect choppy action until that gets resolved. My best guess is that we are going to consolidate below the highs for a couple of sessions the 20 day MA will catch up to us and then we will probably move higher. Stay tuned.

The dollar and bond auctions really moved the market last week so they will continue to be on my radar screen this week. There is a 3 month and 6 month bill auction tomorrow at 11:30 let’s keep an eye on them.

I have included some breakout/down and a few reversal/support buys. The choppy action I expect lends itself to buying pullbacks and fading breakouts/downs so keep that in mind. And as always never catch a falling knife and use reasonable stops.

adsk 30 long

amx 50 long

vmw 55 long

wlt 94 long

amzn 137 long

mon 70 short

ntes 36 short

do 83 short

nfx 46.66 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

rax 17.39 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

rht 27.86 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

oih 115.24 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

2010-03-25T21:35:00.002-04:00

Well that was as ugly a close as I can remember in a while. It took a while to unfold but the bad bond auction took TLT down through the 89 level, it still appears to be significant. The question is will it have further implications for the market or was this just a little late afternoon selloff?

Small caps (IWM), mid caps (MDY), NASDAQ, (QQQQ), the S&P (SPY), real estate (IRE) and transports (IYT) show no real technical damage and are still above their 20 day MA’s. In fact retail (RTH) financials (XLF) and consumer discretionary (XLY) were up on the day.

The same cannot be said about the commodity complex however. Energy (XLE, KOL, DIG, USO, OIH) and gold (GLD, GDX) are showing some real signs of weakness. The strength in the dollar is putting tremendous pressure on them and we have to see if this spreads to the broader market.

In June of 2009 when TLT broke the 89 level it went as low as 87.56 before rebounding. I will be closely monitoring that level if we get there. I will want to see what a real sell off in the bond market does to equities.

Not sure what to expect tomorrow. We have GDP at 8:30 and then consumer sentiment at 9:55. Unless GDP is a complete disaster, which I do not expect, I don’t expect either of these numbers to impact the market. Instead I will be watching the dollar to see if it can give us any direction in the commodity names.

I am including breakout longs/shorts and support/reversal buys. Considering the pickup in volatility and the sector selloff in commodities be extra careful. If you see name after name in a sector breakdown through moving averages or support levels don’t stand in there and try buying the pull backs. In the reverse if you start to see breakdowns or breakout happen and then fail be more cautious and maybe look to fade the next one. As always know your levels and keep reasonable stops.

rig 80 short

drq 59.2 short

dvn 62.6 short

mon 70 short

ntes 36 short

swn 38 short

vrsn 26 short

vrtx 41.5 short

gld 105.88 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

nem 47.97 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

aa 13.75 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

agu 69.19 reversal/support buy on 20 day MA

bg 63.27/62.91 reversal/support buy on 150/200 day MA

bhi 43.59 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

nfx 46.61 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

oih 115.21 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

adsk 30 long

vmw 55 long

wlt 94 long

2010-03-24T21:50:00.000-04:00

Today was not so much a down day so much as it was an inside day consolidating our recent gains, under the highs (117.51) and above the day 20 day MA (114.61). For the most part it was a choppy day on below average volume.

The real action however was in bonds, currencies and the volatility index. There were huge in moves in the dollar index, bonds and volatility index which could have implications on equities in the days to come.

Fitch downgraded Portugal’s credit rating last night, that coupled with a poorly received bond auction conspired to give us a big selloff in the US Treasury bond market. TLT closed the day at 89.27 down almost 2% on massive volume.

Readers of this blog may remember my observations about the 89 level in TLT. In June of 2009 TLT broke the 89 level snapped right back and was quickly followed by a roughly 10% selloff in the SPY.

Again on January 11th of this year TLT broke 89 snapped right back and again was quickly followed by an almost 10% selloff in the SPY.

On February 18th however TLT broke 89 and we did not get the hard selloff in the market. Clearly this is not a perfect indicator and in fact maybe a coincidence, but given the ferocity in the selloff in the bonds today, the rally in the dollar and the levels that the market is at, this is clearly worth watching.

I may be making more of this move in the bond market than is necessary, financials (XLF, JPM, and BAC) and tech (XLK, AAPL, and HPQ) look good. But some of the commodities especially the precious metals (GLD, SLV & GDX) look vulnerable. It seems as if macro traders are anticipating some Fed tightening before inflation starts.

With that said I don’t really have any good short candidates for tomorrow. In fact I have mostly break out longs, support/reversal buys and 1 short. Remember the rules on buying pullbacks and use reasonable stops.

anf 45 long

intu 35 long

mtl 27.5 long

avp 33 long

jcg 46 long

vale 32 long

omg 35.5 long

wfsl 20.5 long

rig 80 short

atw 33.15 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

cnq 69 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

slb 61.12 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

gld 105.88 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

2010-03-23T22:46:00.000-04:00

I my previous post I wrote a little bit about the 150 day MA on the SPY weekly chart and the bigger picture. In doing some of my research I ran across an outstanding post about the Vixx index from Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to trade.com. It is a longer term look at the Vixx levels and where we are now. If you have an interest in a more macro view of the markets I highly recommend this post.

2010-03-23T21:05:00.002-04:00

The march continues. Once again commodities including materials (UYM), steel (SLX) and coals (KOL) were the leading sectors helping to carry the market to a fractionally new 2010 high. AAPL put in a new all time high today and continues to be one of the leaders in this market have it on your trading platform at all times. It was not all beer and skittles however; GS and GOOG were both down on the day and may be trying to tell us that the market needs a rest. We have had a tremendous run Feb 5th low, I count only 7 red candles in the SPY since then. I’m not sure that tomorrows durable goods or new home sales #’s are enough to slow us down but a pause wouldn’t hurt.

In a the bigger picture the SPY is coming up in to the 150 day MA on the weekly chart (117.85) this may also lend some resistance so I will be watching that level closely.

