I just noticed an error from last nights post.

"jblu 13.05 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA" should be

luv 13.05 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

Sorry for any confusion.

km

It was kind of an odd day today, the good news is the SPY gapped up above the 20 day MA, stayed there and traded decent volume; the bad news is that some important names in the commodity space got crushed today. Some of this was related to the oil spill in the gulf, but I was surprised that the market held up as well as it did.


For example take a look at CAM, WLT, RIG, DO, HAL&PCX. It didn’t really affect the market today so I don’t know why it would tomorrow, but keep an eye on the energy sector. Also take note of how little important MA’s mean in a high volume news driven environment. No catching knives!!!!!!

I am sure a lot of money was made and lost in these names today but it’s really not my game. When I trade I want important defined levels for my entry a good sense of where my stop should be and profit targets. The only one of these names that I traded successfully today was WLT. All credit goes to the guys at High Chart Patterns. If you are not familiar with them become so, they have be invaluable to my trading. At around 10:00 they tweeted “HCPG http://chart.ly/aezpdt $WLT - WLT through 88, whenever that may be, is now a great short spot. Add alert. “And boy was it ever, all gain and no pain, thanks guys. The moral of the story is stick to important levels on the charts, don’t buy or sell something because it “looks good here”. 88 was below the 50 day MA and the break of a 3 day range.

The GDP &employment cost index are at 8:30 tomorrow, Chicago PMI at 9:45 and consumer sentiment is at 9:55 so ease into the day tomorrow. The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but watch out for low volume choppiness especially in the afternoon.

netl 35 long

slb 74 long

x 56 short

anss 44.39 reversal/support buy on 20&50 day MA

gymb 50.05 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

jblu 13.05 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

nyt 9.89 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

podd 13.42 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

pxp 30.22 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sgy 16.45 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

slab 48.37 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

stx 17.66 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sy 42.75 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

v 90.81 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

vit 22.3 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wmt 53.27 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

Gold miners finally had their breakout today up over 3% on the day, ag’s (MOO) and financials (UYG) also fared well, solars and fixed income under performed. We had some action and volatility in the morning, a downgrade of Spain around lunchtime but things settled down in the afternoon, and not even the FED announcement moved the market much.


I felt the most significant thing today was that the high of the day in the SPY was 119.68 just .02 shy of the 20 day MA. SPY closed at 119.60, below the 20 day MA for the first time since the middle of February. We have to monitor the 20 day MA now to see if it acts as a lid. The more time we trade below it the higher the likely hood that we roll over and test the 50 day MA currently (116.37).

There are still a number of important sectors trading above the 20 day MA, small caps(IWM) 71.25, real estate (IYR) 51.73, transports (IYT) 82.53, regional banks(KRE) 27.85, mid caps(MDY) 149.00, home builders (XLB) 18.02, industrials (XLI) 32.15, consumer discretionary (XLY) 34.36 and retail (XRT) 43.23. Keep an eye on some of these levels, if they start to give it up the higher the chance the SPY rolls. Another spot you can use as a market tell is GOOG 520. I don’t suggest you trade this one, but it did have a nice bounce off of this important support level today and needs to hold there.

Despite my caution dip buyers still ruled the market today. For example look at the bounces off important levels in GOOG (support), CLX (50 day), RAX(200 day) & DIG (20 day) just to name a few. Be aware of the moving averages in anything you are trading. Until it stops working try buying the first touch on important moving averages. Just remember no catching falling knives. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news. Allow the stock to break the level and buy it on the way back using the low of the candle as a stop. Also only try this the first time around. The second test of the MA is subject to failure.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

life 54 long

au 41.50ish long

bg 56 short

cni 60 short cover before 50 day at 58.49

exxi 19 short

scco 30 short

sina 35 short

agu 57.21 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

anss 44.25 reversal/support buy on 20&50 day MA

ati 51.3 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bbt 31.34 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bmc 38.64 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cli 35.03 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cnq 73.56 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

expd 38.48 reversal/support buy on 20 day MA

idcc 27.73 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ilmn 36.05 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

luv 13.03 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

nwbi 12.01/11.91 reversal/support buy on 20&50 day MA

nyt 9.86 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

sy 42.7 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

teva 56.49 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

vit 22.18 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

vrsn 26.23 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wll 80.09 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wmt 53.25 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

Obviously an ugly day in the markets, I have been expecting something like this to happen but in truth not today, not the day before a Fed meeting. Basic materials (UYM) real estate (URE) and financials (UYG) saw the worst of the selling, with gold (GLD,) fixed income (TLT, AGG, SHY) fairing best.