Again I have some breakout longs, support/reversal buys and even a few short ideas. Just remember that when you are looking to trade the breakout/breakdown ideally you want a buy or sell near a nice base and then a move through the level on a burst of volume. On a reversal you want to stock to come into the level vertically on light volume pierce it and then snap back through, buy on the way up and use the bottom of the candle as a stop. DON’T CATCH A FALLING KNIFE, nothing news related and no heavy volume sector wide selloffs.

anf 45 long

mfe 42 long

gdx 47 long

intu 35 long

mtl 27.5 long

avp 33 long

foe 9ish long

hog 29 long

jcg 46 long

osk 42 long

rig 80 short

dbc 23 short

mur 53.5 reversal buy on 50 day

nfx 46.47 reversal buy on 150 day

2010-03-22T21:26:00.000-04:00

This market continues to be very bullish. Every dip to a moving average or a support zone is being bought and the SPY is just under the 2010 high. Let’s be cautious.

The AAPL 220 level proved to be a terrific tell for the market today. The stock dove briefly on the open, that level was bought aggressively and it never even came close to seeing those prices for the rest of the day. It was a great sign that pullbacks to important levels could be bought. Go through your charts and see how many stocks bounced off of a moving average. Keep that AAPL 220 level on your platform for now, it is important.

Existing home sales at 10:00 am is the only real important piece of economic data out tomorrow, but it probably won’t have much of an impact on the broader market. I will be watching the dollar index as a tell for the direction of the market especially the commodities.

I have been having some success buying reversals back up through moving averages and with breakouts as long as the stock is not extended intraday. So I am going to keep trying that until it stops working.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow, just remember that when you are buying pullbacks wait for the level to be broken in a vertical fashion on light volume and then buy going back up through the alert level, never try and catch a falling knife. Use the bottom of that candle as your stop.

breakout

cat 60.5 long

jbl 18 long

mfe 42 long

sohu 56 long

anf 45 long

intu 35 long

gld 105.67 reversal buy on 150 day

apa 98.44 reversal buy on 150 day

apc 67.77 reversal buy on 50 day

atw 33.07 reversal buy on 200 day

cnq 69.05 reversal buy on 50 day

eog 88.73 reversal buy on 150 day

gdx 44.05 reversal buy on 200 day

hoc 26.48 reversal buy on 150 day

xec 56.5 reversal buy on 50 day

2010-03-21T21:01:00.002-04:00

Friday was the first decent down day we have had in the market in well over a month. The dollar was strong and it caused some pain in the commodity space. Oil, materials and metals all underperformed.

I’m not sure if the SPY has put in a short term top and will roll over testing the 20 day MA (113.65) or if we are going to consolidate here below the highs for a few sessions and then push higher. Commodities say we are going lower but the financials and GS in particular are holding up just fine.

One of the tells I will be using to test the resiliency of the market is AAPL 220. When AAPL broke out through 220 back on March 9th it was on big volume and very convincing. This level has already been tested once (3/15) and the second test could tell us how much conviction the bulls have in this rally. This level is going to be on a lot of screens so keep an eye on it if we get there.

For tomorrow I have 5 breakout long ideas and 2 breakdown short ideas and 4 reversal/support ideas, more on those later. To be honest with you I am not expecting a lot of explosive action in the market tomorrow so treat the breakout/down levels as targets or as a place to fade the move after a false breakout/down.

I have found that buying on pull backs to important moving averages has been having some success and I have a few ideas that fit that profile. Remember that when buying a pullback you want a light volume vertical move to the MA. You do not want anything news driven or a heavy volume sector wide selloff. You want an over anxious sloppy seller chasing price coming vertical into a moving average. Ideally the level will be broken the seller is exhausted and the stock snaps right back up through your alert level. Then you have buyers on your side and a built in stop level at the bottom of that candle. But I caution you to only buy them after the level has been broken and it is trading back above the price. DO NOT TRY AND CATCH A FALLING KNIFE!!!! Also I only try this the first time around every time a level is tested the weaker it gets.

cat 60.5 long

de 60 long

dgx 58 long

jbl 18 long

gild 48 long

cmi 58 short

spwra 18.5 short

apa 98.35 reversal buy on 150 day

apc 67.7 reversal buy on 50 day

atw 33.04 reversal buy on 200 day

cnx 44.4 reversal buy on 200 day

2010-03-18T17:13:00.003-04:00

Sorry I haven’t posted much this week I have had some personal issues to deal with and time was short, nothing serious just normal stuff. True be told though I didn’t really have much to say. We just continue to melt up on moderate volume and in tight ranges. The range yesterday in the SPY was .77 and today it was .70.

Market rumors of a discount rate hike in the US put a bid in the dollar today and that helped to weigh heavily on the commodity sector today. OIH, DIG, UYM and XME were among the weakest ETF;s on my platform today. Transports (thanks FDX) XLV and UUP were among the strongest.

Watch out for things like this as the market gets more extended and nervous traders try to get things to go their way.

Tomorrow is quadruple witch and I traditionally do very little trading on this day because there is usually too many programs and to little edge.

I have a few ideas for tomorrow they are all breakout longs except for one short. Considering how extended and sloppy this market is these alert levels could easily be used as targets or as a place fade the move on a failed breakout. However I would encourage you to be more picky than usual tomorrow. The volume can be deceiving because of the options expiration.

alb 43 long

cat 60.5 long

de 60 long

dgx 58 long

jbl 18 long

mfe 42 long

fls 108 long

ntrs 56 long

trw 28 long

vrsn 27.07 long

gdx 47 long

swn 40.5 short

2010-03-16T20:52:00.002-04:00

I didn’t post on Sunday and Monday because of some technology and personal issues I had to deal with but ahead of the Fed meeting I didn’t really think there was much to say anyway. Now with it behind us hopefully we can get some more volume and action back on this market. The rest of the week brings PPI, CPI, jobless claims, leading indicators and the philly fed survey all before quadruple witching Friday. So hopefully something in there will help.