This selloff today was hard on large caps and we saw weak bounces off of important moving averages in names like AA, JPM, while other names closed right on the MA and made those support/resistance buys tough (BAC&AET for example). I am not expecting real ugliness tomorrow ahead of the announcement but be well aware of the MA’s and today’s lows in anything you are trading. Homebuilders (XHB), energy (XLE), industrials (XLI), technology (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY) and retail (XRT) all closed above the 20 day MA and you can make the argument that this is bullish or that there is more work to do on the down side in important sectors. I think there is more work to do. We could get a bounce in the SPY back up to the 20 day MA (119.60) but they are going to have to do some real work to keep SPY above that level and I that we are headed for a test of the 50 day MA (116.17).

This selloff comes at a tough time because tomorrow is Fed day which is usually marked by low volume and increased volatility after the announcement. I often take the day off because it can be such a pain but I will be in tomorrow. There should be some residual action in the morning as people square up positions, but don’t press too hard before the announcement; there should be plenty of opportunity later this week to take advantage of this sell off if it is for real.

The following ideas could be actionable tomorrow but be careful of light volumes and whippy action. Use reasonable stops and when buying pullbacks don’t catch a falling knife. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news. Allow the stock to break the level and buy it on the way back using the low of the candle as a stop. Also only try this the first time around. The second test of the MA is subject to failure.

a 37 long

abx 42 long

aem 62ish long

nem 54 long

amgn 57 short

bg 56 short

hum 43 short cover before the 200 day MA 41.59

agu 57.09 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

amg 78.21 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

apc 66.35 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

bbt 31.23 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

clf 65.14 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

clx 63.22/63 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cni 58.32/58 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

cnq 73.43 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ilmn 36.05/36.02 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

jbl 15.38 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

luv 13.02 reversal/support buy on 50 MA

nwbi 12 reversal/support buy on 20&50 and previous resistance day MA

rax 18.07 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

wmt 53.23 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

It was a pretty lackluster day all things considered, but there was some real weakness in financials especially the regional banks (KRE) which have had a really nice run. Consumer discretionary, retail and real estate all out performed but they were all up less than 1%.


The thing that stood out to me today was the weakness in GS and GOOG. As you know there are certain stocks that I consider to be psychologically important for the market, GS and GOOG fall into that category. GS broke down through the 155 level which was the low from the first two days after the news of the SEC charges broke. It was an important level; the next support lies down around 150, the February lows. GOOG had a weak bounce off of its 200 day MA and then closed below it for the 1st time in a year. This further evidence that some of the momentum is coming out of the market.

Case Shiller HPI is out at 9:00 and consumer confidence at 10:00 but I am not expecting them to have any measurable effect on the market. I think before the FOMC announcement you are going to have pretty much what you saw today. The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but don’t press. This choppy action is a pain in the short term but is giving the market a chance to rest and set up some levels for later in the week.

abx 42 long

aem 62ish long

gg 41 long

luv 14 long

sun 32 long

wlt 99.5 long

esrx 105 long

mfe 42 long

hgsi 27.37 long

ilmn 36.10/35.96 reversal/support buy on 150&200 day MA

aet 29.8 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

agu 60.43 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

dgx 56.65 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

hum 41.53 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

jpm 42.98 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

Corey Rosenbloom from the Afraid to Trade blog has put up another outstanding blog post this time on gold. It dovetails nicely with my earlier post. If you expect to be trading gold or any of the gold names this week I suggest you read Corey's post.

Weakness in the dollar index, lead to a strong rally in the commodity complex Friday. DIG, UYM & OIH were all up over 3% followed closely by XME and XLE which were also up over 2%. There was some weakness in retailers and consumer staples but nothing to get excited about.


There was some decent action in the morning and then things quieted down in the afternoon with a slow grind up to new 2010 highs at the end of the day. This is still a strong tape and is showing no signs of giving it up.

GLD had a nice bounce off of the 20 day MA and looks like it may want to break out of range that goes back to December. Keep an eye on the $114 level. You may recall that Soros doubled his position in GLD and that story is sure to get a lot of play if GLD starts to breakout.

The earnings parade continues but there are no economic announcements Monday and a Fed announcement Wednesday so be picky in your trading early this week.

The following ideas may be actionable:

abx 42 long

aem 62ish long

wcrx 28 long

asia 30 long

fnsr 14.47 long

gg 41 long

luv 14 long

netl 34 long

nfx 57 long

nsc 61 long

hgsi 27.32 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

ilmn 36.10/35.96 reversal/support buy on 200&150 day MA

The market opened weak this morning bring the SPY down as low as 119.12 and effectively testing the 20 day MA before President Obama once again gave a speech saving the market and humanity. SPY closed the day at the highs just .50 shy of the 2010 highs, watch SPY 121.57.


Homebuilders (XHB), real estate (URE) and regional banks (KRE) lead the day all up 3% with pharma(PPH), healthcare (XLV) and silver (SLV) among the weakest groups.

The market is still well bid and is respecting technical’s go through your charts and see how many names bounced off of or stopped at important moving averages. In this environment I can’t stress enough how important these levels are.

For informational purposes small caps (IWM),real estate ( IYR), regional banks( KRE), mid caps (MDY), NASDAQ (QQQQ) ,retail(RTH), home builders ( XHB) and consumer discretionary( XLY), all put in new 2010 highs today.

I am not sure what to make of tomorrow. We have a FOMC announcement and GDP next week so I don’t know if we are going to get one last flurry of activity before things go quiet or if folks are just going to pack it in early and enjoy the weather. Either way I am still leaning to the bullish side until we break the 20 day MA on SPY with some authority.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but don’t press especially as the day goes on, I think things will be pretty quiet in the afternoon.

a 36.5 long

apa 109 long

atw 38 long

hmin 35.5 long

xlu 30.5 long

asia 30 long

biib 51.14 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ilmn 36 reversal/support buy on 150 &200 day MA

mee 40.52 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

I know a lot of traders were looking for AAPL to set the tone for today and as such were expecting a much better day than they got. Even with AAPL 5.58% gain NASDAQ closed with only a .17% gain and the S&P was down 0.10% a mixed performance overall. The old Wall Street saying “sell in May and go way” occurred to me during the day and you can expect to hear that TV by the end of the week.


I continue to be cautious because some of the bigger stocks that I consider to be market and economic bellwethers have not been acting well lately. For example WMT is trading right on its 50 Day MA, BAC & JPM have broken a nice up trend line going back to the February low and are right on the 20 day MA. POT is right on the 150 day MA, QCOM is down over 9% AH and is below the 200 day MA. GS has its legal issues and even a strong quarter couldn’t get it going, it is important that GS hold the 155 level. I write this not as a chicken little the sky is falling warning I just like to be aware of the macro environment and I consider these levels to be important. We could easily bounce off of these levels and be off to the races.

With that said the market is still chugging along. Selloffs are short and shallow and some import sectors continue to make new highs. Away from AAPL, small caps (IWM), regional banks (KRE), retail (RTH), home builders (XHB) and consumer discretionary (XLY) all put in new 2010 highs today. So I continue to trade from the long side and look to buy on pullbacks to MA’s.

Along with the parade of earnings this week we have PPI and jobless claims tomorrow at 8:30, Existing home sales at 10:00 and a speech by President Obama at 11:55, be aware.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow. As always know where the important moving averages are and use reasonable stops.

apol 66 long

esrx 105 long

rs 54 long

sbux 26 long

wfsl 21 long

ilmn 37 short cover before 150 day MA 36.13

biib 51.99 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

bucy 65.44 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ctrp 34.53 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

nem 50.5 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

sid 18.33 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

teva 61.44 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

The market gapped open this morning and effectively traded in a .50 range for the rest of the day. It was a quiet day ahead of the AAPL numbers. As I write this it appears they like the AAPL numbers and it is trading around 259 up about $14 from the close. That has the QQQQ and the SPY trading close to the 2010 highs, let’s see what tomorrow brings. I want to see if AAPL has enough to bring the broader market to new 2010 highs with it.