I just read that we set a new record; the SPY is up 13 days in a row. But it hasn’t been a good tape for breakout trading. Things have been a little sloppy and the volumes have been light. The market still looks pretty good to me but some consolidation would probably do us a world of good.

All of my alerts tonight are longs but again I am going to be very picky with them due to the extended nature of this market. These spots may end being good targets or a place to fade the move after a failed breakout.

arp 8

ato 29

au 38.5

gymb 52

jbl 17.75/18

oii 65

tii 19

vrsn 27

vrtx 44

oih 128

xhb 17

2010-03-11T17:11:00.002-05:00

The theme remained the same today, plenty of choppy back and forth action. SPY tested the 20 day EMA on the 60 minute chart couldn’t breakdown and then rallied to marginal new high on light volume.

The action for the most part continues to be bullish but breakout trading is not working well right now. Buying pull backs on important MA’s and previous break out levels is working better. This will likely remain the case until we have a catalyst to really breakout of the range on some volume. We may have to wait for next week’s Fed announcement or some of the inflation data to get us really moving.

I continue to watch the dollar index closely and it managed to close below the 20 day MA again. This could be a tell that we are headed for a move higher. The range has been pretty tight 81/80 and a close below 80 could give the market the shot in the arm it needs.

Even with all this chop I still have break out alerts tonight and again I am being very selective with them. I really want to see good volume and a nice smooth base before I enter trades. Failed breakouts on light volume and no news could be used as a place to flip and fade the move but short selling has been a tough game in this tape. As always use reasonable stops.

cern 85

genz 58

infy 60

wfsl 20

apa 107.5

nue 45.5

agu 69/66

wfsl 20

cog 42

agu 69/66

ctsh 51.31

pot 120

isrg 360

nfx 55

teva 61.8

trw 28

2010-03-10T21:28:00.000-05:00

Coming into today I expected a choppy range bound day and that is exactly what we got, a minor new high a stab at the lows and a return to the range. I read the following on twitter which may explain why we had such a nice bounce “HCPG RT @dinosaurtrader: the 60 ema and uptrend line since late Feb right around 114.40 an interesting spot. <-- Very nice daytrade call $$” Low of the day in the SPY was 114.41, nice daytrade call indeed.

My BAC 17 call worked pretty well as did the PXD 50 alert. But AAPL 225 was a disappointment. The volume in AAPL today and in this extended tape it did not have what it took to take AAPL to another level. This is just another reason why I continue to be cautious until there is a catalyst to really push this market higher.

Again I have a small alert list that consists of break out longs and again I do not love them. The following may be actionable tomorrow but be cautious and look for good volume, a nice base, relative strength and use reasonable stops.

cat 60 long

ccj 28 long

cern 85 long

csx 50 long

genz 58 long

infy 60 long

life 52.5 long

mtb 80 long

wfsl 20 long

2010-03-09T21:13:00.000-05:00

AAPL broke out to a new all time high today and GS tried to break above the 150 day MA and a range going back nearly two months. AAPL held up but GS didn’t and ultimately the market rally fizzled as well.

I am not calling a top or sounding any alarm bells but going forward I will be using more caution in my break out ideas because we’re coming into pretty tough resistance (SPY 115ish) and at least in the short term don’t have any good catalyst to get us through.

ORCL (25) HGSI (32)ILMN(39) SANM(17.75)CLX(62)CMI(61)INFY(60)TRV(54)URE(7.5)all triggered or were right at the number today and failed. In a more bullish tape at least some of these would have worked.

The charts are pretty extended right now and due to the number of failed break outs I don’t have as many ideas tonight. I have two lists tonight the first is trading ideas. All longs tonight and again I am not loving them. In this environment we may want to use them as targets or as a place to fade the move on a failed break out. As always look for some entries relative strength and good volume if you are trading the as break outs.

aapl 225 long

bac 17 long

csx 50 long

gymb 46 long

infy 60 long

nite 17 long

pxd 50 long

The second list is market tells that I will be using to see if we breaking out to the upside or if we are starting to roll over. Two numbers is just a short term range that I am watching and one number is a break out. My best guess is that we are going to be range bound for a few days, stuck between the 09 highs (115.15ish) and 1113ish on the SPY, until we get some reason to break the range. That may not come until next Tuesdays Fed announcement.

$index 81/80.44

spy 115/113.50

tbt 49/48.31

aapl 225/220

gs 172/168

gdx 47/45.06

rsp 41.75

tlt 90/89

qqqq 47.05

2010-03-08T20:37:00.000-05:00

The SPY traded in a very tight .45 range today. Home builders (XHB), Real Estate (URE) and brokers (IAI) were strong with the gold miners (GDX) semis (SMH) and metals & mining (XME) trailing.

The economic calendar is light this week and the market is coming up into the 2009 highs which is pretty major resistance at this point. Not to mention that there is a FOMC announcement and quadruple witching next week so be prepared for some quiet choppy action the next few days.

I have some breakout ideas for tomorrow but like this time last week I am not loving them. The market looks a little extended here and there is no catalyst to really break things out. The following levels are important and maybe good for target trades or as a place to fade the move after a failed breakout. As always look for good volume and relative strength if you are trading the breakout and use reasonable stops.

pcx 22 long

cat 60 long

genz 58 long

orcl 25 long

cern 85 long

hgsi 32 long

ilmn 39 long

sanm 17.75 long

trw 28 long

clx 62 long

mdr 26 long

cmi 61 long

cog 42 long

infy 60 long

trv 54 long

ure 7.5 long

snda 38 short

swm 42.39 short

2010-03-07T09:05:00.002-05:00

Friday was good day and it was a good week overall for my style of breakout trading. I guess the old saw that “everyone is smart in a bull market” is true. Let’s see what next week brings.