Today’s gap up and sideways action provided little opportunity to buy on dips, but at the same time the breakouts that did trigger were mixed genz (failed) srcl (.12 gain). My point is, in this quiet choppy market be picky.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow. I am going to have a close eye on AAPL to see if he is driving the market tomorrow, but there is a good chance that he does his own thing and the market just trades on.

apol 66 long

cern 90 long

driv 32 long

stx 20 long

ads 68.5 long

apa 109 long

dlb 60 long

luv 14/13.95 long

rost 57 long

shld 111.5 long

slb 68 long

ilmn 37 short            cover before the 150 day MA 36.13

aa 13.41 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ati 50/49.68 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

bucy 65.1 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

enr 59.84 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

infy 59.04 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

tck 40.38 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wdc 37.39 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

To me the market felt weaker than the index’s showed. Decliners led advancers and on my watch list only 84 of 275 stocks were green, with that said the NSDAQ composite is still above the 20 day MA and the S&P bounced off the 20 day MA, on cue ,with a nice little rally in the last hour to close the day green. 1184, the 20 day MA, is now an important spot for the S&P (SPY 118.46).

Some of the commodities had a tough time today, steel, coal and crude all trailed while financials, real estate and pharma were among the leaders.

Due to this GS situation and all of the earnings this week the market seems to be pretty tentative. Breakouts by and large did not work today (PNRA,SYNA) and buying support was mixed and took a while to work.

My plan for tomorrow is going to be much the same as it was today, wait for the dust to settle form the open and try and buy selectively on support levels and MA’s. I will also have a close eye on the recent lows in the important stocks and etf’s to make sure the recent lows hold if tested (GS 155, AAPL 243ish, SPY 118.46, QQQQ 48.72 and IWM 69.63).

There are enough alerts on MA’s for tomorrow that you can well afford to let one or two pass and make sure that support buys are working. Remember no catching falling knives. Look for the stock to come into the level vertically on light volume and no news; let it penetrate the level and snap back up through it. Buy on the way back up and use the low as your stop. Only try this the first time around and if one after another are going through the level like they are not even there, stay away.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

apol 66 long

cern 90 long

driv 32 long

genz 54 long

srcl 56 long

stx 20 long

xec 65 long

bhi 47 short

aa 13.39 support/reversal but on 200 day

agu 60.05 support/reversal but on 150 day

apc 70.55 support/reversal but on 50 day

ati 50/49.47 support/reversal but on 50 day

ato 28.53 support/reversal but on 150 day

bucy 64.73 support/reversal but on 50 day

clf 61.88 support/reversal but on 50 day

cli 34.38 support/reversal but on 50 day

csiq 19.95 support/reversal but on 200 day

ctsh 50.07 support/reversal but on 50 day

ctxs 46.07 support/reversal but on 50 day

de 58.22 support/reversal but on 50 day

jbl 15.2 support/reversal but on 150 day

jcg 42 support/reversal but on 150 day

mbt 53.94 support/reversal but on 50 day

sid 18.15 support/reversal but on 50 day

wdc 37.32 support/reversal but on 200 day

wlt 85.99 support/reversal but on 50 day

Well it had to happen at some point. An actual honest to God down day in the market, I almost forgot what it was like. In the history of Wall Street selloffs Friday’s action was nothing. The SPY was down 1.44% Friday and actually closed only .16 lower than Mondays open so the week was basically a push.


GS was down 12.33% on heavy volume and closed below all the important MA’s. The low for the day in GS was 155.55 so keep an eye on that spot. There is some import support down around the 150 level (the February lows) keep an eye on that as well.

Away from GS the sell off was hard on commodities, financials and real estate but most of those groups found support on the 20 day MA. Individual financials had a nice bounce off the 20 day MA BAC &BBT are excellent examples of this action, and it may set the tone for next week.

I’m not sure what Monday will bring, but I think a gap down into support would probably be the best case scenario. We shake out the weak hands build a base and then grind em higher. A gap up open will probably be sold so be cautious there.

I will be very selective Monday until we sort things out but my plan is to try and pick up stocks on moving averages and prior breakouts which are now support. Be patient with this, if you start to see a stocks bounce off of MA’s, especially in the same sector, than give it a try. If one after another goes right through the MA like it wasn’t even there stay away. Remember don’t catch falling knives. If you are trying to buy on a support level or MA wait for the stock to go down through the level, vertically on light volume and then buy it on the way back up through the level. Use the bottom of that candle as a stop. Also you only do this the first time around; second touches on the MA or the support level are prone to failure.

The following ideas may be actionable on Monday but use caution.

apol 66 long

cern 90 long

driv 32 long

pnra 84 long

srcl 56 long

stx 20 long

syna 30 long

xec 65 long

aa 13.38 support/reversal buy on 200 day MA

abx 38.1 support/reversal buy on 200 day MA

aem 58 support/reversal buy on 20 & 50 day MA

agu 59.97 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

ato 28.53 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

biib 51.93 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

gdx 44.69 support/reversal buy on 200 day MA

gww 99.57 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

hig 26.34/25.78 support/reversal buy on 50 &150 day MA

mee 40.19 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

pot 104.43 support/reversal buy on 200 day MA

spg 80.6 support/reversal buy on 50 day MA

sun 28.06 support/reversal buy on 150 day MA

We had another up day on modest volume and volatility. The solars, transports and industrials lead with real estate, steel and home builders trailing. The weakness and heavy volume in the real estate names really stood out to me on the charts tonight. IYR is closing in on its 20 day MA (50.92) keep it on your platform and see what happens if we get there. My guess is it gets bought the first time around, but use more caution if it goes crashing through there.


Tomorrow is Friday and the economic calendar is light right through to the PPI # next Thursday so take it easy don’t press, just trade quality set ups.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

mbt 59

srcl 56

stx 20

tii 20

mmm 85 this is a minor spot

hoc 25.53 reversal/support buy on 200 day

I have been watching the following gold stocks for a while, AEM, ABX & GG. They are stuck between moving averages below and a breakout level above. I am putting two levels on here, the break out level and the moving average reversal/support buy level. If you see one of them testing the support level and go crashing through it like it wasn’t even there then don’t try and buy the others on support, common sense I know but we all flake out sometimes.

AEM 62 breakout 59.49 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

ABX 42 breakout 39.22 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

GG 41 breakout 39.01 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

INTC and JPM came in with good numbers and helped to drive the market to new 2010 highs on decent volume for a change.


As you would expect semi’s and financials were among the strongest sectors, with pharmaceuticals, healthcare and fertilizers trailing.

It looks like UPS has good things to say after the close so expect more of the same tomorrow.

The market continues to be well bid and I will stay with the trend until it changes, but be nimble this action will not last. If you want to have an eye opener read this post from Dr. Brett Steenbarger on the CBOE Equity Put-Call ratio it will really give you something to think about.

In the mean time up we go. The following ideas may be actionable for tomorrow but as always look for good set ups close to a base and use reasonable stops. Also be on the lookout for failed breakouts. They have been coming in clusters with a following market and it has been about the only way to be short recently.

rax 20 long

ir 38 long

crk 36 long

aem 62 long

gg 41 long

abx 42 long

abfs 31 long

amx 52 long

cnq 80 long

spwra 18 short

gdx 46.43 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

gld 110.07 reversal/support buy on 20 day MA

kmb 60.4 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

This is still an incredibly resilient and strong market, if you are not a believer take a look at GOOG and ISRG today. We opened lower on the AA earnings from yesterday and sold off to the middle of Friday’s range before reversing and closing near the highs. SPY stopped right at yesterday’s high and pulled back a bit on the bell. I entertained the thought of a possible double top, but I think INTC will take of that tomorrow.


Gold (GLD) and the gold miners (GDX) were under pressure for a second day today. Further weakness may bring them into important support levels. The 20 day MA for GLD is 109.93 and the 150 day MA for GDX is 46.41. Keep those levels in GLD & GDX on your platform there will be a lot of eyes on those spots.

For an example of how important these levels can be in commodity names look at USO and OIH today. USO 20 day MA (40.33) (LOD 40.28). OIH 20 day MA (123.86) LOD (123.50).

CPI and retail sales are before the open. Bernanke speaks at 10:00, the petroleum #’s are at 10:30, the Beige book is at 2:00 and JPM reports after the close so be ready for anything.

The charts are pretty messy right now so I have fewer ideas that usual. Remember that breakout/down levels don’t expire. So keep them on your platform until they trigger. Pull back spots to moving averages expire after a day or two.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow:

amgn 61 long

nyt 12 long

rax 20 long

ir 38 long

spwra 18 short

ipi 27.32 reversal/support buy on 200 day ma

wcrx 24.98 reversal/support buy on 150 day ma

wmt 54.44 reversal/support buy on 50 day ma

gdx 56.41 reversal/support buy on 150 day ma

gld 109.93 reversal/support buy on 20 day ma

It was another quiet choppy session on below average volume with the S&P barely positive. Considering the major earnings and economic reports this week it should be expected. I suspect tomorrow will be similar.