We have broken out of the SPY 112/113 range and I gotta belive the 2009 highs are the next stop. (SPY 115.14, QQQQ 46.64) The small caps (IWM) and mid caps (MDY) are already through the 09 highs.

The economic calendar is light next week and after such a nice move Friday a breather wouldn’t be out of the question. So don’t get chopped up Monday.

The only other thing I will add is the dollar. The dollar index has had relative strength since Thanksgiving and looks to be rolling below the 20 day MA for the first time since early January when the market was at its recent highs. This definitely merits attention and will be on my radar screen at all times. Since the meltdown dollar weakness has equaled strength in equities and we need to see if that correlation holds up. The levels I will be watching in the dollar index are 81 (above) 80.37 (20 day MA just below) and 79.01 (50 day MA).

I have some ideas that could be actionable early next week but like I said we could easily have a low volume chopfest early in the week so be selective. Look for good volume and relative strength/weakness. The following alerts are all longs except for two shorts that I have included for the sake of diversity. We have a pretty bullish tape right now and those short alerts levels could be a spot to fade the move on light volume and no news. As always use reasonable stops look for good volume and relative action.

orcl 25 long

nmm 16.05 long

sbux 23.5 long

adsk 29 long

podd 15.5 long

aa 14 long

cern 85 long

hgsi 32 long

ilmn 39 long

infy 59.6 long

nsc 53.15 long

rdc 28 long

sanm 17.75 long

trw 28 long

snda 38 short

swm 43.65 short

2010-03-04T21:07:00.002-05:00

The SPY continues to consolidate in the $112/113 range; we have a shot to break the range tomorrow on the employment situation numbers at 8:30 stay tuned.

GS was the story today breaking out of a 5 week range and the 50 day MA before closing the day right at the 200 day MA all on better than average volume. Is he the canary in the coal mine that tells us where we are headed?

The dollar index rallied this afternoon closing above the 20 day MA (80.37) so we will have to monitor it tomorrow and see if this rally holds.

The TBT leg of the TBT/SPY trade is still above the weekly trend line but close to being stopped out. It keeps stopping at the 150 day MA and it is going to need a close above that to have a shot at working.

I have a number of alerts tonight most are long only one short. The employment number should set the tone for trading tomorrow so watch the 112/113 range in the SPY and see which way we are leaning. If there is weakness and then and then a recovery like today these levels may act as targets. Don’t enter the trades if the stock is extended away from a base and make sure the volume is good, and always use reasonable stops.

asia 28 long

clne 19 long

cnq 71 long

orcl 25 long

driv 28.15 long

nmm 16 long

mtl 25 long

tii 18.5 long

ure 7 long

clne 19 long

dov 46.5 long

rs 47 long

dow 30 long

gpn 42.5 short

2010-03-03T20:59:00.002-05:00

Today was much like yesterday, we had a rally in the morning which provided some action with last night’s alerts, and a selloff in the afternoon. SPW (62), anss(45), hig (26) and nmm (16) worked as target/resistance shorts while jec (40), slab(46.42) and cat(59) worked as breakouts.

Yesterday afternoons selloff got me thinking that we might be due for some consolidation and we got it. The SPY has traded in less than a $1 dollar range the last two days (112-112.97) and I think that is good. This rest is clearing up the charts and potentially setting up some nice breakouts.

As I was going through my charts tonight the dollar index really jumped out at me. It closed below the 20 day MA today for the first time since January 19th which essentially was the most recent high in the market. By January 21st the SPY was below the 20 day MA and on its way to a 9% pullback.

This certainly merits our attention and if the weak dollar/strong equity trade really comes back into vogue this could help lead us back up to those 2009 highs and beyond.

I will be watching the following levels in the dollar index 80.34 (20 day MA above) and 78.95 (50 day MA below).

I am expecting, almost hoping for a little more sideways action tomorrow. Again the alerts I have are mostly longs and I do not love them, this hasn’t been a great market for breakout/breakdowns. You may want to use these spots as targets on market/sector strength or as a level to fade the move on a reversal. As always use reasonable stops and know your levels.

orcl 25 long

genz 58 long

spw 62 long

rimm 72 long

anss 45 long

driv 28.15 long

hig 26 long

nmm 16 long

sbux 23.5 long

gmcr 90 long

anr 50 long

cnq 71 long

dvn 72 long

atpg 19 long

mtl 25 long

adsk 29 long

gww 105 long

podd 15.5 long

tii 18.5 long

ure 7 long

gpn 42.5 short

2010-03-02T21:34:00.000-05:00

The s&p traded in a tight range today closing essentially unchanged after it sold off in the afternoon. We are solidly above the 50 day MA and the range from the last month.

The SPY traded in a tight .74 range finishing the day essentially unchanged because of an afternoon selloff. We’ve had a nice rebound in the market, almost 7.25% from the recent lows to today’s highs, so a “rest” would not be out of the question. A consolidation above the 50 day MA for a day or two would be healthy and set up some nice spots on the charts. I will be closely watching the 50 & 20 day MA’s in important names like AAPL (50 day 200.01), GS (20 day 155.53), SPY(111.02), QQQQ (50 day 44.87)and IWM (62.40)to see how things react if we get there.

Know these levels in whatever you are trading they can make for goods spots to buy support on reversals back up through the level.

The charts are pretty messy right now which is why a rest would be helpful. I am including some alerts tonight and they all happen to be longs. To be honest I am not feeling really strong about them because of today’s selloff.

Today’s ORCL chart tells the tale nicely. It looked like it was setting up nicely to take out the 25 level and then rolled over hard.

The spots I am including tonight maybe good as targets or a resistance shorts if tomorrow.

orcl 25

genz 58

cat 59

spw 62

rimm 72

amed 61.75

anss 45

ctxs 42.55

driv 28.15

hig 26

idcc 26.63

jec 40

joyg 53

nmm 16

sbux 23.5

slab 46.42

2010-03-01T20:49:00.000-05:00

A good day all things considered. The SPY closed the day solidly above the 50 day MA and a look under the hood shows some strength. Small caps (IWM), mid caps (MDY) and home builders (XHB) all outperformed on decent volume and are closing in on their 2009 highs.

Retail (RTH) and consumer discretionary (XLY) are already through their 2009 highs.

I continue to have a bullish bias and will be watching the 50 day MA’s in all of the sectors on any pull back to make sure they hold.

The SPY leg of the TBT/SPY trade is starting to work nicely and hopefully TBT hold above 46.40 and keep that leg of the trade on.

The charts are a little messy after today’s action but I do have a few long and shorts that look clean.

Remember that the numbers I show are important levels to the stock or etf. I may have it marked as a short or long but the level can easily be a spot to fade the move. For example I had GVA 27.14 marked down as a short yesterday. It turned out to be the dead low of the day and the stock rallied $1 off of that level. There are important levels out there and you need to be aware of them. P.S. I got short down there didn’t like the action covered and tried to get long but I missed it, you win some you lose some.

Here are a few of the spots I like for tomorrow, as always use reasonable stops.

bke 30 long

gnk 21.5 long

zion 19 long

bdx 79 long

orcl 25 long

fst 28 long

biib 57 long

bucy 64.39 long

foe 9 long

genz 58 long

joyg 52 long

gpn 42.5 short

gme 17 short

gva 27.14 short

2010-02-28T15:16:00.000-05:00

Snowicane helped keep the action in the market pretty quiet on Friday. The index’s were about as flat as they could be on below average volume. I think that was probably helpful. If we are going to break out of this range I would like to see it on some volume and conviction.

AAPL which has been a pretty good market tell closed above its 50 day MA for the 1st time in a month and that may be an indication that the market is also ready to break out of this range. The SPY closed right under the 50 day (110.99) and it looks like any breakout above 111.75 is blue sky.

TLT broke above the down trend line I have been watching and the TBT bounced right of the trend line on the weekly chart. Any more strength in the bond market and this leg will be stopped out. I think TBT below 46.40 closes this leg of the trade. The SPY leg is still working.

We have personal income & outlays at 8:30 and ISM mfg, construction spending at 10:00 barring any big negative numbers here we should be able to take out the 50 day MA on the SPY and breakout of this range. In the mean time keep your eye on the MA’s in all the important stocks/etf’s and anything you are trading.

Right now I have a bullish bias but I am including some support break shorts in case things get ugly.

bke 30 long

rah 67 long

amzn 121 long

cnx 51 long

zion 19 long

brcm 32 long

bcr 84 long

bdx 79 long

cmp 76 long

orcl 25 long

gme 17 short

gpn 42.5 short

gva 27.14 short

2010-02-25T21:21:00.002-05:00

The market opened down hard on the durable goods orders and jobless claims. As it turns out the SPY put in its low for the day at 9:46 holding the 20 day MA (108.96) and then rallying later in the day closing at the highs just below the 50 day MA (111.02). We are still stuck in this range and technically in no man’s land until we break one of the levels. It does however make for some decent trading opportunities, if you can pick up shares around the moving averages and then have the patience to hold on. I caution that this will not last for long and we need to continually monitor these MA’s until one of them gives.

Today’s come back was pretty impressive and came on some decent volume which was also encouraging. The TBT/SPY trade is still intact but another day of strength in the bond market and the TBT leg will likely be stopped out, but the SPY leg is still working. Today’s rally and the bullish charts I mentioned yesterday (IWM, IYR, IYT, IYR, XLY, XRT) make me feel better about this leg of the trade.

I can’t stress enough the importance of the moving averages (20,50,150,200) in the stocks, indexs and etf’s that you are trading. In a market that is trying to find a direction these levels are crucially important. If you are involved in a name you need to know these levels. Go through your charts from today and see how many stocks bounced off of or stopped at the 20 or 50 day MA you will be surprised. For illustration look at the SPY 20 day MA (108.96) low of the day 108.94 and ORCL 50 day MA (24.20) low of the day 24.21 and AAPL 50 day MA (202.91) high of the day 202.86. These are just three examples but there are dozens out there.

The snowicane here in the northeast will probably keep me from trading tomorrow but I do have a few ideas that I like.

aet 30ish long

anf 36.25 long

bke 30 long

gpn 42.5 short

rah 67 long

2010-02-24T22:29:00.000-05:00

Today was basically a mirror image of yesterday. The 50 day MA once again kept a lid on the SPY, QQQQ and literally hundreds of other stocks and etf’s. AAPL also managed to make it back into to the range between the 20 & 50 day MA. If you are actively trading stocks my best suggestion is to know where these levels are and have them on your platform at all times. If/when you see multiple stocks in your sector starting to break one of the ranges you will have your tell on what way the market is breaking.

Again like I said it was a mirror image of yesterday. Financials and real estate lead the way with the solars oil holders and gold miners lagging.

TBT bounced off of the 150 day MA and the TLT roughly stopped at the 20/50 day MA today so this should be a good test of the TBT/SPY trade.

The trend lines I wrote about in this trade thesis are still intact, down trend in TLT, uptrend in the TBT and 150 day MA in SPY. That coupled with what look like some bullish charts in leading sectors (IWM, IYR, IYT, IYR, XLY, XRT) makes me believe this trade will work out.

Until the market breaks out of it’s current choppy range SPY 20 day (111.03), 50 day (108.91) trade quick and don’t press.

Tomorrow brings durable goods and jobless claims Friday hosts GDP, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment and existing home sales. Hopefully some there will break this market out of it range.