Solars, home builders and semis outperformed while copper, gold miners and real estate underperformed.

The apparent resolution of the Greek problems put pressure on the dollar index and it is now back below the 20 & 50 day MA’s. The market didn’t seem to care today we will see if that lasts.

The following idea’s may be actionable tomorrow but be picky this market feels tired and stocks that have broken out have been sloppy and prone to failure. Look for good volume, be nimble and use reasonable stops.

abx 42 long

aem 62 long

amgn 61 long

cf 93 long

gg 41 long

nyt 12 long

rax 20 long

bvn 35.5 long

ge 19 long

ir 38 long

spwra 18 short

agu 66.68 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

hum 43.52 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

Choppiness was the order of the day Friday with a small hook up at the end. Retailers, metals & miners and consumer discretionary were the winners with soalrs, the dollar and crude trailing. I expect much the same on Monday with a light economic calendar and earnings kicking off after the close.


I saw a report tonight that said Soros has doubled the size of his position in GLD. It may explain why I like what I am seeing in the gold names and that three of them have made it onto the list for tomorrow.

The following ideas maybe actionable tomorrow but don’t press I think it is going to be pretty choppy.

aapl 242 long

abx 42 long

aem 62 long

amgn 61 long

bbt 34 long

gg 41 long

nyt 12 long

rax 20 long

scco 35 long

slab 51 long

vmw 55 long

cf 93 long

spwra 18 short

biib 56 short

clx 63 reversal/support buy on prior breakout

hum 43.47 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

sanm 16.08 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

srcl 53.4 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

vrtx 39.13 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

It was a choppy low volume day with financials, homebuilders and retailers leading; while energy lagged.


The market opened weak, below yesterdays low, but slowly rallied throughout the day closing at the highs, but below yesterdays high making three consecutive lower highs and lower lows.

Tomorrow’s economic calendar is light, so I expect similar choppy action for the next couple of sessions, because AA kicks off earning season Monday after the close.

In the mean time I want to keep an eye on this growing trend of lower highs and lower lows. The recent highs (119.36) and 20 day MA (117.07) for SPY will be on a lot of radar screens. My best guess is that the first test of the 20 day MA will be bought, especially if we come into it in vertically on light volume and no news. So be aware of this level and the important MA’s in anything you are trading.

The following ideas may be actionable tomorrow but be on guard for choppy light volume action.

cmtl 33.2 long

gva 31.6 long

mtb 85 long

nfx 56 long

paas 25 long

rax 20 long

slb 67 long

gg 41 long

swk 60 long

amgn 61 long

cell 8 long

sanm 16.03 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

sina 37.79 reversal/support buy on 200 day MA

swks 15.01 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wcrx 24.87 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

An interesting day in the market all things considered, we actually had a down day, some volume and volatility. I almost forgot what it was like. There was a good showing by the gold miners (GDX), solar’s (TAN), and gold (GLD) with real estate (URE) and energy names (DIG, OIH) trailing.


AAPL and GS also put a good show today, AAPL put in a new high (241.92) and GS was up 2.04% on above average volume and is closing in on 178.75. This is an important level for GS and will be a place to watch in the days to come.

This afternoon’s selloff came after SPY&QQQQ tried to make a new 2010 high and failed. It also followed a 10 year bond auction and comments by Bernanke. We have both a 30 year auction and Fed speak tomorrow so be aware.

Those of you that have read this blog for a while have seen me post about TLT and the $89 level. After today’s auction TLT went as high as 88.92 on better than average volume. I think that level in TLT merits our attention especially considering the sell off after today’s auction.

No real technical damage was done in today’s sell off, SPY is still well above its 20 day MA on the daily chart and the 150 day on the weekly chart, but it may have given the bulls something to think about.

Yesterday I wrote “as extended as we are failed breakouts are providing opportunities to flip and get short.” My best trades today came from a couple of failed breakouts and like buying the pullback to an important support level; the failed breakout can be a nice addition to your trading arsenal.

DLB 60, BGC 29 & MMM 84.50 all worked well as failed break outs.