Again I don’t have a lot that I feel comfortable sharing with you because the markets are such a mess but I will be trying the following if the set up on good volume.

gnk 20 short

swn 42 short

au 34.5 short

brcm 32 long

2010-02-23T21:10:00.001-05:00

A weak day in the markets thanks to an abysmal consumer confidence number. Materials, solars and steel lead the way down with fixed income and the dollar rallying.

AAPL went right through his 20 day MA (198.75) and underperformed both the SPY & QQQQ. Neither of those closed below their 20 day MA, so I am wondering if this uncoupling means that AAPL is losing some of his leadership. This merits watching.

The flight to quality today definitely did not help my SPY/TBT trade but again this is a longer term idea and I want to see if Bernanke’s testimony tomorrow changes anything.

The charts are a mess right now, so I don’t have anything that I really feel comfortable sharing tonight. I will just note that even though today felt pretty ugly the SPY is still trading between its 50 day (111.02) and 20 day (108.84) so today’s action got us right back to where we were about a week ago.

The Durable Goods number is tomorrow morning along with jobless claims and Bernanke, and Friday brings GDP, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment and existing home sales. Hopefully these numbers can get us broken out of this range.

2010-02-22T20:52:00.002-05:00

All things considered it was a quiet lackluster day with light volume. Financials, metals &mining and transports outperformed, while the energy patch and solars trailed but mostly dips were bought and breakout levels were sold.

The SPY tried to pull away from the 50 day MA but light volume and mixed market kept the SPY basically inside Friday’s range.

I still believe AAPL is one of the key stocks in the market right now and he is stuck between his 20 day (199.05) and 50 day (202.69). One of these levels is going to give and it should be a good tell for the market. Have both these levels on your trading platform and monitor them until something gives. He tested the 20 day today and it held, so my guess is we are going to try that 50 day next and we will see what happens.

I was a little disappointed in the market reaction to the Fed decision to raise the discount rate and its effect on my TBT/SPY trade, but this is a longer term idea and I think the thesis is still intact.

I will continue to monitor it and if anything changes I will let you know.

The market is trying to figure out what it wants to do and the key tell to that will be AAPL, until something happens take it easy and wait for really quality set ups.

Following are some of my alerts for tomorrow. They all happen to be longs but given the punky nature of this market these levels may turn out to be places to fade the move and not look for a break out. As always look for good volume and use reasonable stops.

adp 42

hmin 35

ipi 29

cnx 51

iag 15.5

nem 49

pru 50

rost 47.4

slab 46.5

teva 60

tsco 54

var 49

wsm 21

2010-02-18T21:59:00.002-05:00

The Federal Reserve Board raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75% this afternoon after the close. This move is small but the message is clear and should help the TBT leg of the SPY/TBT blogged about yesterday. How the SPY leg reacts remains to be seen. I am not sure how much I trust my afterhours pricing data, but it looks like the SPY, XLF and the bigger banks have retraced the gains they had today. It looks like nothing dramatic right now and that makes me optimistic about the SPY leg of the trade. We will see what tomorrow brings.

As I write this the dollar index has broken out of a two week range and appears to be headed to a new resistance level up around 83.20. In the recent past dollar strength has been bearish for equities and commodities. We are going to continue to monitor that and see if that trade is still valid.

GLD has recently made a comeback after bouncing off the 150 day MA back on 2/5. There is some support in it down around 107 (down trend line & 20 day MA) and then again at 105.

USO has support down around 37.50 (150 & 50 day MA).

I am pleased that the TBT leg of this trade should start working so quickly, but I honestly never thought there was going to be a surprise discount rate hike. It’s amazing what charts tell you without even knowing it.

I will include some trade ideas for tomorrow but I would treat them subject because we don’t know how this Fed news is going to be received yet.

These ideas all happen to longs and could possibly be used as a spot to fade a move. Be sure to look for good volume some setups and keep reasonable stops.

acl 160

aet 30

anf 36

bac 16

bhi 49

cnq 70

rimm 72

2010-02-18T14:30:00.001-05:00

As regular readers of this blog you know that I have been watching the 89 level in TLT for quite a while and have commented on it in the past. I have done some more work on this and it is posted below. It is a bit longer than you are used to some please indulge me.

The trade:

Buy TBT on a breakout above 50 and SPY on a breakout above 110.50 and a breakdown of TLT through $89 in. Because these are highly liquid products and the trade is essentially a market bet a larger position can be taken. An equal dollar amount of each product should be put on.

Expected return: 7.50% on the SPY leg and 9% on the TBT leg. The SPY Price target is 120 and the TBT price target is 55. Partials can be taken at these levels and then the trade and stops should be reassessed. The SPY leg should be stopped out on any close below the 150 day MA (106.63) for a 3.5% loss and the TBT leg should be stopped out on any close below 48.50 (break of the 50 day MA) for a 3% loss.

Potential Risks: Risks to this trade are primarily flight to quality based. Also any meaningful change in the Fed’s stance articulated today’s FOMC minutes about looking to end quantitative easing would have a negative effect. A run to US Treasuries and out of equities would cause this trade to be unprofitable.

Expected Duration: Six to Eight weeks

Trade Thesis:

Since the market low in March 09 there have only been 2 meaningful pullbacks in the market a 9.48% correction (top to bottom) during the weeks of 6/5/09 and 7/10/09 and more recently a 9.17% correction from the weeks of 1/15/10 to 2/5/10.

Preceding both of those selloffs the etf TLT broke $89 (on the downside) but immediately snapped back and sell off in equities occurred. After the June/July selloff the SPY made it back to its previous high within two weeks. I believe we are in the second week of the recovery after the selloff.

Following the FOMC minutes today the TLT closed the day at 89.34 down 1.12% on the heavier than average volume.