Today’s pullback has set up a number of break out spots, that I have included. Leave them on your platform until they trigger they don’t expire. There are also a couple of shorts and some support/reversal buys. I am not sure what to expect from tomorrow so stay nimble and keep reasonable stops.

gva 31.6 long

abx 41 long

adsk 31 long

cmtl 33.2 long

dlb 60 long

gs 178.75 long

gva 31.6 long

mtb 85 long

nfx 56 long

nsc 58 long

paas 25 long

rax 20 long

slb 67 long

sndk 36.25 long

genz 51 short

gild 45 short

clx 62 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ice 105.2 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

ipi 27.80/.28 reversal/support buy on 27.80 150 day MA 27.28 200 day MA

mos 55.98 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

wcrx 24.83 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

The market continued its low volume grind today but there was some good action being long financials, especially regional banks and short semis and ag names.


As evidenced by names like AA and BBT breakouts are still working, but as extended as we are failed breakouts are providing opportunities to flip and get short. GS for example tried to break out through its 20 day MA (173.82) failed and proceeded to roll over for $1. There are many more examples.

I continue to find many more breakout long alerts than anything else but, we are pretty extended here and this low volume and volatility can’t last. So stay nimble.

intu 35 long

dlb 60 long

rax 20 long

netl 31.5 long

swk 60 long

vlo 21 long

apc 75 long

cnq 80 long

hans 44 long

mtb 85 long

vmw 55 long

ice 105.09 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

pot 114.23 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

A new 2010 high in the SPY today but it was not confirmed by new 2010 highs in AAPL, the NASDAQ composite, iyr, iyt, smh or xlf among others. The SPY was up less than 1% but it was a nice strong trend day none the less with real estate, commodities and materials leading the way.


Bonds of all maturities were down across the board.

TLT closed on the lows of the day and much was made on tv about higher interest rates. We will have to see if the FOMC minutes at 2:00 tomorrow have any effect on the market. Remember that the last time the TLT was down here was back in October 2007 the all time high in the market.

After such a nice strong trend day I wouldn’t be surprised to see some consolidation and choppiness tomorrow, but the following ideas may be actionable. Considering the strength in the market MON 70 short could be a place to look for a support/reversal buy and also watch for failed breakouts as a place to possibly put on a short.

aa 14.82 long

intu 35 long

mmm 84.5 long

amgn 61 long

bbt 33 long

dlb 60 long

rax 20 long

mon 70 short

pot 114.11 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

mos 55.87 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

mtb 77.52 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

I wasn't expecting much on Thursday but as it turns out some important things happened and has given us some important market tells going forward.


The SPY gapped open to a fractionally new 2010 high, and we chopped around above Wednesdays range until about 2:00 when the market started to rollover.

IWM, IYT and IYR ,for example, bounced hard off their 20 day MA's. We came into those levels vertical on light volume and no news, just the way you want to buy a stock on a pullback/reversal you want to see the same thing in the broader market.

On the afraidtotrade.com blog Corey Rosenbloom wrote an outstanding post about the rounded arc forming on NASDAQ index. In that he wrote about the 2380 level as being significant. The low for the day on the NASDAQ was 2383.77.

These levels were on a lot of people’s radar screens and the market acted the way you would want when we got there. A quick touch or spike down through the number, the sellers get exhausted and then a snap back on decent volume. Thursday’s lows and those moving averages need to be watched closely. If we get back down there again things may not go so well next time.

One of the things that was less obvious was the TLT. Readers of this blog may remember my observations about the 89 level on TLT and the subsequent market selloff's. I almost missed it but TLT closed below 89 on the weekly chart for the first time since the week of 10/12/07 the same week as the all time high in the SPY.

I am not suggesting that the end is near I am just saying that this is something that merits some close attention. AAPL is at all time highs in front of the Ipad launch with the 3rd largest market cap in the country yet GS can barely bounce off of its 150 day MA. Is one of these stocks the canary in the coal mine?

I will continue to closely monitor the dollar index and the TLT. Is the selloff in the bond market going to continue, and if so what implications do those higher rates have. Or could we have something similar to 2007 a rally in the bond market and a big selloff in equities.

The FOMC minutes are due out at 2:00 Tuesday and could easily affect the markets.

I think a lot of kids are out of school next week and that could lead to lower volumes and choppiness so don’t press.

aa 14.82 long

abfs 30.45 long

gww 110 long

hrs 48 long

intu 35 long

sun 31 long

mon 70 short

cf 91.17 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

stx 17.06 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA

swks 14.86 reversal/support buy on 50 day MA

wcrx 24.72 reversal/support buy on 150 day MA