It is my belief that the selloff in bonds came after a wave of fear had hit the market. The GM bankruptcy and issues regarding Fiat’s purchase of Chrysler were issues in June and fears over Greece et al were the problem more recently. A buy the rumor sell the news trade in the bond market if you will. Yields subsequently got pushed up to almost 4.8%. Equities were sold to buy bonds and hence the selloff.

In the Fed minutes today the Fed gave some tough talk on unwinding “quantitative easing”. The next two days bring PPI, jobless claims, leading indicators, the Philly Fed and CPI#’s. Benign numbers from those indicators coupled with some positive earnings will likely have the TLT break 89 on the downside again but this time I expect a rally in equities.

Why? A different kind of fear, this time we are coming off of an almost 10% correction in the SPY. That was not the case the last two times. Bulls want to buy the pull backs in this market now, the correction has come and gone and they have missed their chance. On top of that the Fed has signaled their desire to tighten and has sent a message of lower bond prices not higher. That was also not the case in the past.

2010-02-15T22:06:00.002-05:00

The last time we had a 10ish% pullback in the SPY was during the weeks of 6/19/09 and 7/10/09.Back in the middle of July it took less than two weeks to recoup the 10%ish pull back; we will see what happens this time.

You can make the argument that the SPY broke the down trend line on Thursday and Friday and that we are in the clear to move higher. I am not going to say we didn’t, I just would have liked to see more enthusiasm in the market when we did. However, we were looking down the barrel of a three day weekend and Greece so I will wait for tomorrow and see what happens.

With that said, under the hood some of the etfs I track that came in and tested the 150 day MA during this sell off have started to pull away from the 150 day and look like they want to move higher.

IWM (small caps), IYR (real estate), JJC (copper), KOL(coal), MDY(mid caps), QQQQ (NASDAQ 100), RSP (S&P Equal weight), RTH (retail), SLX(Steel), XLI (Industrials), XLP (Consumer Staples) and XME(Metals & Mining) all have some nice day light between them and the 150 day now.

Friday was a quiet and whippy day ahead of a three day weekend so I don’t really want to put too much into it. I continue to watch the 150 day MA on the SPY (106.36) to see if we bounce when we get close and I will feel a whole lot better about being long when the low of the day in the SPY is 108 and we close up around the 20 day MA (109.35).

2010-02-11T22:16:00.003-05:00

A 1% rally in the SPY today materials, coal, steel metals and miners lead the way. A number of the commodity etfs have broken their down trend lines and appear to be headed back up to test the 20 & 50 day MA’s. You can make the argument that SPY broke it’s down trend line as well but I definitely would have liked to see better volume.

Fixed income etfs were among the worst performing etfs today due to a bond auction that Rick Santelli rated an F.

The SPY continues to respect the 150 day MA and bounced off it again today almost to the penny. This is a level that is going to have to be monitored until we either break down through it or start to pull away and trade convincingly above the down trend line.

The other spot I am watching closely is the 89 level on TLT. Two poor bond actions in a row is getting us close to the 89 level and I want to see if we break snap back and have equities come for sale like the last two times or if it sparks a rally.

Considering the concerns over sovereign debt out there, I am not sure how a poorly received US treasury auction can be, but I am not panicking just yet. The stock I watch, especially the material and commodity space, feel like they want to break out of their recent slump and move higher. However, I would like to see the SPY hold on 107.50 and for some volume to coming pouring to make me feel better about this move.

I may be crazy but I think the following levels are important on a macro basis and need to be watched.

$ Index 80.68/79.56 break of recent range

GDX 44.80 breaks out above the 50 day MA

VXX 33.05 50 day MA

AAPL 200/190.25

SPY 109/106.23

TLT 91/89

2010-02-10T21:29:00.000-05:00

I didn’t trade today because of the snow but it looks like it was a pretty quiet market. The SPY effectively traded in a $1.25 range with solars, steel and junk bonds the weak sectors. While the brokers, banks and agribusiness sectors lead.

The SPY bounced off the 150 day MA (106.10) this morning and is pinned between it and a down trend line stretching back to January 19th. This should resolve its self in the next few days but in the mean time keep an eye on these two levels. My belief is that we are going to need some good strength and volume to get through that down trend. If the market fails at the line we may just simply ride the trend line down until we get to the 200 day MA (102.38).

There was a poorly received bond auction today and the TLT sold hard in reaction. It closed at 90.40 and has pulled away from its trend line but is now closing in on the 89 level. I will be monitoring it to see if it is still significant.

The SPY trend line/MA issue will resolve itself soon enough so be patient until it does because we will probably have choppy quiet trading until then unless Iran decides to do something silly tomorrow.

2010-02-10T14:04:00.001-05:00

On Sunday I wrote about the down trend line in the TLT. My thought was that as fear comes into the market investors sell equities and buy government bonds. The down trend line represent the decrease in fear and the corresponding rally in the stock market.

As equities were selling off early yesterday, major financial stocks were closing in on last Fridays lows, because of fears over Greece. The TLT was closing in on that down trend line, and was in danger of breaking through it and have equities take another leg down. Things were about to get a little scary when a “news release” came out saying that Germany was going to bailout Greece, sparking a massive rally in the stock market. As it turns out the t “news release “was not true no deal had been reached, but the down trend line remained intact and the market rallied.

This only reinforces in my min d that the trend line is significant and needs to be continually monitored.

I will also be watching the 89 level on TLT below to see if still matters.

2010-02-08T20:42:00.000-05:00

A quiet and choppy market down day; considering we had such a strong close I think the bulls were hoping for more. It is kind of a standoff in the market right now. The SPY is stuck between the January 29th close (107.39) the 150 day MA 105.84 and Fridays low 104.58. This will resolve itself at some point but until then I expect more chop. Until we close above 109 on the SPY I am probably going to be short biased.

If today’s action is what passes for a continuation rally in the market then we are headed lower and the next stop for the SPY is the 200 day MA down around 102.

The DJIA closed below 10,000 today for the first time since November; it’s good for headlines and little else. A much bigger deal would be if it closed below Fridays low and the 150 day MA roughly 9800.

Not much action in the TLT today but I am going to continue to monitor the trend lines I wrote about yesterday and see if they are significant. It looks like 92.50 is the breakout level on TLT and I will be watching that closely.

If you are actively trading be patient and don’t get chopped up these levels will resolve themselves soon enough.

2010-02-07T13:17:00.001-05:00

On Sunday January 24th I wrote the following: “Back on January 6th I wrote about TLT for the 1st time. I made the observation that back in June the TLT broke 89 on the downside and snapped right back but the SPY went down for the rest of the month. It was about a 10% correction from top to bottom 96.11 to 87.

TLT broke 89 on January 8th the day before the SPY put in it’s high 115.13: I know we ticked at 115.14 on 1/14, but its close enough. A correction of similar magnitude now, would get us down around 104.20 which as it turns out roughly coincides with the 150 day MA on the SPY 104.56. I think that may be where we are headed. “The low tick on the SPY Friday was 104.58 and we have had 4 red bars on the SPY weekly chart. The question now is where we go from here.

Sovereign debt worries are being blamed for this most recent selloff and the strength in the dollar. I wrote on Thursday that it appeared we were headed for about 80.61 on the dollar index and Fridays high was 80.68 so the strong dollar weak equties trade still seems to be in tact.

When fear comes into the market and investors run away from risk they have traditionally gone to fixed income, specifically US treasuries. The TLT is an etf that tracks 20+ year Treasuries. At the height of the financial panic in late 08 and early 09 the TLT was trading over $120; it closed Friday at 91.99. This sell off has created a nice clear down trend line on the weekly chart going back to December 08. There is also one on the daily chart going back to10/02/09. Recent strength in the bonds has us bumping up against both down trend lines. I will be monitoring these levels to see if we can break through them on the upside and maybe have a selloff in equities or if we don’t have what it takes to get through and rollover and may be get a rally in stocks. The TLT is also trading between its 20 and 50 day MA’s and we will need to see if they act as support or resistance levels.

Stocks and etf’s too numerous to mention bounced off of the important ma’s (150 & 200 mostly) on very heavy volume. The heaviest volume I have seen on the upside in quite some time. My feeling is that we have put in at least a short term bottom. I am not sure what next week is going to bring but we will have to watch Friday’s lows on any test and be sure they hold.

Once again AAPL told the tale of the market. Early on in the morning he tested the lows from last week, held and bounced hard. As the day went on and the market was weak and looked like it might take a strong leg down: AAPL was trading strong. He never took out last week’s low and when the market rallied he closed the day on the highs.

I expect tomorrow to be a pretty quiet and choppy session as people try to sort out what happened on Friday and see if it is for real. I don't have any clean alert levels for tomorrow but I will be trying to pick up some longs as they bounce of f of the MA's and try some resistance shorts if the market can make its way back up Thursday’s highs around SPY 109. I know that is pretty vague but the charts are a mess right now.

2010-02-04T22:32:00.002-05:00

In a word it was ugly. For some perspective, I have 275 equities on my watch list 247 of them were negative 6 six positive and the rest were flat.

Basic materials (UYM), big caps (BGU) and solars (tan) had the worst of it; while the dollar index and fixed income outperformed. For additional perspective every etf I watch that tracks an equity sector or index was down on the day.

Not that it really matters technically but the DJIA closed right on 10,000 and that is good for a lot of chatter and headlines.

The “Lehman Gap” on the SPY occurred during the week of 10/3/08, the dollar index closed that week at 80.61. The high in the index today was 80.28 and it seems we are bound for at least that level if this risk aversion trade continues. Dollar strength has equaled equity weakness recently.

Like everyone else I have been waiting for the famous “10% correction” and it appears that we are in the midst of it. My belief is that we are headed for at least the November lows in the major index’s which would roughly coincide with the 150 day MA’s and then October lows which would bring us down around the 200 day MA’s. We are not going to go there in a straight line but that appears to be the glide path now.

Employment Situation numbers are out at 8:30 tomorrow morning and should set the tone for early trading. If we gap down hard after the number my plan is to let the dust settle a bit see if we hold and then try and pick up some shares on the important MA’s. If we gap up then I am going to be looking to get short if the market starts to roll.

Watch last Friday slows in the indexes and whatever you may be trading, it is important that they hold.

Following is some of the levels I will be watching. They either represent last week’s low and major support or important moving averages.

aapl 190.25

bac 14.68

c 3.13

cat 51

ge 16

gs 147.81

jpm 38.07

x 43.75

qqqq 42.08

smh 24.3

spy 105.62

uym 25.19

xle 53.26

2010-02-03T22:05:00.000-05:00

The markets were decidedly mixed. Solar’s, tech and ag’s were up with real estate, silver and steel down on the dollar index strength.

Aapl rallied back through lesser resistance at 197 but mostly respected the 200 level but QQQQ 44 and GS 160 were a brick wall.

It looks like the CSCO #’s will take the QQQQ back up through 44 so the next level we will want to watch is 44.83 the 50 day MA.

My guess is that tomorrow will be much like the rest of the week; a lackluster trading environment where you buy weakness and sell strength until a major level is broken.

I actually expected a little more out of this week but it has been pretty rangy so far.

The daily charts are still a bloody mess and I don’t feel comfortable making breakout or break down calls. Watch the MA’s above and last Fridays lows below in most anything you are trading.

The only thing I will leave you with is the TLT. As you may recall I wrote about the TLT breaking 89 (on the downside) and how the market sold off for a month in June. The TLT closed today at 90.33 down 1.18% on a huge bar of volume. Maybe we got to keep an eye on that 89 level again.